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How does Sarah Palin, assuming she will pursue the GOP nomination for president, overcome the perception–or reality, depending on your point of view–that she isn’t qualified to be president?

According to the new survey from Vanity Fair and CBS News’ 60 Minutes, only 1 in 4 of all adults thinks Palin is qualified to be commander-in-chief while 60 percent say she is not.

By a narrow 47-40 percent margin however, Republicans do feel Palin has the right stuff to be president. But self identified conservatives – constituting the segment of the GOP largely thought to most favor the former Alaska governor – are essentially split 41-40 percent on her abilities to govern the country.

Consider again that data: Conservatives, ie. those most likely to vote in a primary or caucus, are split 41-40 on her abilities to govern the country. Can anyone make an argument this isn’t a huge problem for Palin?

Hillary replacing Joe on the ticket in 2012 is becoming an interesting piece of beltway gossip. Then yesterday I had lunch with someone who’s connected in those circles and, frankly, just knows stuff, and she offered this nugget: “What if Hillary not only resigned from State after midterms and announced her challenge to Obama in 2012, but also named a running mate? Someone steady and moderate, like Evan Bayh. They would campaign together as a ticket from Day 1.”

Thoughts?

Still just flirting? Or is this going to happen?

We are less than 100 days from the 2010 mid-terms. I know you’re all on pins and needles about it! I’m sure November 3rd, the day after the election, all the of the talking heads will REALLY start speculating who will run in the 2012 election for President, and we can pin and needle some more. I’m actually waiting to see who will be crazy enough to announce that day that they are running for POTUS. Insanity all around, especially when there is a White House on the line. Read more

Someone forwarded me the results of this shocking poll from Ron Paul’s official website this morning:

Should Ron Paul run for President in 2012?

* Yes. (94%, 12,878 Votes)
* No. (3%, 451 Votes)
* I don’t know. (1%, 127 Votes)
* It depends. (explain below) (2%, 213 Votes)

Total Voters: 13,669

Come on people, that’s like asking Cleveland Cavalier fans if they think LeBron should return to Cavs.

Or asking Whodat fans if they think he should publish an anthology of his best poems.

Am I the only one who thinks Iowa plays too great a role in determining nominees? I understand the winner in Iowa doesn’t always win the big prize (see Huck 2008) but it’s understood you need a very strong presence and result. But in the tech and instant-news era, haven’t we moved on from having states like Iowa and New Hampshire determine in large part who represents the parties?

Call me nuts, but the idea what Iowans “expect face time” rubs me the wrong way.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/06/28/iowa.republicans/

As compelling a case as any. Agree?

Contemplating President Mitch Daniels
Russ Smith

The popular Indiana governor, with a zero charisma meter, might emerge as Barack Obama’s toughest opponent

Back in January I wrote an essay lamenting the lack of a credible Republican national leader, a man or woman who’d take the initiative to barnstorm across the country for GOP Congressional candidates, and not incidentally collect I.O.U’s for a 2012 challenge to President Obama. Newt Gingrich was brilliant in this capacity in 1994, and had his alternating bouts of bluster and timidity not done him in, it’s possible he could’ve displaced the tired Bob Dole in the ’96 election. Richard Nixon, ignoring his press obits, and public image as a political laughing-stock, virtually guaranteed his ’68 nomination by successfully traversing the country in ‘66, pressing flesh before audiences tiny and large, and emerged as the main beneficiary of the GOP’s comeback just two years after LBJ’s landslide.

Read the rest.

In July of 1979, President Jimmy Carter gave what was arguably the most important speech of his presidency, one in which he expressed the notion that the United States was facing a crisis in confidence and, though he never used the word itself, it became widely know as the “malaise” speech.

At first, the speech was hailed, and Carter received a bump in his approval ratings. However, the lack of effort in fixing what ailed the nation, perceived or real, saw public opinion sour further on the Carter administration. A little more than a year later, he was soundly beaten by Ronald Reagan.

The malaise speech hung around Carter’s neck like an anchor, and here’s where comparisons to Obama’s speech last night come to light.

Read more

The Indiana Governor, Mitch Daniels, has enjoyed some 2012 love here at PD. Could this position put him on thin ice in places like Iowa?

Pence rejects Daniels’ proposal for truce on social issues
Posted: June 13th, 2010 02:50 PM ET
From CNN Associate Producer Martina Stewart

(CNN) – A leading congressional conservative disagreed Sunday with a suggestion by his state’s governor that social issues be put on the back burner in order to allow policymakers to focus on turning the economy around and bringing the federal government’s finances into balance.

Speaking to The Weekly Standard, a conservative publication, Indiana’s Republican governor, Mitch Daniels, said the next president “would have to call a truce on the so-called social issues” so he or she could focus on the fiscal problems facing the country.

Read more

A Politico article is titled, “Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney win big in kingmaking states.” The article points out that Palin and Romney both endorsed Nikki Haley in South Carolina and former Governor Terry Branstad in Iowa, while Mike Huckabee endorsed other candidates.

“If Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney decide to run for president in 2012, they’ll have some powerful friends in the early states that are key to winning the GOP nomination.

“Mike Huckabee? Not so much.”
Read more

Newt’s flirting with 2012 is starting to move past the casual let’s-get-a-drink stage and to the more serious what-would-we-name-our-kids stage.

Gingrich drops presidential hints
Posted: May 27th, 2010 09:18 AM ET

From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

(CNN) – Swinging through Iowa Wednesday to promote his new book, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich suggested he and his wife may be spending a lot of time in the key campaign state next year.

Though declining to discuss the specifics of his political future, Gingrich said his wife – who attended college in Iowa – may be preparing to make an extended return to the Hawkeye State.

“She likes being in Iowa and its very possible she’ll be spending a lot of time in Iowa,” he joked with reporters in Des Moines, according to CNN affiliate KCCI.

Read the rest.

Just a funny bit that landed in my email today. Enjoy

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is sending up more signs that he could be running for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2012, and is also making dire predictions for Democrats and President Barack Obama:

Giving predictions for November’s midterms, Gingrich said House Republicans will pick up “somewhere between 40 and 65 or 70 seats” — enough to gain control of the House. “I believe John Boehner will be speaker in January,” he said.

Gingrich said he even sees a chance of Republican control of the Senate. “If they can beat Barbara Boxer [in California], I think that [Mitch] McConnell is going to be the Senate majority leader.”

Read more

Read more

I get hammered here at PD for being anti-Paul. At least that’s the perception. So knowing that, I’m going to introduce these fresh Rasmussen poll results without any commentary of my own and not risk having every word parsed to death in the comments.

Let the debate begin.

Pit maverick Republican Congressman Ron Paul against President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up, and the race is – virtually dead even.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of likely voters finds Obama with 42% support and Paul with 41% of the vote. Eleven percent (11%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Read the rest.

Several things jump out of this new poll, but most surprising is that Palin and Newt are only separated by a single point. Team Palin can’t possibly see that as a good sign.

The survey found that 24 percent of Republicans and Republican leaning Independents say they would most likely support Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and 2008 GOP presidential candidate, in the battle for the 2012 GOP nomination. And 20 percent said they would back former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who also ran for the White House in 2008. Palin, who was Sen. John McCain’s running mate in the last presidential election, came in third place with 15 percent, a point ahead of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

According to the poll, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, another 2008 Republican presidential hopeful, would be in fifth place, with eight percent. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour all register in the lower single digits in the hypothetical 2012 GOP presidential nomination matchup.

Here’s Fineman’s take on the SRLC. There is much to disagree with, but of interesting note are his thoughts on Palin and Barbour.

Six Lessons from the Southern Republican Leadership Conference

Just because you love Sarah Palin doesn’t mean you want her to run for president, and other observations.

By Howard Fineman | Newsweek Web Exclusive
Apr 12, 2010

I just spent three days in the closest thing there is to the central nervous system of the modern Republican Party. It’s not the GOP cloakroom of the U.S. Senate, not Sean Hannity’s morning staff meeting, it’s not Bill Kristol’s brain. It’s the quadrennial meeting of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, this time in New Orleans, the city where the gathering was first held decades ago.

Read the rest.

Gov. Bobby Jindal said this today: “I am not running for president of the United States … I’ve got the job I want.”

He doesn’t seem to be the kind of guy who would make such a firm statement and then flip-flip.

With the health care carnage now behind us and Obama and Congress finally moving on to other issues, what do your personal 2012 GOP rankings look like? Who are your top 5?

Some names to get you thinkin’: Barbour, Gingrich, Huckabee, Jindal, McCain (kidding), Romney, Palin, Paul, Pawlenty, Pence, Santorum.

Expect new official PD rankings soon, perhaps unveiled on F&F.

It’s been a hectic couple months for this editor. Besides being in busy season for work, I’m taking two classes (including accounting for the first time in my life), and trying to be a good husband for my wife, who is dealing with the serious health issues of her father. (Oh, and for the praying folk out there, please keep him in your thoughts today, he’s undergoing double bypass surgery)

I’ve also been completely unmotivated to write about this entire health care debacle. I’m so worn out of the news cycle this mess has made, it makes me not even want to watch any type of news program.

But as the potential end to a political battle that could define a presidency seems near, I felt it was time to weigh in.
Read more

The war between these two heats up.

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