Rasmussen: Perry 29%, Romney 18%, Bachmann 13%

So let’s shine up those crystal balls. First, what are your takeaways from Rasmussen. Second, how do you expect the numbers to look when more polls hit the streets and we begin to see more samples in the national averages? (RCP National Average as of today: Romney 20.2%, Perry 18.4%, Palin 10.0%, Bachmann 9.6%, Giuliani 9.3%, Paul 8.8%, Cain 5.0%, Gingrich 5.0%, Huntsman 2.2%, Santorum 1.8%.)

According to the new survey from Vanity Fair and CBS News’ 60 Minutes, only 1 in 4 of all adults thinks Palin is qualified to be commander-in-chief while 60 percent say she is not.

By a narrow 47-40 percent margin however, Republicans do feel Palin has the right stuff to be president. But self identified conservatives – constituting the segment of the GOP largely thought to most favor the former Alaska governor – are essentially split 41-40 percent on her abilities to govern the country.

Consider again that data: Conservatives, ie. those most likely to vote in a primary or caucus, are split 41-40 on her abilities to govern the country. Can anyone make an argument this isn’t a huge problem for Palin?

Other interesting findings:

Twenty-eight percent of voters do not believe Muslims should be eligible to sit on the U.S. Supreme Court. Nearly one third of the country thinks adherents of Islam should be barred from running for President — slightly higher than the 24% who mistakenly believe that the current occupant of the Oval Office is himself a Muslim. In all, just 47% of respondents believe Obama is a Christian; 24% declined to respond to the question or said they were unsure, and 5% believe he is neither Christian nor Muslim.

So how about you? Do you believe Barack Obama is a Muslim?

TRENDING: Poll: Only 4 in 10 say Obama deserves re-election
Posted: July 21st, 2010 01:47 PM ET

From CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

A new poll released Wednesday indicates that 48 percent of the public thinks Obama doesn’t deserve a second term in office.

Washington (CNN) – Nearly half of all Americans think President Barack Obama does not deserve re-election in 2012, according to a new national poll.

A Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday indicates that 48 percent of the public thinks Obama doesn’t deserve a second term in office, with four in ten saying he does deserve to be re-elected. By a 52 to 34 percent margin, Independent voters say the president doesn’t deserve re-election.

Read the rest.

In the comments, please list your top five presidents of all-time and where you’d place Obama, as of today.

Rasmussen Reports:

a telephone survey of Likely Voters in California shows Boxer with 42% support in a match-up with Campbell, a former congressman, who earns 41%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 12% remain undecided.

Let the debate begin.

Pit maverick Republican Congressman Ron Paul against President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up, and the race is – virtually dead even.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of likely voters finds Obama with 42% support and Paul with 41% of the vote. Eleven percent (11%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Read the rest.

The survey found that 24 percent of Republicans and Republican leaning Independents say they would most likely support Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and 2008 GOP presidential candidate, in the battle for the 2012 GOP nomination. And 20 percent said they would back former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who also ran for the White House in 2008. Palin, who was Sen. John McCain’s running mate in the last presidential election, came in third place with 15 percent, a point ahead of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

According to the poll, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, another 2008 Republican presidential hopeful, would be in fifth place, with eight percent. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana, and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour all register in the lower single digits in the hypothetical 2012 GOP presidential nomination matchup.

In my opinion Matt Drudge is the most important and influential single figure in American media. In terms of daily and ongoing influence he is more influential than The New York Times, the television networks, cable news or anyone else.

Read the rest.

Gallop: “President Barack Obama’s job approval rating has not fundamentally changed after passage of healthcare reform, but at 51% is slightly more positive than the ratings Obama had been getting for most of this month.”

For the sake of debate, where do you think Obama’s approval numbers will sit on July 1st during summer recess and on November 1st just before midterms?

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Republican voters nationwide say former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is their pick to represent the GOP in the 2012 Presidential campaign. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 24% prefer former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney while 18% would cast their vote for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Read the details at Rasmussen Reports.

Our beloved president is off to vacation in Martha’s Vineyard for 2 weeks – just in time for Hurricane Bill (not Clinton) to pay a visit. I find that just a tad bit ironic, don’t you?

Let’s hope it is an uneventful stay. The last thing we need is for something to happen to the president or his family while there. My reasons are twofold. First, I truly wish the man and his family health and safety. I want him living out his (only) term in office without injury or illness. The second reason is more selfish. I don’t want attention diverted from the real issues, nor everyone to turn sympathetic on him if a minor calamity should befall. Let’s hope the leeches and snakes around him [Axelrod and Emmanuel] won’t gin up a litte “Wag the Dog” scenario to do just that and boost his numbers again.

So it got me thinking. Speaking in purely hypotheticals, what possible scenarios could raise the almighty (with a little ‘a’) president’s poll numbers? I decided to make a list of possibilities.

A few of these are slightly realistic, while some of the scenarios have about the same likelihood that the US soccer team will win the World Cup next June, the KC Royals will play the Washington Senators in the World Series, and the Detroit Lions will win at least 6 games this year. So we’re dealing almost strictly in the hypothetical, OK?

So what will raise the fortunes of our illustrious leader?

1. Foreign attack on US soil - As long as he doesn’t apologize to the terrorists, the Oba-wan should get a spike, as people rally around the C-in-C during times of war and crisis.
Probability of Event: Low, but with increasing likelihood each year.

2. The H1N1 virus takes on ebola-like lethality and becomes a real epidemic, not some media-manufactured crisis story. It’s hard to tell whether this will multiply into a massive pandemic, or just roll around the world and continue to infect without causing catastrophic losses.
POE: Medium likelihood.

3. Mr. I’m-a-nut-job in Iran or his buddy Kim Mentally-Il decide to fire off a missile and actually hit something of value (like Japan, Korea, or Israel). I think the likelihood of a response corresponds to the country; Japan or Korea might warrant a response, but I think Israel’s alone on this one should it happen. It’s like betting against the house.
POE: The word ‘Odds’ typifies this category in so many ways.

4. We suffer through an extended heat wave: Algore imitates the second coming of goddess Gaia and pronounces his gloom and doom epiphanies, and the country wavers and buckles to his wishes to turn the country’s power supply off lest we feel his wrath.
POE: Nil for this summer, but can it go like this 3 years in a row?

5. The First Family gets another dog.
POE: Darn likely if BO (the dog, not the President) keeps pooping on the rug and eating the Rose Garden petals.

6. The economy recovers to a point of serious momentum: I look at Obama claiming the credit on this one akin to an old proverb I often use – “even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.”
POE: When was the last time it snowed in Hades? Wait till 2011, after the commercial real estate market collapse coupled with the first black shoots of inflation hit, before deciding.

7. If while vacationing on Martha’s Vineyard, the leader of the free world is struck with a new-found desire to be a centrist and conciliatory leader by moving legislation away from lunatic fringe kook category and closer to where the majority of Americans hold their value.
POE: Yeah, right. So a guy can dream, can’t he?

According to the poll, Obama would defeat the soon-to-be-ex-governor of Alaska 48% to 42%. In a match-up against 2008 GOP candidate Mitt Romney, it would appear things are a bit tighter. In fact, the race is a dead heat, with each man getting 45% of the vote.

One of the more telling statistics is how Palin and Romney fared among undecideds:

When Romney is the Republican nominee, he beats Obama among unaffiliated voters 48% to 41%. But when Palin is the GOP candidate, unaffiliated voters prefer Obama by a 47% to 41% margin.

But there is one stunner in the report – nearly a third of all Republicans think that Sarah Palin should run as an independent, if she were to fail to win the GOP nomination. And if she were to run as a third party, the results would be likely do more harm to the GOP candidate than to Obama.

Yes it’s just a poll. But it’s fun to see where things stand just three years out…

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 31% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-three percent (33%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -2. That matches the lowest level yet recorded.