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The final Michigan PD Composite Poll shows no conclusive leader as Romney is ahead by less that 1 point based on the effects on the Composite of polls released late yesterday. Whomever earns the votes of last-to-decide Michiganders seems likely to end up the victor.

Also, use this thread to predict the winners and percentages for both Michigan and Arizona. If anyone nails the top four and percentages to the nearest whole number for both states, Jason will send you a book from his personal stash. Tie breakers will be determined by tenths of percentages. Your entry comment must be time stamped by 5 pm EST.







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Mitt Romney has now led Michigan in four consecutive polls. However, Rick Santorum is within the margin of error in three of the four, leading to today’s Michigan Composite showing Romney with a slim 2.4 percent lead.

A win by Romney in Michigan combined with his expected blowout in Arizona would likely give him considerable momentum going into Super Tuesday, potentially securing the nomination. However, a Santorum win in Michigan combined with a Romney win in Arizona would likely drive this race to continue in its current state, perhaps all the way to the convention, without a clear leader.







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With sufficient data for building the Composite going back only to the first of February, we don’t have as significant of trends to follow for the Michigan Composite. However, there is clear movement over the past 10 days, with Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney moving in opposite directions.

In what is likely our first indication of voter sentiment since the last debate, Romney has retaken the lead at the time when it matters most, and appears to be surging. With leads of 3 points and 6 points in the Mitchell/Rosetta Stone and Rasmussen Reports polls conducted yesterday, Romney is likely to be victorious in what has become a must-win contest for his candidacy.