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The final Florida Composite Poll shows Mitt Romney’s lead continuing to grow, now up by nearly 12 points, while Newt Gingrich is sinking again. Coming out of Florida, Romney will again have significant momentum with likely wins ahead in Nevada and Maine.

At the same time, the Gingrich campaign will likely struggle to find the cash to compete, as it drained significant portions in Florida and will likely see further reductions in contributions correlating with his declining momentum. But he has vowed to continue on so we will likely not be spared from the brutal tactics from both his camp and the Romney camp for quite awhile.

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Over the past five days, Mitt Romney’s numbers have shown significant movement in Florida, certainly enough to consider it a solid trend. Romney has now led in the past nine consecutive polls. Barring unforeseen revelation, we are no longer wondering if Romney will take Florida, but by how much.

Newt Gingrich is still polling ahead of Romney nationally and leading the National PD Composite. The impact of a Romney victory on Gingrich’s national poll numbers will be the story by the end of the week, whether Gingrich’s popularity remains at its current levels or if momentum carries Romney back into the national lead.


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Edit: The Rasmussen Florida poll released this morning has very little impact on this data, as it confirms the most recent results.

The Florida Composite poll shows a dead heat between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. As the debates are clearly having a significant sway on the undecided voters, look for significant movement in polls released within two days of tonight’s contest.

Rick Santorum appears to be bottoming out. If he finished fourth to Ron Paul, there seems to be no reason why he should continue. Certainly, what little contribution money he has coming in will dry up faster than the pet rock went out of style.

Ron Paul chugs on. But it won’t do him much good in Florida, as it is a winner take all state, so he is focusing on the next caucus contests in Nevada and Maine where the delegates are awarded by proportion of the vote.

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The initial Florida Political Derby Composite release mirrors the volatility of the Republican race. It is exaggerated by very few polls haven been taken in Florida prior to early January.

Rick Santorum’s jump in popularity from his Iowa performance is clear. Prior to Iowa, he polled consistently around 1% in the Sunshine state. Mitt Romney’s popularity grew consistently from the beginning of December, until the South Carolina blowout brought Newt Gingrich back from the dead.

Gingrich is beating Romney in the last three polls taken by an average of 7 points, a dramatic shift after falling behind Romney by an average of 19 points in every prior January poll.