Monday open thread

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Open Thread on Feb 20 

Santorum’s surge continues. Bob Schieffer can’t understand how someone who simply would not consent to having an abortion wouldn’t want prenatal testing. If you are certain you are going to have the baby regardless of the test results, why have a test that causes undue stress? Some of these are only moderately accurate. My wife and I have had to argue with the doctors with each of our four children to get them to NOT perform prenatal testing because we would never consent to an abortion.

Meanwhile, I have a baby in the hospital and in-laws in my house. You come to your own conclusions.

Thursday open thread

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Open Thread on Feb 16 

As comes with his status as lead horse and leader of the PD Composite, it’s all Rick Santorum, all the time.

Dave Mustaine, lead singer of Megadeth supports Santorum. Jennifer Rubin discusses Santorum’s electability. Byron York reviews why Santorum lost his last election by 18 points and why Mitt Romney isn’t able to use it against him. Meanwhile, ‘durable manufacturing leads the US economy’ without the subsidies proposed by Santorum and President Obama.

Rick Santorum takes lead in latest PD Composite

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under PD Composite Poll on Feb 14 







Note: Click graphic to enlarge.

For the first time in its history, Rick Santorum leads the Political Derby Composite Poll.

Santorum has differentiated himself through his social conservative views in a race where most analysts thought the economy was the only issue.

Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich has been left for dead, as his complete lack of campaign structure beyond Florida has been exposed. Santorum is taking voters from the former Speaker.

Mitt Romney has also lost points to Santorum in recent polls. Now, the race most thought only a few weeks ago to be a knock-down drag-out fight between Gingrich and Romney is Santorum and Romney, at least until Super Tuesday sorts things out.

February 13, 2012 PD Composite

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under PD Composite Poll on Feb 13 


Note: Click graphic to enlarge.

Much has changed since our last PD Composite post on Friday. As suggested then, we had not seen the full impact of Rick Santorum’s sweep of non-binding Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota. In the three polls released since the last PD Composite, Santorum is surging, putting him in a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. At the same time, Newt Gingrich’s time is likely up.

However, in this race of extreme volatility, it may be Romney who snatches back a certain amount of momentum in the coming polls due to his win in Maine and symbolic victory at the CPAC straw poll. Meanwhile, Ron Paul needed a win in Maine more than any of the other candidates, if only for survival at this point in the race. But, in reality, Dr. Paul has never broken 17 percent in the PD Composite, has no momentum, is now trending downward in most polls, and is unlikely to be competitive again.

Romney win CPAC staw poll

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Race for White House 2012 on Feb 11 

Per the Washington Times:

Mitt Romney won The Washington Times/CPAC Presidential Straw Poll on Saturday, and also nipped Rick Santorum as the top choice of conservatives nationwide, according to a new version of the poll conducted for the first time this year that suggests Mr. Romney retains strong support among self-identified conservatives.

Romney: 38%, Santorum 31%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 12%

February 10, 2012 PD Composite

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under PD Composite Poll on Feb 10 







Note: Click graphic to enlarge.

Mitt Romney’s polling has remained relatively steady since his decisive Florida victory. However, we may not have yet seen the full impact in the polls of Rick Santorum’s sweep of the non-binding primaries. His performance has been inching upward, but Santorum has not experienced the shock of sudden popularity that the other anyone but Romney (ABR) candidates have. Looking at the trend chart to the left, you can see back to the first of September when Rick Perry was at his peak of national popularity. Then there was the momentary rise of Herman Cain, followed by the first, and more significant, Newt Gingrich surge. Rick Santorum’s initial national rise came out of his win in Iowa, though he never reached the levels of popularity gained by his three predecessors.

Corresponding with Santorum’s slow rise is Gingrich’s second demise. Once again, there may be a split in voters between the former two candidates that continues to favor Romney, especially if Santorum does not experience the sharp rise in popularity the other ABR candidates have. Assuming either Gingrich or Santorum were to drop out today, their combined PD Composite score is only 3.6 percent ahead of Romney. Therefore, to overtake Romney, the remaining candidate would have to garner nearly all of the the other candidate’s support, hoping none moves to Romney.

Friday open thread

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Open Thread on Feb 10 

CPAC continues today with speeches from Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich. Santorum will be working to establishing his on-going legitimacy as the “conservative” candidate. Romney’s plan is to fined acceptance as conservative enough. Interestingly, if you recall, four years ago he was considered the conservative alternative to John McCain before dropping out at this same CPAC conference. Gingrich will likely use his now-typical populist rhetoric in an attempt to remain relevant.

We also expect updates throughout the day from Editor Jason Wright and super-commenter Alaina Segovia, who are in attendance.

Finally, look for the newest PD Composite post. Despite Santorm’s recent wins in the non-binding primaries, his improvement in the national polls has been small, his best individual poll still at only 20 percent.

Thursday open thread

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Open Thread on Feb 9 

Politico details President Barack Obama’s recent ‘political transformation’, saying: “So much for the high road: Victory is more important than purity.”

In what could be a pivotal speech to his campaign, Mitt Romney speaks at CPAC on Friday. Meanwhile, Rick Santorum’s campaign continues to gain momentum and it seems as if Newt Gingrich has already been forgotten.

These pictures are of a sniper nest at the Super Bowl. Would that make you feel more or less at ease?

Sunday open thread

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Open Thread on Feb 5 

Edit: The complete results are finally in. Romney: 50%, Gingrich 21%, Paul 19%, Santorum 10%.

Mitt Romney won the Nevada Caucus by a landslide, 25 percent ahead of Newt Gingrich at the current count. However, Nevada’s most populous county, Clark, which includes Las Vegas, still has only 50 percent of precincts reporting, leaving the state at only 70 percent in.

Today, NPR is trying to figure out who Romney is and the New York Times reviews ‘Gingrich’s deep ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’.

Finally, we understand there is some type of American Football game being played today. You can use this open thread to make your predictions.

Saturday and Nevada Caucus open thread

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Open Thread on Feb 4 

Nevadans will go to caucus today. Expect a big win by Mitt Romney and perhaps a second place finish by Ron Paul. Newt Gingrich has virtually no infrastructure in the state, only recently opening a campaign office and Rick Santorum seems to be caught in limbo.  As far as data is concerned, there have been only two polls taken over the past two months (which is why we could not create a Nevada PD Composite), including one released yesterday by Public Policy Polling that has Romney at 50%, Gingrich at 25%, Paul at 15%, and Santorum at 8%.

The CBS affiliate in Las Vegas ran a story on artist John McNaughton’s 2010 painting seen to the left, “The Forgotten Man“, which is now making the rounds nationally, including this video with over 3 million videos created by Seth Adam Smith. What do you think of symbolism in his work?
 

Thursday open thread

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Open Thread on Feb 2 

Right or wrong, Mitt Romney keeps feeding the left sound-bites. Newt Gingrich lost in Florida, so he is going to challenge the delegate distribution rules. Indiana is now a right to work state and evidence shows that this will create a better environment for job creation. Data from the CBO shows that federal government employees are overpaid compared to similar workers in the private sector. Finally, President Obama’s monthly approval rating is the highest it has been since June of last year.

February 1, 2012 PD Composite: National Race

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under PD Composite Poll on Feb 1 







Note: Click graphic to enlarge

Since Newt Gingrich’s most recent peak in national popularity, driven by his big South Carolina win, he has been on a slow decline in the polls. At the same time, Mitt Romney has seen a slow increase in this numbers, giving him the benefit of momentum. Expect Romney to receive a significant bump in his national poll numbers after his decisive victory in Florida. What isn’t known is if the expected increase for Romney will come only from Gingrich supporters or also from Rick Santorum’s followers. However, it is rather unlikely many, if any, Ron Paul supporters will defect to another candidate unless Paul drops out entirely due to their utmost loyalty to the good doctor.

At some point the donors who are funding the under performing campaigns, especially that of Santorum, will determine there is no ROI, that they are throwing their money away. Since Santorum does not seem inclined to leave the race anytime soon, it appears that eventually having no budget will force him out. The same will may well apply to Gingrich, despite his insistence of going all the way to the convention, though it will be a longer horizon for his money to dry up.

Florida primary open thread

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Open Thread on Jan 31 

Florida primary voting is already over in the peninsula. The panhandle will be done at 8:00 pm EST. Initial exit polls look strong for Mitt Romney. What do we take from this primary vote and where do the campaigns go from here?

Florida primary predictions contest

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Contests, Predictions on Jan 31 

We have a good idea who will win in Florida, but by how much will Mitt Romney win? Or will you predict an upset? Newt Gingrich seems destined for second, but third place is a toss up. Not finishing last is probably more important to Rick Santorum’s campaign that lacks any solid base, as opposed to Ron Paul.

As for the contest, predict the order of finish, including percentage of the vote for the four main candidates. If anyone gets all four percentages rounded to the nearest whole number right, Jason will send you a book from his stash. If two people pick all the same percentages, the person whose comment time stamp is earlier will have the valid entry. Now begin channeling your inner Nostradamus.

January 31, 2012 Final PD Composite: Florida

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under PD Composite Poll: Florida on Jan 31 







Note: Click graphic to enlarge.

The final Florida Composite Poll shows Mitt Romney’s lead continuing to grow, now up by nearly 12 points, while Newt Gingrich is sinking again. Coming out of Florida, Romney will again have significant momentum with likely wins ahead in Nevada and Maine.

At the same time, the Gingrich campaign will likely struggle to find the cash to compete, as it drained significant portions in Florida and will likely see further reductions in contributions correlating with his declining momentum. But he has vowed to continue on so we will likely not be spared from the brutal tactics from both his camp and the Romney camp for quite awhile.

The most electable candidates

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Race for White House 2012 on Jan 30 


The concept of “electability” is often a consideration used by voters to evaluate candidates. Fortunately, since December 1, the number of polls taken comparing each candidate head-to-head with President Obama have been increasing significantly. We have used these polls to create the graphic to the left, which compares the four remaining Republican candidates plus/minus differential in polls directly versus the President. On this graph, if a candidate is at 0, it is a tie between him and Obama. If the candidate is above 0, they are beating Obama, likewise, if below zero, they are losing to Obama.
Read more

January 29, 2012 PD Composite: Florida

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under PD Composite Poll: Florida on Jan 29 







Note: Click graphic to enlarge.
Over the past five days, Mitt Romney’s numbers have shown significant movement in Florida, certainly enough to consider it a solid trend. Romney has now led in the past nine consecutive polls. Barring unforeseen revelation, we are no longer wondering if Romney will take Florida, but by how much.

Newt Gingrich is still polling ahead of Romney nationally and leading the National PD Composite. The impact of a Romney victory on Gingrich’s national poll numbers will be the story by the end of the week, whether Gingrich’s popularity remains at its current levels or if momentum carries Romney back into the national lead.

Saturday open thread

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Open Thread on Jan 28 

Sarah Palin vehemently defends Newt Gingrich against the recent attacks levied against him. This has lead Politico to call her ‘Newt Gingrich’s secret weapon‘, as she has surfaced to defend him again, just as she did right before the South Carolina primary when Palin said she would vote for Gingrich if she could.

Despite Rick Santorum and President Barack Obama’s claims that manufacturing needs help and their promotion of plans to subsidize it, the sector’s profits are the highest they have been in US history and 26% above pre-recession levels!

Finally, Politico reports that the left is attacking Republicans, including President Obama in his first campaign ad, for having “secret” money backing them. Yet the Democrats are doing the exact same thing.

Friday open thread

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Open Thread on Jan 27 

Who won the debate last night? CNN says Mitt Romney gained the most and Rick Santorum had his “strongest performance so far”. Politico is currently leading with “Newt’s no-show debate“. FOX calls it Romney’s “best debate performance“. Meanwhile, as Jason mentioned on FOX this morning, Ron Paul was marginalized once again (we will have the clip cut and posted later today).

Will this scenario mirror South Carolina, leading to a big Romney win or will Florida provide a different result?

Other topics, as always, are open for discussion in the open thread.

Debate open thread

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under Open Thread on Jan 26 

The final debate before Florida voters make their choices is tonight on CNN. It is also streaming at their website.

Newt Gingrich’s two debate wins prior to South Carolina solidified his later victory at the polls. Mitt Romney’s strong performance in the crowd-free debate earlier this week has given him a boost in the polls taken since. With this recent evidence of the debates having so much sway with voters their importance has increased significantly. The candidates are clearly aware of this, so watch for sparks to fly early and often.