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A series of blowouts in the Elite Eight has left us with a fantastic Final Four (bracket here).
Bob McDonnell (1), who could be expected to deliver Virginia for Mitt Romney faces off against former candidate and pastor Mike Huckabee (3). The other contest pits popular conservative Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan (1) against relative national new-comer Marco Rubio, who would be anticipated to drive the Florida and Latino votes. These candidates leave open the debate as to who the people want versus who the ever methodical Mitt Romney will select.
Voting is now open after the jump. As usual, you may vote once per day and polls will close at 11:59 pm EST on Tuesday, May 29.
We are down to the final eight, which creates an interesting discussion topic. Who of the remaining candidates could you absolutely not see Mitt Romney selecting? Are all of them viable and/or realistic? If you were Mitt Romney, who of the remain eight would you pick? As a reminder, polls are open until May 15 at 11:59 pm EST. You can vote once per day. Begin casting your votes after the jump. Read more
My daughter is in standardized testing today, which has an ironic name here in South Carolina, the acronym “PASS”. Unfortunately, this is quite fitting for the quality of schools and their goals in this state, as well as across most of the nation. “We need you to PASS, then we meet our minimum federal numbers.” Or as a college basketball coach that I used to work with liked to proudly proclaim: “Cs get degrees!” If your only goal is a minimum goal, how far will you really get?
If you’re looking for coverage on President Obama and gay marriage, go to Jason’s piece. I’ll also have something up later today. The semifinals of VP Madness are now live!
In other news, Politico says: “A Ron Paul revolution is brewing” and Dick Morris is projecting a Romney Landslide victory.
Sunday’s elections across Europe have signaled a new direction as France elected Socialist François Hollande and the Greek Neo-Nazi party has won seats in its parliament. In his campaign, Hollande ran on reducing the retirement age from 62 to 60 and taxing incomes over €1M ($1.3M USD) at 75%. This has led to many wealthy French exploring a move to the United Kingdom.
What effects on the local and world economies and politics do you expect from these outcomes? What are your thoughts on competition between governments? Harvard economist Greg Mankiw recently wrote about in the New York Times.
Finally, don’t forget to vote today for the Vice President!
Newt “I’m staying in until the convention” Gingrich finally put his campaign out of its misery, prompting NPR to ask: “What to say about Newt Gingrich that Newt Gingrich hasn’t already said about Newt Gingrich?” On President Obama’s new slogan “Forward”, Mitt Romney suggests, “Forward, what, over the cliff?” Gateway Pundit points out that Ann Romney wears a $990 shirt and the media freaks out but Michelle Obama wears $2700 sweater, and the media praises her for fashion sense and style. Additionally, Politico says: “Obama takes Romney to school.”
Finally, don’t forget to vote today in Veep Madness. Vote here.
2012 Veep Madness – Round 2
By Scott A. Robinson, EditorFiled Under Race for White House 2012 on May 2
Five upsets headlined Round 1. What do you expect in Round 2 voting? Can the lowest remaining seed, 6-Rand Paul, pull off the stunner and defeat 2-Marco Rubio? Will 3-Chris Christie crush 2-Nikki Haley after admitting he would entertain the thought be being Mitt Romney’s running mate? Are we headed for an all boring semi-final match up of 1-Tim Pawlenty versus 3-Mike Huckabee? Your voting will decide. The polls are now open after the jump. As before, you can vote once every 24 hours. Voting will close on May 8 at 11:59 pm EST.
Read more
Today’s open thread is a complete open topic bonanza. What do you want to see the editors write or comment about? What is missing from PD? Feel free to discuss anything else.
There are less than 18 hours to go in the voting. Help Mitt Romney choose a VP. Vote wisely after the jump. Read more
Economic growth is down again in the US, only 33% of Americans view the federal government favorably, and 20% of Americans self-identify as liberal. Are these facts related?
Meanwhile, the Secret Service “incident” in Colombia appears to not be an isolated event as Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano had previously stated. Investigations now find related pursuits within the Secret Service (giving its name an entirely new meaning) going back to early in the Clinton administration (maybe he wasn’t so bad, by comparison).
John Stossel pointed out in a Wall Street Journal article the TSA’s higher cost and significantly lower performance rate when compared to the private screeners at San Francisco International Airport. TSA Administrator John Pistole responded in the WSJ with a “revised” version of the study Stossel had cited, which led to Stossel firing back, pointing to further issues with the “study” used by the TSA.
Finally, don’t forget to help Mitt Romney select a running mate by voting in the Vice Presidential Championship today.
While Mitt Romney has redirected his time to more fundraising and choosing a running mate (don’t forget to help him by casting your vote today, no ID required), Rick Perry has endorsed Romney, no one has heard from Ron Paul (no word, hence no link), and “analysts” are reviewing what went wrong in the Newt Gingrich campaign. In an op-ed entitled ‘Was Newt Gingrich’s campaign the worst in history?‘ Joseph Curl of the Washington Times excoriates the former Speaker of the House. But was it the worst campaign ever? If not, whose were more poorly run?
Meanwhile, President Obama and Mitt Romney are neck and neck in the PD Composite. The two daily tracking polls, Rasmussen (Romney +5) and Gallup (Obama +6), are current conflicting and the most recent other poll has the two candidates tied. Finally, if you haven’t voted the the VEEPstakes today, don’t forget to support your candidates.
2012 PD Veep Madness
By Scott A. Robinson, EditorFiled Under Race for White House 2012, VP Tournament on Apr 24
Today we launch the 2012 PoliticalDerby.com Vice Presidential Candidate Championship. Voting for each round will take place over a one week period. You will be able to vote once per day. This 32 candidate single elimination tournament features four regions: Governor, Former Candidate, Senator, and Game Changer. The candidates were selected and seeded through an exhaustive and arduous process by the tournament committee made up of the PoliticalDerby.com Editors. Now, if you’re ready to start your office pool, you can download the entire bracket here
Feel free to discuss any of the match-ups, candidates left out, seedings you disagree with, or general complains about the committee in the comments. Voting is now open below the jump and will remain open until May 1 at 11:59 pm EST. Read more
As speculation of who Mitt Romney will select as his running mate is rampant, Romney has fueled the fire by campaigning with Marco Rubio this week. Rubio is also scheduled to give a major speech on foreign policy today, leading to more talk about him in tryout mode for the VP spot. Meanwhile, there are five primaries today with over 220 delegates at stake. Despite his campaign being over for weeks, Newt Gingrich has been trying to save face by working Delaware hard. Politico calls it Gingrich “hoping to become the Christine O’Donnell of the 2012 race.”
On the policy front, Social Security will run out of funding by 2033, three years earlier than previous projections and the Social Security disability fund will run out by 2016 as the recipients of this program have doubled over the past 10 years.. However, this is not due to the 2% tax holiday from the Obama administration, as funds are being transferred from the general fund to make up for the deficit. Rather, it is due to fewer people working and higher benefits paid out as more people have joined the Social Security roles, likely due to the state of the economy.
The theme of today’s open thread is “jobs, jobs, jobs!”
Let’s review the Obama administration’s promise from the early days of his presidency what would happen to unemployment if we passed the “stimulus” bill compared with actual unemployment.
As you can see, for the entire period of Barack Obama’s presidency, unemployment has exceeded the supposed worst case scenario, or what would happen if government did nothing. Now we are creating a organic problem as one in two new college graduates are either unemployed or underemployed.
How would you solve today’s unemployment and underemployment situation not seen in this country since the late 1970s?
Apparently Nicolas Sarkozy is considered “conservative” and disgruntled with him, France appears poised to elect a Socialist. Newt Gingrich, who everyone knows cannot win the Republican nomination, is still campaigning and likely spending over $38,000 (that’s the 2008 number) per day of tax payer money for a secret service detail that he requested. Apparently some parents prefer to transfer their parenting responsibility (e.g. “No, you can’t play on my phone.” and “No, I won’t give you the iTunes store password.”) to Apple, as they are suing because iPhone/iPad games are “addictive” and can cost money. Regarding Barack Obama’s frequent golf play, Mitt Romney tells the President “suck it up” and stop playing so much when the economy is hurting. Finally, as required by law, the House Committee on Financial Services has published the Dodd-Frank Burden Tracker and found that: “TOTAL BURDEN HOURS FOR 185 RULES: 19,443,045 initially and then 24,035,801 hours annually. 5,320 pages of regulation.”
Introducing the Obama v. Romney Composite Poll
By Scott A. Robinson, EditorFiled Under PD Composite Poll on Apr 18
Note: Click graphic to enlarge.
As we have now entered a two-horse race, the 2012 Republican Primary PD Composite has been retired. However, this means it is time to release the initial Obama v. Romney Composite Poll. The Composite will continue to be updated daily at the link on the page banner. We will also include posts that coincide with issues which cause significant shifts in the data.
With the exception of a couple of short blips, Barack Obama has led the PD Composite since the beginning of 2012 until April 12, two days after Rick Santorum announced he was suspending his campaign. Presumably, Republican voters who preferred a candidate other than Mitt Romney fell into the undecided or selected President Obama when polled prior to Santorum’s announcement. However, as this polling bias has been essentially eliminated, combined with what is likely new momentum as the presumptive nominee, Romney leads in six of the most recent ten polls, tying the President in a seventh.
Much will change over the next six months, as ridiculous arguments on who let a dog ride on a car, who ate dog meat, who likes women the most, and serious arguments on actual policy and vision for our country will shape the minds and hearts of voters. During these expected tumultuous days and weeks, the Obama v. Romney Composite Poll will show you what Americans are thinking.
Final Republican Primary PD Composite
By Scott A. Robinson, EditorFiled Under PD Composite Poll on Apr 12
Note: As Rick Santorum has dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney is the presumptive nominee. As such, this is the final update to the Republican Primary nationwide PD Composite. The Obama v. Romney Composite will now take its place on the page banner.
You can view all previous Republican Primary national and closely contested state PD Composites by following this link.
Note: Click graphic to enlarge.
The Political Derby Composite is a tool that takes the most recent major polls and weighs their results based on poll age, momentum from poll to poll, sample type, and margin of error each day using a proprietary formula. Unlike other poll compilations, this is not a simple average. Rather, it is a data-driven tool that measures voter sentiment on a daily basis. The polls that make up the PD Composite are well-known reputable national polls who sample “likely primary voters” and “registered voters”, as opposed to only “adults, including, but not limited to: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Pew Research, and Rasmussen Reports. The Composite Poll is a significant factor in determining the Power Rankings.
The PD Composite is updated daily, or as new data becomes available. The PDC will also be featured in semi-regular posts that coincide with significant data shifts. If you would like to comment on the most recent version navigate over to the post page.
Source polls for the PD Composite: ABC News/Washington Post, Bloomberg, CBS News/NY Times, FOX News, McClatchy/Marist College, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Pew Research, Public Policy Polling, Quinnipiac University, Rasmussen Reports, USA Today/Gallup
Now that the Republican nominee is certain to be Mitt Romney, Barack Obama’s campaign and surrogates are taking him head on. Democratic strategist and DNC adviser Hilary Rosen went on CNN to say, “Guess what, his wife has actually never worked a day in her life”. Apparently raising five boys is a walk in the part.
Not to be outdone, later today, Joe Biden will deliver an unadulterated class warfare speech decrying the lack of “fairness” in the tax code, comparing the so-called “Buffet Rule” to his new invention, “The Romney Rule”, saying:
The Romney Rule says the very wealthy should keep the tax cuts and loopholes they have, and get an additional, new tax cut every year that is worth more than what the average middle class family makes in an entire year.
But Biden doesn’t mention that overall tax burden of millionaires on new income is far, far higher than the middle class. Biden also doesn’t happen to mention that the top 1% pay 38% of the federal income tax bill and the top 10% of earners pay 70% of the total income tax bill!
And Rick Santelli can’t take it anymore (video after the jump). . . . Read more
This is the Romney campaign response to yesterday’s subject for “Rate that ad“.
Today a rocket launched from Egypt hit Israel. Meanwhile the Muslim Brotherhood candidate for president of Egypt says implementing “Sharia [law] was and will always be my first and final project and objective”.
Domestically, a 78 year old white man in Toledo was beaten nearly to death because of his race. “God Bless the USA” is apparently now too offensive for children in American public schools. Finally, Mitt Romney is ahead of Rick Santorum in the most recent poll of Republican voters in Pennsylvania. Santorum does not seem to recognize he has no shot at winning this thing. Perhaps being humiliated in a second straight Pennsylvania election will bring him to his senses.