Round two was a tale of two match-ups – nail biters and blow outs. Each of the four brackets had one or the other. Two upsets also highlight what has been a mostly chalk tournament so far:

In the Governor bracket, one seed Bob McDonnell cruised past Indiana Governor 70 to 30. Chris Christie scored a bombastic upset of two seed Nikki Haley, beating the southern governor 53 to 47.

In the Senator bracket, top seed Rob Portman struggled mightily against conservative Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, but managed to hold on to a closer than expected 53-47 match. Florida’s Marco Rubio faced a dangerous internet juggernaut in Rand Paul, but his mystical web powers are apparently not as strong as his fathers, as Rubio steamrolled Paul by a 60 to 40 margin.

In the Former Candidate bracket, the closest match of the second round saw Tim Pawlenty barely escaping a late charge by his fellow Minnesotan Michele Bachmann. In the tightest score of the entire tourny, T-Paw gets by with a 51-49 win. The polar opposite was seen in the bracket’s other match, as three seed Mike Huckabee obliterated Rick Santorum in a 78-22 pounding. That’s going to leave a mark.

And finally in the Game Changer bracket, Paul Ryan exploded to an early lead and never looked back, sending former Secretary of State Condi Rice packing by a 73-27 margin. And then General David Petraeus survived a late match charge from Mike Pence led by Pence-a-holic Alania, to squeak by with a 52-48.

This sets the PD Veep Madness Elite Eight matches, with all four one seeds facing two number two seeds and two number three seeds. No Cinderella (or Sarah Palin?) in this tournament!

Senator Richard Lugar was soundly defeated by Tea Party-back rival Richard Mourdock in the Indiana Republican primary yesterday, ending Lugar’s 36 year career in Washington.

The cunning creativity of the Obama fundraising machine is on full display with the “Mothers Day Shout Out” program:

Whether or not your mom’s on Twitter, here’s something guaranteed to make her smile on Sunday: getting a personal shout-out from President Obama.

From now until Thursday at midnight, you have a chance to win that for your mom or a special mother in your life — just get five or more donations to your grassroots fundraising page to automatically put yourself in the running.

That’s right: If your name is drawn, the President will send your mom a special Mother’s Day tweet from @BarackObama. With more than 15 million people following him on Twitter, she’ll be honored in front of a pretty wide audience.

Soon there will be donation contests for Fathers Day, where you and dad can hit the golf links with the President, and Fourth of July, where you help Obama pick what fireworks get shot off over the Potomac.

The best is saved for Arbor Day, where if you win, you get to plant a tree in the President’s honor in the Rose Garden.

Team Romney laid out what they see as their candidate’s five paths to the Oval Office, and none of them look particularly easy.

With Gingrich out this week, Ron Paul remains the only candidate actively campaigning (sort of) against Mitt Romney. Here’s a piece I thought was interesting on why Ron Paul continues his run and what some of the lasting effects of his movement may be.

And don’t forget to vote for your candidates in round two of Veep Madness.

The polls are closed, the contests decided and with over 1500 votes cast, round one of the 2012 PD Veep Madness is in the books!

In general, things went as expected in the first round, as all of the one and two seeds advanced with relative ease. There were five first round “upsets,” but four of them happened the be in the match up between the four and five seeds, which makes me wonder if the selection committee had a selective case of dyslexia.

Here is a bracket-by-bracket recap of the first round:
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President Obama was in Afghanistan yesterday and announced a plan to drawn down the U.S. armed forces over the next couple of years.

There is also a lot of chatter that the trip, which coincided with the one year anniversary of the death of Osama Bin Laden, was a chance for the Obama White House to “spike the ball.”

It very well may have, but honestly, we should be used to politicians doing this sort of thing. But politicians should beware of how “spiking the ball” can blow up in your face. Just ask George W. Bush about the infamous “Mission Accomplished” incident.

Is it unsavory for politicians to do this, or is this just part of the game?

The 2012 election rides on basically the same group of states that have helped to decided the last several presidential elections. These battle-ground states are where you will see the candidates spend the majority of their time and money this fall, and fall into four categories.

The “rust-belt” states are a group of aging giants, who has felt the effects of the economic troubles worse than most, mainly due to the fact they weren’t doing so hot before the epic meltdown of 2007. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa are five that will play a major role in deciding who resides at 1600 Pennsylvania next year. Barack Obama won all of these states, peeling Iowa and Ohio away from the Republicans.
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For the first time since he’s become the presumptive nominee, Mitt Romney has topped President Obama in a general election poll.

The Fox News poll only has Romney edging Obama by two points, so it is within the margin, but the poll comes on the heels of a tough week for the White House, as the Romney campaign is burying them on the comment made by DNC adviser Hilary Rosen. Obama quickly distanced himself from the comment, but the statement creates an opening for Romney in one of his weakest areas – female voters.

The Romney campaign pounced on the issue immediately, with Ann Romney unleashing her first tweet of the election: “I made a choice to stay home and raise five boys. Believe me, it was hard work.”

Boom.

As Wednesday dawns, the Republican primary race has been put to bed, with the suspension of Rick Santorum’s campaign yesterday.

While regular PD readers will know that I was never a fan of the former senator of my home state, I will begrudgingly give credit to Santorum for the hard work he put in leading up to the Iowa caucuses, which set the table for his run as the candidate who came the closest to toppling the money-fueled Mitt Romney machine. I firmly do not believe Santorum would make a strong VP candidate, but it certainly would behoove Romney to be magnanimous to Rick, if only as an attempt to sure up his standing with social conservatives.

Equally so, Santorum should work long and hard to support a Mitt Romney general election campaign, as a way to keep his name in the news and to set the groundwork for a possible 2016 run.

Finally, checking in with our old amigo, New Gingrich, it seems that his money and organizational woes still plague what’s degenerated into a three ring circus of a campaign. His $500 check to cover the fee for his inclusion on the ballot in the Utah primary bounced higher than a super ball on the moon.

I, for one, hope Newt stays in the race until the convention as he promises, so that I have something funny to blog about.

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama spent yesterday jabbing back and forth at each other, with Romney on the stump in Pennsylvania and Obama calling for Romney to release more of his tax returns. Gee, I wonder where he got that idea from?

Reports have South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley on Romney’s short list as VP, which is somewhat counter to conventional wisdom that Romney would go with a “safe” pick.

Rick Santorum met with a group of conservative leaders in Virginia in what was described as “a late attempt to rally the right and block Mitt Romney’s nomination from becoming inevitable.”

With a clean sweep of yesterday’s primaries, Mitt Romney continues to tighten his grip on the Republican nomination. The pressure is beginning to mount for Rick Santorum to “make a graceful exit,” as John McCain stated, so that Romney can begin to concentrate on the general election. That general election campaign has begun as far as President Obama is concerned, as he’s begun to target Mitt Romney by name.

There is also no shortage of opinions as to who should be Romney’s running mate. McCain thinks it should be Sarah Palin. Palin thinks it should be Allen West. Intrade has Marco Rubio slotted as VP. And of course Paul Ryan has looked very chummy with Mittens since Ryan’s endorsement of Romney.

Look for all of these names in our upcoming Vice Presidential Power Rankings.

Well, maybe not Allen West.

Oh, and there’s really no shot it’s Sarah Palin.

Yah, OK, so, look for most of these names in our upcoming Vice Presidential Power Rankings!

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Filed Under Rate that Ad on Mar 31 

With Bush ’41 warbling Kenny Rogers as he endorsed Mitt Romney, the heavy hitters in the GOP are making it known that they feel the race is over.

In a week that saw Mitt pick up nods from Jeb Bush, his dad, and Marco Rubio, he will add Rep. Paul Ryan to the list today.

Like it or not kiddies, Williard Mitt Romney is all but officially the Republican nominee that will challenge President Barack Obama this fall.

There, I said it.

I didn’t say you had to like it, and based on the comments over the last six months or so, many of you don’t.

But since it is practically a moot point, let’s get along with some fun speculation – namely, who is Mitt going to pick as his running mate?

Is there trouble in paradise for Obamacare? The most contentious part of the health care plan, the individual mandate, was expected to be treated like a pinata by the conservative member of the Supreme Court, but even one of Barack Obama’s own nominees, Sonia Sotomayor has some questions about it’s justification:

Justice Sotomayor, an Obama appointee, appeared skeptical of solicitor general Verrilli’s claims that the individual mandate is not based upon the idea that the government can force people into commerce and that there is no limit on its power to do so. The justice and solicitor general were very much at odds on this point.

Is Obamacare on the ropes?

***Update – The L.A. Times is reporting that the Supreme Court may be poised to strike down the entire Health Care bill.

Mitt Romney won the Illinois primary by a double-digit margin, another up for him on the roller coaster ride that is his 2012 campaign for the Republican nomination. Romney thinks he is close, going after Barack Obama in his victory speech, and echoing that in an email to his supporters:

“Tonight’s win means we are that much closer to securing the nomination, uniting our party, and taking on President Obama,” the Republican front-runner wrote in a campaign email sent late Tuesday.

He urged the party to fall in line behind his bid, saying, “We are almost there.”

This was a no-doubt-about-it victory in a rust belt state, unlike the squeakers he won in Michigan and Ohio, and it will attract more of what drives the Romney machine – money.

As far as the other candidates go, Santorum will soldier on, and will probably win a few more races. Ron Paul did what Ron Paul does in states where he doesn’t have a high level of appeal, namely eight to twelve percent. Newt Gingrich bottomed out yesterday, finishing dead last on the heels of news his campaign has more debt than cash on hand and grumblings from peripheral staffers that bills aren’t getting paid.

No it is not over, but the fat lady is tuning up in the green room.

To say it was an interesting Tuesday is an understatement. Polling data was pointing to at least one Mitt Romney win in the twin southern Gulf races held in Mississippi and Alabama, but it instead gave Rick Santorum his turn with the football called momentum, with a sweep of the two critical races of the day.

Romney can’t be happy with his two third place finishes, even if he was topped by New Gingrich for second place in both states by paper thin margins. Romney did win Hawaii, but once again failed to land a knockout blow to Rick Santorum.

What is crystal clear now is that this is a two-man race between Romney and Santorum, and that Newt Gingrich will face an enormous amount of pressure to withdraw.

Ron Paul did not fair well in the south, and managed a distant third place finish in Hawaii over Gingrich, but the good doctor is unlikely to pull out of this race any time soon.

The next big one comes in Illinois, which should be an interesting place to test Santorum’s strength in Middle America.

Rick Santorum won Kansas this weekend, and Mitt Romney won a bunch of tropical islands.

This week’s contests have a southern flair, with Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday and Missouri on Saturday. Oh, don’t forget Hawaii and American Samoa, where Mitt will look to continue to dominate the tanned voter block.


Welcome to the latest edition of PoliticalDerby.com's 2012 Power Rankings, the original tracking service of the race for the White House. The rankings are updated as circumstances warrant and are compiled by our Editors using wire reports, polls, campaign staffer scuttlebutt and confidential tips. The rankings may not be reprinted or quoted in any form without attribution to PoliticalDerby.com.

The GOP Horses
Power Ranking The Horse Momentum The Tip Sheet
Romney

Mitt
Romney

Mitt’s campaign has had more rapid ups and downs than a Shake Weight commercial. He won the majority of the states and popular vote on Super Tuesday and he won the most competitive race in Ohio. His reward? A chorus of “He can’t win” from candidates who win less often.

Santorum Rick
Santorum

Rick has another chance to slow Romney’s inevitability argument in the next slate of races: Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi. He probably needs to win all three to make his case and the latest polling in Alabama shows a very tight, neck and neck (or v-neck and sweater vest) race.

Gingrich Newt
Gingrich

Newt won Georgia, as expected, but did poorly in Tennessee and Oklahoma. In related news, Gingrich recently fell asleep on camera at the AIPAC Conference. It’s only fair, he’s been putting viewers to sleep with his election night speeches for months.

Paul

Ron
Paul

Ron is leaking oil — badly. He’s trailing the delegate race, he has the least number of popular votes, and his campaign-affiliated Super PAC is looking to scale back funding. The good news is that he’s won the same number of states as Pawlenty, Huntsman, Cain, Perry and Bachmann — combined.

Mitt Romney won six of the ten races on Slightly-less-than-Super Tuesday, including the battleground of the day, Ohio. Of the four other contests, Rick Santorum won three and Newt Gingrich managed to hold serve in his home state of Georgia. Ron Paul once again came away empty-handed.

Despite winning the majority of the contests, including the big one in the Buckeye State, most outlets are reporting it as a mixed day for Romney, and at least one blogger is calling MSM out for it.

While delegate estimates are at best a shot in the dark, one stat that can be looked at accurately is the aggregate popular vote count to this point, and the numbers there are pretty strong for Romney.

Was Tuesday a knockout blow for Romney, or will the slog continue into the spring for the Republicans?

Mitt Romney managed two victories yesterday, including a slim one in Michigan, where a loss could have done considerable damage to his campaign.

Santorum is taking some heat for his robocalls to Democrats, and the backlash could lead to yet another Newt Gingrich comeback, who saw his number uptick in the Gallup Daily Tracking.

Gingrich is looking to use his home state of Georgia to launch into some Super Tuesday success next week.

Ron Paul is looking at Washington and Vermont as states giving him the best chance for wins. He’s even hitting Mitt Romney in his ads there.

Tonight we revisit the event that shaped the early contests in what is developing into a long term slog: a debate. Tonight’s debate could play a significant role in who will eventually become the GOP nominee for the 2012 election, as it is the last debate before Super Tuesday.

Questions abound!

Can Mitt Romney again assert himself as he did in the debates leading up to Florida?

With a strong performance, can Rick Santorum position himself as the man to beat?

Is the forgotten Newt Gingrich able to pull another Lazarus-like rise with one of his signature debate performances?

Will the networks once again make themselves look silly by unfairly giving Ron Paul an embarrassingly limited amount of time to speak?

Tune in tonight!