Jeb Bush has suspended his campaign tonight in South Carolina. How about Kasich and Carson? No such luck it would seem – especially if you’re Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz. It’s really a guessing game, but if those three had dropped out after New Hampshire, how would have tonight’s GOP primary looked like?

With almost 75% of the votes counted at this point, Rubio is ahead of Cruz by half a percentage point. For the next 10 minutes at least. Jeb and Kasich are neck in neck with 500 actual votes or 0.1% between them at just over or just under 8%. Give at least 12% of those 16% to Rubio and he’s tied or ahead of Trump. Give 4-5% of Carson’s nearly 7% vote to Ted Cruz and he’s close to 30%.

But Kasich has a plan – in places like Michigan and Ohio – so he’s not quitting yet. While Carson has been – in tactical terms if not in terms of substantive issues – an even greater outsider than Trump. In other words, who knows what he’ll do and when he’ll do it? It would seem likely Carson will go before Kasich does – the money and support network are less in risk of drying up completely for the governor. But when?

We now have almost 83% of the votes counted and – as is to be expected – the relative gaps between the GOP candidates seem to be hardening. Trump barely gets a double digit victory – which is certainly enough. And Rubio may just, just get second place over Cruz. But apparently no GOP candidate who has won both New Hampshire or South Carolina has ever failed to win the nomination.

How could that change in 2016? How could Trump’s train ever be derailed at this point? Kasich and Carson would have to drop out in the next few days. And money and votes would have to choose overwhelmingly between either Cruz or Rubio, as the man to beat Trump. Neither seem very likely just yet. And that’s the point: both of these necessary conditions will happen at some time in the future, but likely not nearly soon enough.

Three people will claim victory tonight: Trump the inevitable nominee; Rubio the comeback kid; and Cruz the conservative voter’s last, true chance at redemption. Or at least that will be their stories. So, imagine this scenario going forward:

Trump is still ahead and Rubio and Cruz are still neck in neck after Super Tuesday. Who then calls it quits? What would it take to make either Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio quit? And at what point in the race would the presence of two anti-Trump candidates be fatal to the not-the-Donald vote? South Carolina has brought a little clarity, but hardly a resolution yet. This race does seem to be Trump’s to lose, but this is not yet a certainty.

And finally, a fascinating take by Fivethirtyeight’s David Wasserman suggests that the delegate math is predicting a Trump v. Rubio face off with Cruz playing kingmaker in a contested convention! Bets anyone??