Nerdy Nate Silver got it right again: some sort of shock result that the polls had not been predicting was a near certainty according to an article he wrote at In other words, polls are not nearly as reliable with primaries as compared to elections. And in Iowa the real winner seems to be Marco Rubio who at this point is locked in a dog fight for second place with Trump.

The surge was real in other words, and the barnstorming, who-needs-a-ground-game Trumpathon has hit it’s first major stumble. And Ted Cruz gets what he needed, but might fear to gain as well. For the GOP nomination race has not been overly kind to the winners of the Iowa. Unlike the Democratic race.

Are large black helicopters filled with Wall Street funds diverting their flight paths from Hillary Clinton’s headquarters to drop at least a significant portion of their cash on the senator from Florida’s campaign instead? And will the endorsements come piling in now for Rubio; and will the laws of gravity once again take their rightful place in the Republican establishment universe?

Right now, it’s too close between the top three to say for sure. All three have a very real chance of winning the nomination at this point. And while Carson has earned the respect of many in Iowa – and that clearly showed – it’s a more a case of who can start siphoning off his supporters elsewhere in the primaries.

So. What will Trump do and say? Tonight, tomorrow in New Hampshire, and as the week rolls on towards the Granite State’s primary. Because while it is stating the obvious that GOP voters desperately want a winner, they also want a chief executive and commander-in-chief. And Trump will need to show some largesse.

Two senators – both relatively young and with some but not a ton of legislative experience – and a billionaire businessman. And in fourth place a retired surgeon. The Weekly Standard and others remain incredulous that the GOP nominee almost certainly will have no political executive experience, with Jeb and Christie way back at around 3% each or less. But the anti-establishment vote totals at least 60% if you add Cruz, Trump, and Carson. And Rubio is the one of the youngest establishment candidates in a while. And a fairly recent convert at that.

So who out of these three will GOP primary voters trust – within the next few months – to be their party’s nominee for the biggest CEO job in the world? Think about it: President Cruz, President Trump, or President Rubio. Perhaps by some miracle there will be another choice, but at this point the GOP race is between these three men.

As for the Democratic race in Iowa, it really is a dogfight. One that Sanders may just win by the time the votes are all tallied and double-checked. But the South and specifically South Carolina still await. It’s still Hillary’s race to lose, unless enough Democrat voters are anywhere near as angry as GOP voters.