So here we sit, the afternoon before polls open and the answer is still very much in question.

Both candidates are conducting last minute campaign blitzkriegs, seeking to sway the precious few Americans that are planning to vote, but that have not yet made up their mind.

There are grand predictions of landslides for both sides, which look silly. No, more than likely, this is election is going to be more like 2000 or 2004, rather than 2008.

The national polls remain virtually tied, but they realistically mean nothing, as Al Gore will tell you after winning the 2000 popular vote, but losing the White House to George W. Bush. The swing states are where this election will be decided. The RCP state polling aggregate lists 11 states as “toss up”, and President Obama has leads in nine of them. The Romney states are North Carolina and Florida, while Obama holds the lead by three points or more in Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Closer are Ohio, Nevada and New Hampshire. Even closer are Colorado and Virginia.

So let’s have some electoral college fun!

Assuming both candidates win the states they are favored to win, Obama/Biden leads Romney/Ryan in the electoral college, 201 to 191.

If the states fall as the current RCP averages indicate, Obama is reelected 303 to 235. A comfortable win, but not nearly as convincing as his 2008 thumping of John McCain.

Another scenario is to use the most recent set of Rasmussen polls for the toss up states. In that case, in addition to North Carolina and Florida, Romney wins Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia. The President wins Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Two key states are tied according to Rasmussen – Ohio and Wisconsin. In this scenario, Romney has 267 electoral votes and Obama 243, which means that the President would have to win both tied states, or Mitt Romney is elected.

So what is your scenario? Take a little trip over to one of my favorite sites to play around on during presidential elections, 270towin.com. You can click on the interactive map to create your own electoral college result. At the bottom of the map, just south of the Gulf states, you will see a “Share Map” button that will generate a URL of your election scenario. Copy that link and head to our contest here. The winner will receive “The JFW Christmas Collection”, a copy of all four of Jason’s Christmas titles.

Good luck to all and please make sure you vote tomorrow!

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