So here we sit, the afternoon before polls open and the answer is still very much in question.

Both candidates are conducting last minute campaign blitzkriegs, seeking to sway the precious few Americans that are planning to vote, but that have not yet made up their mind.

There are grand predictions of landslides for both sides, which look silly. No, more than likely, this is election is going to be more like 2000 or 2004, rather than 2008.

The national polls remain virtually tied, but they realistically mean nothing, as Al Gore will tell you after winning the 2000 popular vote, but losing the White House to George W. Bush. The swing states are where this election will be decided. The RCP state polling aggregate lists 11 states as “toss up”, and President Obama has leads in nine of them. The Romney states are North Carolina and Florida, while Obama holds the lead by three points or more in Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Closer are Ohio, Nevada and New Hampshire. Even closer are Colorado and Virginia.

So let’s have some electoral college fun!

Assuming both candidates win the states they are favored to win, Obama/Biden leads Romney/Ryan in the electoral college, 201 to 191.

If the states fall as the current RCP averages indicate, Obama is reelected 303 to 235. A comfortable win, but not nearly as convincing as his 2008 thumping of John McCain.

Another scenario is to use the most recent set of Rasmussen polls for the toss up states. In that case, in addition to North Carolina and Florida, Romney wins Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia. The President wins Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Two key states are tied according to Rasmussen – Ohio and Wisconsin. In this scenario, Romney has 267 electoral votes and Obama 243, which means that the President would have to win both tied states, or Mitt Romney is elected.

So what is your scenario? Take a little trip over to one of my favorite sites to play around on during presidential elections, You can click on the interactive map to create your own electoral college result. At the bottom of the map, just south of the Gulf states, you will see a “Share Map” button that will generate a URL of your election scenario. Copy that link and head to our contest here. The winner will receive “The JFW Christmas Collection”, a copy of all four of Jason’s Christmas titles.

Good luck to all and please make sure you vote tomorrow!


  • Rusty Shackleford

    Unfortunately, I’ve got it for President Obama 284-252 with Ohio being the death blow to Romney.

  • Anonymous

    Man, it’s gonna be fun to laugh at your predictions tonight. The meltdowns will be epic.

  • Jason Wright, Editor
  • German Observer

    I’m stunned about the plain optimism you guys display about a clear Romneyw-in with numbers beyond 300. If Romney wins, which is quite possible (wit or without voter surpression, voting-machine-manipulation etc.), he would win quite narrowly.

    Might well be, to repeat a picture I used in a discussion with Red State Eddie recently, that all you guys are eagerly waiting for christmas eve and what you’ll find under the christmas tree is … socks.

  • MWRi

    I think it will be closer than most Republicans seem to be predicting, Romney 288, Obama 250.

  • marshport

    I feel confident that Romney will win with over 300 electoral votes. I might even go out on a limb and say he could win before the polls close in the Pacific time zone.

  • Steve M.

    If Obama ends up winning the election like most pundits predict, I may win this contest just by virtue of being one of the few Democrats around this place

  • German Observer

    Happy election-day everone!

    My guess is 303 for Obama.

    But this is because I had to say something. So I haven’t make up my mind whether or not this guess includes the “flaws” of the US-voting-system. Given valid elections I would be truely convinced that Obama would land somewhre around 340 and beyond, but still you chose to have elections, that seem to be the blueprint for a banans-republic and not elections of one of the oldest democracies of the world.

    Stioll i’d liove to have an extra-contest wether or nit, we’ll know the name of the next president tonight or after some legal disputes in a couple of weeks. From me five bucks for the second alternative.

    • Dodgers

      The words of someone who doesn’t live in the US, isn’t a citizen and has no clue.

      • Steve M.

        Does any of that make GO wrong? Haven’t the last two elections that were in any way close ended in the courts?

        • Dodgers

          Sure, but that’s not all he said. “Given valid elections I would be truely convinced that Obama would land somewhre around 340 and beyond.”

          Valid elections?

          • German Observer

            Whats wrong with that notion? Or do you insist, that your elections truely and validly represent the attitudes of the electorate?

            If so, than you certainly have an explanation why so often it is the case, that your elections are in doubt, that there is disputes from both sides, that there is legal action frequently, in short: why is it, that everybody prays for a clear result just to avoid doubts about the validity. This does not happen in any other mature democracy of the world.

            The funny thing is: to have valid elections is no rocket science and no brain-surgery or anything else rather complicated. It is easy, very easy and just demands some common sense and accuracy. So if you don’t have that regarding your elections, you don’t WANT to have it.

            • Dodgers

              “that there is legal action frequently”

              What is the German definition of frequently? There are thousands of elections annually around the country and they rarely end up in court. Yes, 2000 ended up in court. It was historic. But the vast majority of elections are decided in the polling place and without controversy.

              • German Observer

                And that’s why this election was also an employment-program for lawyers, who have been hired by both parties in thousends and sent to the hottest contests to observe the process?

                Both parties did so because 2000 was just an unhappy exception?

  • Roberta H.

    Romney 307 Obama 231

  • Anonymous

    Romney in a landslide:

    Romney 315 – Obama 223

  • Whatever

    I think that Romney will get it 320 electoral votes.

  • Whodat

    I predict that Mr. Romney will snag over 300 electoral votes. Make that 317.

    I think the polls are too Demo-weighted and also that we Conservatives are super-charged. Those two points are big in my book.

    Let me apologize for all the negative things I said about Romney over the last two years. As with Reagan, I have come to know him and respect him and have been amazed at what he has done. Not since Reagan’s FIRST election in 1980, over Carter, have I been so proud to cast my vote for a fellow American. I have grown to really like Romney over the last few months. He is the right guy at this time. I voted within two hours of the polls opening for early voting. I was sober…

    I hope the Ron Paul faithful will join me in putting the past dreams aside and work together to defeat this nightmare that has so attacked America from withing these past 4 years.

    God Bless You, Mr. Romney! I join all those who look to you to restore our country.


    a/k/a Reese Turner

    County Commissioner – Elect (no Democrat opponent)

    Austin County, Texas

    • Anonymous

      Whodat, you old salty seadog! Long time no see! We’ve missed you ’round here in these parts! Good to hear from you.

    • Anonymous

      I will always vote for a “bad” Republican over the best Democrat. Yes, I did cast my vote for Romney a couple of weeks ago. Not much chance of Obama winning in this county anyway (Ron Paul carried it in the primary)

      Sir, you make me think of throwing my hat in the ring yet again. Good luck to you in the coming years.

    • German Observer

      Whodat, that is sooo funny and so predictable.

      I remember that during the pirimary-season this website was almost complete about Romney beeing a Flip-Floper, a guy without principles, a moderate, someone who would tell you anything to get elected. And you have been in the no. 1 spot, using the name Romneycare instead of his real name and telling us, that yopu would prefer a root-job at your teeth before over voting Romney.

      And then what happens? Romney wins the nomination utilizing his funds and by moving to the far right (which made him suspicious in your eyes). And in the general he moved to the center to become moderate Mitt again. He Flips and Flops, is the moderate you predicted him to be, stops beeing falkish, tells people what they want to hear just be get elected … your whole nightmare became true …

      And the whole PD-bunch remains silent and Whodat is happy to vote for Mr. Romneycare. This is great, great cinema! Wait for me fetching up some ├╝popcorn before you go on.