Happy Halloween!

I hope everyone in the Northeast U.S. had an uneventful visit from Hurricane Sandy. The Kaiser house lost power for a couple of days, but all is up and running now.

The campaign, after taking a brief pause for the storm, resumes in earnest today, less than a week before the nation goes to the polls. The polls continue to show a close race, with most giving Mitt Romney a slim lead nationally, but Barack Obama seemingly with an edge where it counts, the electoral college.

The focus continues to be on the battleground states, places like Pennsylvania and Iowa.

Do you see a path to the Oval Office for Romney, and if so, what swing states will he capture?

Comments

  • German Observer

    I’m not sure whether or not to search fro Romneys path to victory on a state-level is the appropriate approach at this point if the race.

    I’m well aware that states are different, demographics are different, unemployment numbers are different, arguments to that people in the different states respond are different etc. But all in all, there is those states which are in the range of 2-5%. And my guess is, that in the end it will depend on how the nationwide feeling is. I think its possible that if there is a broader wish for change that Romney would win 7 or 8 of the swing states, which makes for 340 electoral votes or so. Bit it is also possible that there is no mo and everything might stay like it was in 2008, certainly with the exception of Indiana and probably with the exception of North Carolina.

    Before the first debate, i saw a very clear victory for the president with small but consistent leads nationwide as well as in the crucial states. After the first debate the wind changed and the overall picture quite flipped to the opposite. After debates 2 to 4 the trend was stalled and I saw it as an exact tie. Now after the storm, a presidential President and a de facto endorsement of Christie I see that things are turning in the presidents favor. If the next employment-numbers are just okay I can’t see Romney winning and obama would get between 310 amd 340 electoral votes.

    • Rusty Shackleford

      That is an interesting perspective (as someone who is detached). I hope it is wrong, but I think you may be right.

    • Anonymous

      It will be one of 3 scenarios: Romney or Oblama wins by a nose, or Romney wins big. Oblama will not get more that 275 EV’s this time at the most. I believe strongly that Mitt will get anywhere from 285-315, unless the “Chicago process” steps in and monkeys with the voting.

      • German Observer

        RSE, I really wonder, what kind of weed you are smoking.

        Romney never ever will win big. Whatever you intend to say with mentioning a Chicago process lets be totally clear, that tricking voters (“vote by phone”, “your voting-date is Wednesday”, complicated ballots etc.) and intimidating and surpressing them is a specialty of the Republicans, widely employed again this year. But even that won’t help to let Romney win big. The only means to get him there is to scroll the wheels within the voting computers again (which is not to prove because having a paper printout of the vote would just be too complicated for a nation that sends people to the moon).

        Romney winning by a nose is an unlikely but possibe scenario after today’s release of the unemployment numbers. I’m sure we will have a competition again here on PD, but my guess at this point is, that Obama will win with at least 290, with possibly up to 330.

        And as an outside-bet I would put five bucks on the scenario, to have no result on Tuesday-night at all, but a couple of lawsuits, recounts and what else is written in the book of your crazy election-system.

        • Anonymous

          It’s the President’s own special Hawaiian Choom Blend. Rolled in narcissism and topped off with a special dip into a cup of arrogance ;)

          I agree that the likelihood of some legal issues a la 2000 is very real. Hope it doesn’t come to that.

          OK, with voter suppression – you are obviouslyt sucking down whatever the Huff Po and Daily Kos are feeding you, but it must really smell bad because “R” voter suppression is a load of bull. And voter ID is a false canard – the only reason its being employed is because of the umbrella groups like ACORN that are practicing outright voter fraud in every state they possibly can. Seriously, how can you from a foreign country lecture me on voter fraud and intimidation? That’s like me lecturing you on political corruption in the city of Munich or Frankfurt.

          Even if Obama wins, he does not get over 275. Even with winning OH, WI, & NH and losing FL, VA, & CO (which are all real possibilities at this point), that doesn’t get him more than 275. So your own landslide projection of an Obama wipeout and getting over 300 is wildly inaccurate.

          • German Observer

            “OK, with voter suppression – you are obviouslyt sucking down whatever
            the Huff Po and Daily Kos are feeding you,”

            Even if you dislike the messanger, you should recognize the message. And the reports about all sorts of attempts to manipulate the election outcome in favor of the Republicans are legion and not confined to the media you mentioned.

            “but it must really smell bad
            because “R” voter suppression is a load of bull. And voter ID is a
            false canard – the only reason its being employed is because of the
            umbrella groups like ACORN that are practicing outright voter fraud in
            every state they possibly can.”

            I don’t fetch out the links I have posted here twice for a third time. But there are very serious studies which prove, that voter fraud has not decided any election in the nearer past. Other means have done so. The Florida butterfly-ballot in 2000 is just one small example to make it short at this point.

            “Seriously, how can you from a foreign
            country lecture me on voter fraud and intimidation? That’s like me
            lecturing you on political corruption in the city of Munich or
            Frankfurt.”

            The reason is that I value the US and your values so much. Remember all the people who sacrificed their lives in the war of independence to reach freedom and democracy, remember all the honorable men, who gave their lives on foreign soils, Geermany among, to spread out democracy, remember your pride on inauguration day for the peacefulness of transmission of power. I love and value all that so much, that I dare to remind you, that your elections are NOT beyond doubt, but subject to serious debate all the time – and thus your democracy.

            If you find that unpolite, sorry for that, but so be it – and its worth it. And if you have information about inicidents of corruption, in Munich, Frankfurt, Berlin, feel free to tell me (or as you like to put it: “lecture” me) about. But you should be aware then, that I am on the side of the guys who dislike corruption and want to have revealed and repealed it, whenever it happens (and it does occasionally) – which obviuosly is not the case vice versa regarding the matter of sober elections.

            “Even if Obama wins, he does not get over 275. Even with winning OH,
            WI, & NH and losing FL, VA, & CO (which are all real
            possibilities at this point), that doesn’t get him more than 275. So
            your own landslide projection of an Obama wipeout and getting over 300
            is wildly inaccurate.”

            We shall see in a few days.

      • German Observer

        Oh, and I forgot one prediction, that we certainly can agree on: on January 20 of the next year there will be sworn in a president, who is somewhere between liberal and moderate, but definetly not conservative.

  • Anonymous

    FL, VA, NC – Done. For Romney on the 6th.
    CO, IA, NH – Confident they will turn too
    WI, OH, PA – frontlines right now. I predict at least WI will go. Maybe OH. Would love to see PA, but not confident we can all out-vote the Philly Dem machine.
    MN, OR – Oh, how that would be sweet fantasy to see crunchy granolas reject the messiah!

    • German Observer

      Eddie, you sound like a kid who is looking forward for chritsmas for weeks and weeks.

      I predict, that on christmas eve what you will find under the christmas tree is … socks.

      • Anonymous

        Ha! How did you know? I have black ones on my list for this year…
        Actually, the holiday I have in mind is more like Emancipation Day.

        • German Observer

          Black Socks? Isn’t that unpatriotic, even unamerican if you don’t have them in a red-white-blue-combination?

          As our good friend Whodat once stated Germans are without humor by nature. Despite all literature I read about beeing funny and all courses I attended at our local adult education centre, I couldn’t compensate for that lack. So please don’t use puns, irony, sarcasm or even plain straight jokes when texting with me. In the end I would really believe, that you have a hollyday called emancipation day. I mean, at the end of the day you are still Americans …

          • Anonymous

            Yes, Whodat, our prescient friend, was spot on with the humor assessment. In the future, I will mark all my jokes and puns with emoticons :) so you can prepare yourself with gut-busting humor that is sure to entertain you for hours! :) (see, there’s one right there).

  • Florida Orange

    Romney certainly can win the nomination, but not without Florida and North Carolina.

    Colorado is nearly a must-win for Romney also.

    Then Ohio sure would make things easier.

    Then he would still need to win Virginia or Wisconsin or both of New Hampshire/Iowa.

    Romney could win without Ohio, but would need Virginia and Wisconsin along with either NH or IA.

    All 11 states that are considered toss-ups voted for Obama in 2008. In other words, every state that voted Republican last time will do so again next week.

  • Rusty Shackleford

    I predict that Romney will win Texas. As for the lessor 49 states….I’m not sure.