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Filed Under Rate that Ad on Feb 29 

Mitt Romney managed two victories yesterday, including a slim one in Michigan, where a loss could have done considerable damage to his campaign.

Santorum is taking some heat for his robocalls to Democrats, and the backlash could lead to yet another Newt Gingrich comeback, who saw his number uptick in the Gallup Daily Tracking.

Gingrich is looking to use his home state of Georgia to launch into some Super Tuesday success next week.

Ron Paul is looking at Washington and Vermont as states giving him the best chance for wins. He’s even hitting Mitt Romney in his ads there.

Use this thread to discuss tonight’s Michigan and Arizona Republican Primary results. If you recall, the Iowa Caucus results thread was one of the most popular in the history of PoliticalDerby. You can find live results data at Google Politics. Also, I’ll also be a panelist on the Deseret News live chat sometime after 7:30 pm EST. Come by if you’d like. I have no idea what to expect as this is the first time they’ve invited me to participate.



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The final Michigan PD Composite Poll shows no conclusive leader as Romney is ahead by less that 1 point based on the effects on the Composite of polls released late yesterday. Whomever earns the votes of last-to-decide Michiganders seems likely to end up the victor.

Also, use this thread to predict the winners and percentages for both Michigan and Arizona. If anyone nails the top four and percentages to the nearest whole number for both states, Jason will send you a book from his personal stash. Tie breakers will be determined by tenths of percentages. Your entry comment must be time stamped by 5 pm EST.

Tuesday open thread

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Filed Under Open Thread on Feb 28 

After a painful lull in the 2012 race, today political junkies get to watch votes fly again in Arizona and Michigan. Romney is a lock in the former, but Michigan sits within the margin of error. Romney’s up 0.8% in the PDC, but could Santorum’s final-hour call for democrats to vote in the GOP primary put him over the top?

Newt, desperate not to be forgotten after deciding to skip today’s primaries, is sharpening his attacks on Santorum down south. Does Gingrich have a prayer any place but Georgia?

Much has been made recently about the controversy surrounding the US military burning the Koran in Afghanistan, the Afghani response to it and President Obama’s apology for the whole thing.

The US military is accused of burning the Muslim holy book, the Koran. Virtually no press or coverage has been expended on why the U.S. military would have done such a thing. Has the general public been left to think that perhaps this was a wanton, indiscriminate act of reckless, disrespectful destruction on the part of our military? Has a reason been given by the Mainstream Media as to why this occurred?
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Mitt Romney has now led Michigan in four consecutive polls. However, Rick Santorum is within the margin of error in three of the four, leading to today’s Michigan Composite showing Romney with a slim 2.4 percent lead.

A win by Romney in Michigan combined with his expected blowout in Arizona would likely give him considerable momentum going into Super Tuesday, potentially securing the nomination. However, a Santorum win in Michigan combined with a Romney win in Arizona would likely drive this race to continue in its current state, perhaps all the way to the convention, without a clear leader.

Tomorrow primaries are being held in Arizona and Michigan. Romney looks to take the prize in Arizona. Rasmussen shows Romney in the lead in Michigan with 40%. The PD composite has it much closer. Many are squaring Michigan as a must win for Romney. If he wins, does he walk away with the nomination? What if he loses? Do you take NJ Gov. Christie’s position, that if Romney loses Michigan, it sets up a brokered convention? Political Junkies, hold onto your seats!

Gun control activists built their anti-liberty agenda around a simple theme: Guns kill. Never mind that firearms — like any weapon or tool — can accomplish neither good nor evil without an operator. Firearms are so evil that children shouldn’t even play with toy replicas. But banning toy guns is ridiculous, isn’t it? Not so fast. Read more

It’s the final weekend before votes begin flying again in Arizona and Michigan. Romney continues to lead in Arizona, though it’s tightened in recent weeks. The gap has closed in Michigan too, leaving Democrats trying to decide whether Rick Santorum’s candidacy is ‘for real‘, President Obama’s campaign team’s actions tell another story. He is running anti-Romney ads in Michigan, signaling that his team would prefer a run again Rick Santorum, who is less likely to appeal to independents.

Could there be a late Republican entry? Conn Carroll offers up three scenarios where a newbie could still enter the race.

Meanwhile, John Stossel tries to open a lemonade stand in New York City and writes how “in the name of public safety, politicians strangle opportunity”.







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With sufficient data for building the Composite going back only to the first of February, we don’t have as significant of trends to follow for the Michigan Composite. However, there is clear movement over the past 10 days, with Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney moving in opposite directions.

In what is likely our first indication of voter sentiment since the last debate, Romney has retaken the lead at the time when it matters most, and appears to be surging. With leads of 3 points and 6 points in the Mitchell/Rosetta Stone and Rasmussen Reports polls conducted yesterday, Romney is likely to be victorious in what has become a must-win contest for his candidacy.

How can a single innocuous phrase land one ESPN employee a 30-day suspension, cause another employee’s termination, and prompt a national rant about racism? In a bygone day, when common sense trumped banal emotionalism, we’d have laughed at the possibility. But it’s today’s reality and we’re all worse for our so-called enlightenment. 

ESPN’s broadcast and electronic media employed the phrase “Chink in the armor” in reference to New York Knicks guard Jeremy Lin’s first subpar performance. Lin is of Asian heritage. The offending parties became instant racists, and the comments pronouncing their guilt are as innumerable as they are mindless. My question is, quite honestly, has everyone lost their minds? Read more

Last night’s debate was nearly unwatchable. It was an example of why people don’t like politicians, a night of misrepresentations, half-truths, and bitterness. Who were the winners and losers? Or were there only losers?

On another note, the ways of the politician have apparently rubbed off on me. We have flip-flopped and decided our son’s name is Stockton.

Use this thread to discuss tonight’s debate. This is a very, very important contest, that last before Super Tuesday, as the debates have had a significant impact on voters’ decisions.

If for some reason you don’t get get CNN, you can stream the debate here.

Tonight we revisit the event that shaped the early contests in what is developing into a long term slog: a debate. Tonight’s debate could play a significant role in who will eventually become the GOP nominee for the 2012 election, as it is the last debate before Super Tuesday.

Questions abound!

Can Mitt Romney again assert himself as he did in the debates leading up to Florida?

With a strong performance, can Rick Santorum position himself as the man to beat?

Is the forgotten Newt Gingrich able to pull another Lazarus-like rise with one of his signature debate performances?

Will the networks once again make themselves look silly by unfairly giving Ron Paul an embarrassingly limited amount of time to speak?

Tune in tonight!

Satan has his sights set on the United States of America!!

Well, isn’t that just special?!?

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In all seriousness, I have a great respect for Senator Santorum, but the opposition research has just begun and it seems to me he just doesn’t have a good internal censor to keep him from spouting off stuff that gives ammunition to his opponents.

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Filed Under Rate that Ad on Feb 21 

We’re one week from a major test in Michigan and just two weeks from Super Tuesday. In the meantime, Romney’s burning cash while Santorum rakes it in. How about Newt? 100 million might do the trick.

In the Capitalist system, people’s images can become a commercial commodity with relative ease. Most of these images are trademarked by the company utilizing them to prevent unauthorized or improper use excepting parodies covered by the first amendment. However, what happens when the figures being used are not the product of an advertising think tank, but historical figures who are a part of the shared heritage of the nation? Consider the following advertisement:

Maybe it’s just me, but I can’t help but find the image of deceased American presidents dancing in order to sell furniture insulting. What do you think? Should there be regulations or trademarks in place to protect the dignity of our founding fathers and other historical figures, or would steps of that nature taken either by the government or private historical groups end up restricting free speech? Sound off in the comments!

Santorum’s surge continues. Bob Schieffer can’t understand how someone who simply would not consent to having an abortion wouldn’t want prenatal testing. If you are certain you are going to have the baby regardless of the test results, why have a test that causes undue stress? Some of these are only moderately accurate. My wife and I have had to argue with the doctors with each of our four children to get them to NOT perform prenatal testing because we would never consent to an abortion.

Meanwhile, I have a baby in the hospital and in-laws in my house. You come to your own conclusions.