January 4, 2012 PD Composite: New Hampshire

By Scott A. Robinson, Editor

Filed Under PD Composite Poll: New Hampshire on Jan 4 





Note: Click graphic to enlarge.

Mitt Romney has a commanding lead in New Hampshire and will not be overtaken with only a week to go in the constitutionally mandated first primary in the nation. Ron Paul looks to be a solid second, but with only half the support, or less, than Romney enjoys.

The real battle in New Hampshire is for the relevance of the Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, and Rick Santorum campaigns. Gingrich is in a nose dive, which could bode well for Huntsman, as they are in a virtual tie in the Composite. It seems at this point, Gingrich is only in the race for his ego’s sake.

Rick Santorum has a near-impossible task. He went all-in in Iowa, much as Huntsman has in New Hampshire. Except Santorum does not have one of the world’s wealthiest men as a father as Huntsman does. Santorum has virtually no organization outside of Iowa and almost no money. Despite winning Iowa, moving forward, Santorum has to show potential donors he is worth their investment.

Huntsman on the other hand has gone all-in in New Hampshire, even openly mocking Iowa, and will at best finish third, very distant from Mitt Romney and behind Ron Paul. That is not much to show for focusing your entire campaign on one state, which is why many commentators wonder why Huntsman even bothers.

Comments

  • Troy La Mana

    As much as some don’t like it, Paul is a viable candidate with a 3rd in Iowa and apparently a 2nd in New Hampshire.

    • David Kaiser

      So let me get this straight, you tell us Mitt Romney isn’t viable, yet Ron Paul, who stumbled to third in Iowa and who we don’t how he will end up in New Hampshire, is?

      Just checking.

      • Troy La Mana

        Romney isn’t viable for many reasons. People here have said Paul isn’t viable but the results say otherwise. The polls indicate a 2nd place finish in NH. Just sayin’

        • David Kaiser, Editor

          That might have been the single worst post you’ve ever made Troy.

          You lamely try to defend your position on Mitt Romney not being viable with this earth-shattering statement: “Romney isn’t viable for many reasons.”

          No examples, no defense, no nothing. That’s like a little kid saying “because I said so” and sticking out his tongue!

          Care to enlighten us?

          By your logic, Ron Paul is viable because he finished third in Iowa, a disappointing third mind you, and because he’s currently second in the polls in New Hampshire?

          So if that’s why Paul is viable, please attempt to explain to me why Mitt Romney isn’t, when he won Iowa and in all the most likely scenarios will win New Hampshire going away?

          Hold on, I’m getting some popcorn, because I can’t wait to here the science fiction you come up with to explain this one to us.

  • Steve M.

    I think Huntsman could have a Santorum-esque push in NH, stealing Gingrich & Paul votes and ending up a not-nearly-as-close-as-Iowa second. I think second, even a distant one, would be enough to keep Huntsman in until Florida or Nevada. I think that’s bad for Romney (much the way Newt/Perry being in is bad for Santorum) because the Huntsman votes will almost assuredly go to Romney in the end, it’ll just give the ABR crowd time to coalesce.

    • Steve M.

      and take delegates from Romney.

  • Rob

    1/4 Rasmussen NH poll:
    .
    Romney 38
    Paul 24
    Santorum 11
    Newton 9
    Huntsman 8
    Perry 1
    Not sure 10

    • Rob

      Sorry apparently it’s actually Zogby

      • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

        We don’t use Zogby. Though these results aren’t far off from the Composite.

        • Rob

          I’m aware, didn’t even realize Zogby still existed, tbh.

  • WilliamK

    Santorum must be short of cash, his web page has only been a donation page since Iowa.

    • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

      Santorum is short of cash. He had virtually no fundraising before his Iowa result. Off the top of my head, I believe it was less than $1 million. He wouldn’t even be able to run ads for one week in Florida for $1 million.

      • Rob

        Yeah, he had a 4 day moneybomb a month or so ago that I believe raised less than $100k lol.

  • KC

    This composite is much more like it! I come here and read PD every day and after seeing the composite below and where you had Newt, I was thinking you no longer knew what you were talking about!

    And speaking of Newt, he is so classless! I can’t imagine voting for him even if I agreed with his viewpoints.

    Perry staying in the race is hopefully going to be good for Mitt!

    • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

      I think you may be referring to the National Composite. By the most recently available national polls, Gingrich is still only a couple of points behind Romney. However, we fully expect this to change significantly has there has been almost no national polling for two and half weeks other than the daily Gallup Tracking poll.

  • Gary Russell

    This graph is Exhibit A in the argument to kick New Hampshire out of the Union.

    • Brian H

      And I thought it was Exhibit A as to why we should make NH the nation’s capital.

  • Brian H

    Somebody needs to tell Gingrich he won’t drastically “change Washington” because he is completely unelectable at a national, or even state caucus level. Newt’s tantrum is sickening and I hope the “establishment” unleashes hounds on this bitter angry undisciplined old man. He hates the fact that people were reminded why they stopped liking him in the first place by once again doing the things that made them not like him in the first place.
    .
    Santorum better run like hell from Newt’s coalition building idea.

    • Troy La Mana

      You don’t like Newt because he now has a vendetta against your candidate. Gingrich is determined to take Romney down no matter what it takes.

      • Brian H

        Right. It is sad that Newt’s skin is so thin that a once serious presidential candidate operates on vendettas. How dangerous would such a person be with the USA military under his command?

        • Troy La Mana

          At least he’ll do the country a great favor on the way out.