Voting begins today. The Political Derby Composite: Iowa remains fairly constant from yesterday with Mitt Romney at 22.3 percent, Ron Paul 21.9 percent, and Rick Santorm 17.5 percent. This prognosticator is picking a Santorum win and a Newt Gingrich fifth place finish. The New York Times projections show Romney with a 42 percent chance of winning, Paul 34 percent, and Santorum 20 percent. The Times also says of the thousands of primary and caucus polls it has analyzed going back to the 1970s that 40 percent of candidates fall outside of the margin of error (polls are typically done at a 95 percent confidence level, meaning in theory this should happen no more than five percent of the time). In other words, primary and caucus polls are not particularly accurate. Meanwhile, Romney has a new-found confidence of his chances in Iowa, proclaiming yesterday: “We’re going to win this thing.”

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