OK handicappers, here’s your chance to make your Iowa predictions! List the candidates in order and what percentage of the vote they will receive.

Comments

  • David Kaiser, Editor

    Looks like AllenSC is the only one that got the order exactly correct. Nice work!

  • Rusty Shackleford

    Huntsman 83%
    Cain 5%
    Paul 33%

    With a serious discussion about vote tampering.

  • Brian H

    C’mon, Paulsters. Please. It can’t be a shocker as to why people would be skeptical of Ron Paul support in an online poll. The skepticism is not unfounded based on historical observations.

  • German Observer

    1. Santorum: 23,2
    2. Paul: 22,7
    3. Romney: 22,6
    4. Gingrich: 13
    5. Perry: 10
    6. Bachmann: 6
    7. Huntsman 2,5

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    All you need to know about this poll is that Herman Cain, yes, Herman Cain, the same Herman Cain who isn’t even running anymore, is getting 3.24% (11,152 votes).
    .
    But seriously, it’s no secret Paul does very well in online polls. (and straw polls) I don’t attribute it to cheating, even if others have. I attribute to a very fired up fan base and effective online tools to mobilize. I’ve never criticized him for winning a lot of these, I’m simply discounted their value. (which based on his 2008 poll-to-actual vote tallies, proved me right)

  • Stephen S

    1. Paul (27%)
    2. Romney (26%)
    3. Santorum (21%)

    4. Gingrich (9%)
    5. Perry (8%)
    6. Bachmann (7%)

    7. Huntsman (1%)

    Paul wins Iowa (barely)
    – Bachmann drops out, endorses Rick Perry
    Romney wins New Hampshire (overwhelmingly)
    – Huntsman drops out, endorses Romney
    Gingrich wins South Carolina (barely)
    Romney wins Florida (by 5 points or so)
    – Perry drops out, endorses Romney

  • Promise Kept

    Fresh from the front page of Drudge, and exactly the 4% lead for Paul, so far, as I predicted above on 12/31. Coincidence? I think not.

    “DRUDGE CAUCUSES OPEN NOW
    PAUL 29% ROMNEY 25% SANTORUM 18%”

    • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

      Ron Paul winning an online poll? Has that ever happened before???

      • Promise Kept

        Apparently, Drudge’s polling is able to break down his readership into geographic specifics.

        DRUDGE READERS FROM IOWA VOTE:

        PAUL 652 32.31%
        SANTORUM 429 21.26%
        ROMNEY 426 21.11%

    • David Kaiser, Editor

      Just to prove how completely ridiculous it is to put any stock whatsoever into an online poll, I just walked up the stairs to one of the computer labs in the building I work at and voted for Jon Huntsman 30 times.

      For the final time – ONLINE POLLS ARE NOT LEGITIMATE.

      Thank you, drive through.

      • Rob

        Nah, it’s only accepting 1 vote per IP address. Already checked that.

        • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

          Really? I just did one on each of three browsers and I work at a major corporation where I’m most likely not the first voter.

          • Rob

            It will let you vote, it’s just not counting the additional votes.

            • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

              Nah. It’s tracking through cookies. The one Drudge put on my browser is called PD_poll_5809156, which I find quite funny. If it has already counted your vote, it tells you it has. So all you have to do is continually clear that cookie and vote over and over again.

              • Promise Kept

                Thanks for the cookie lesson, Scott. I didn’t know the poll could be tweaked that way, and I’ve never run across that at Paul-friendlier forums.

        • Promise Kept

          Rob’s right on this, Jason. Look at the top of the results window, and you’ll find, “Thank you, we have already counted your vote.”

          I wouldn’t have thought to try this if you hadn’t put out the challenge, but I am not surprised to find this exactly as Rob reported. This technology has easily enabled screening online polls to be done this way for years now.

          I thought you’d know better than to float the notion otherwise, but I don’t politically fault you for trying. Maybe the attention to this Drudge’s poll here might actually cause everyone here to participate who want to reduce Paul’s percentages.
          Hurry on over, folks, because Paul’s dominating among the 250,000 votes: PAUL 30% ROMNEY 25% SANTORUM 17%

          • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

            You only have to delete the cookie it puts on your browser. Try it out. It’s not hard.

            • Promise Kept

              I’ll let your multi-vote to stay for whoever, rather than try to “get even” by the means you’ve taught us.

              There could be an ethical use of cookie clearing, if a couple or, say, troops in the field only have one computer or smart phone to vote from.

          • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

            PK, why are you addressing your comment to me?

            • Promise Kept

              I was responding to your comment way above where my post ended up, when you said,”Ron Paul winning an online poll? Has that ever happened before???”

              It is one of the more confusing aspects of the PD’s posting system, and why I use peoples name’s more often than I might otherwise.

      • JOEW

        What online poll was that David?

  • Brian H

    Paul – 100%
    Others – 0%

    • JOEW

      You forgot T-Paw 2012!!!!

  • Steve M.

    1. Romney (23%)
    2. Santorum (22.5%)
    3. Paul (18%)
    4. Perry (12%)
    5. Bachmann (11%)
    6. Gingrich (11%)
    7. Huntsman (1.5%)

    • Promise Kept

      Steve, I just reposted our posts from 12/21 and 12/22 above.

      How did I guess this so well? Just by keen observations of human nature, and some bird watching, of course!

      I’m curious about your “.5″ specifics on Santorum and Huntsman.

  • Gary Russell

    1. Santorum
    2. Romney
    3. Paul
    4. Gingrich
    5. Perry
    6. Bachmann
    7. Huntsman

  • Promise Kept

    This race was, and is, really between Paul and Romney all along. They were the only candidates to have delegates at the 2008 GOP convention, with Paul’s numbers TEN times those of Romney.
    .
    When the smoke clears, and the pundits have all told us what to think of it; the nation, and the world, will know how this two-man race is being spun, and will have a better view of which of these two they ought to support.

  • Stephen Fountain, Editor

    1. Romney 25%
    2. Santorum 23%
    3. Paul 21%
    4. Perry 12%
    5. Gingrich 10%
    7. Bachmann 8%
    8. Huntsman 1%

  • Whodat

    1. Santorum 24.5%
    2. Romney 24%
    3. Paul 20.5%
    4. Perry 13%
    5. Gingrich 12%
    6. Bachmann 5%
    7. Huntsman <1%

  • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

    1. Santorum 28%
    2. Romney 24%
    3. Paul 20%
    4. Gingrich 14%
    5. Perry 10%
    6. Bachmann 4%
    7. Huntsman <1%

    This will also effectively end the campaigns of Paul and Bachmann.

    • dw

      Did you really mean that it would end the Paul campaign, or did you mean the Perry campaign? I can’t see the Paul campaign ending with a third place finish.

    • Promise Kept

      Really, Scott? The candidate with the least support from our active military, and the one who speaks the loudest about sending them into harm’s way, is somehow going to win the voters of Iowa over the top, and “effectively end” Paul’s campaign?!?

      With high military involvement per capita, Iowan’s have family members on the front-line of the Bush/Obama foreign policies. They know that voting anyone other than Paul will only push more of the same multiple tours of undeclared wars, and the occupation of who-knows-where, when, or why.
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxST4F5HCx4

      • Promise Kept

        Oops, the video link above was to a playlist. It’s all good, but more than I intended to post. I submitted a revision, but while it’s awaiting moderation, here is the specific video I wanted to bring y’all, with Paul, and Iowans veterans speaking up for him.

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxST4F5HCx4

        Thanks for the speedy moderation. It was faster than my correction note above. :-)

    • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

      It’s been said before and I’ll say it again, lay out Paul’s path to victory. It simply doesn’t exist. If anyone is in a must-win situation in Iowa, it’s Ron Paul. He needs the momentum advantage for voters in other states to see him as viable. But it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.

  • David Kaiser, Editor

    1. Romney 25%
    2. Santorum 23%
    3. Paul 19%
    4. Perry 12%
    5. Gingrich 11%
    7. Bachmann 8%
    8. Huntsman 2%

  • Whodat

    Re-posted from the latest graph, but posted here for the record so I can say “I told ya so”…

    My picks today:
    1) Santorum wins because he is the last “not-Romney” to rise, and at e-zackly the right time!
    2) Romneycare places by a nose and nobody can explain why because so many think “anybody else”
    3) Paul (Kookie Monster) shows that if voting is held when college kids are on break, that they don’t all come back to caucus like they promised they would.
    4) Perry leads the also rans because his most ardent supporters can’t remember what an empty-headed doo-fuss he is.
    5) Gingrich’s fall to 5th rewrites a couple of physical laws on gravity – even Newton would say, “nothing falls that fast!”
    6) Bachmann will learn that women are extra hard on other women for reasons that most men cannot understand.
    7) Huntsman will use his fluency in Mandarin to explain his bad fortune, cookie. Boo hao!
    .
    Remember this: Iowa is an isolated place of no particular consequence and generates almost nothing in the way of interest except for a few months every four years. So, Iowans like to do strange things in their brief moment that is memorable and, to Iowans, that means “weird”. So, stand by for weird.
    .
    And on to New Hampshire, another cold place with lots of shut-ins – where Santorum will have a tough time because it is hard to say his name without using an “r”, but, as the new “Not-Romney” he will roll to 2nd – because the ads attacking Paul will have started to return him to where he belongs: within the margin of error.
    .
    So sayeth Whodat, whilst reserving the right to revise and extend all comments…

    • Promise Kept

      Whodat, it’s funny you would call Santorum’s spike “at e-zackly the right time”, an inevitable win for him.
      Below is a pasting of a post between Steve M. and I, where I predicted, “the party may throw them, (Huntsman and him), some eggs, (media and financial support), if they’re needed, (to defeat Paul).”

      “Steve M. on 21.12.2011 at 11:42 (Reply)

      Is there time for another phoenix to rise from the ashes before Mitt gets the default nomination? Paul? Huntsman? Santorum? A re-rise of someone else?

      Promise Kept on 22.12.2011 at 23:14 (Reply)

      I had to ponder your Phoenix reference, because none of the candidates fit that legendary bird’s description. Starting with Bachmann’s barn owl swoop, Perry’s pelican plunge, followed by Cain’s whooping crane crash; these birds flew higher than most expected, but are still smoldering after falling down, or in Cain’s case, out.

      Santorum’s seagull and Huntsman’s hummingbird have never appealed to many outside their niche nestings, but the party may throw them some eggs if their needed.

      Gingrich’s goose is far from golden, closer to cooked; and Romney’s raven is still too dark a bird for many to count him “default”; so that leaves only Paul’s peregrine falcon to continue to rise to the place he was destined for.

  • je

    And after the caucuses are done, other predictions:
    Romney celebrates knowing he is the nominee to be.
    Ron Paul trudges on, knowing he will not win the nom but trying to affect the direction of the party. His followers (and i am a supporter of much of his positions) will become increasingly angry that he wont abandon the republicans, but much like myself have no one else they can support.
    Santorum stays in with newfound support, but his lack ground game elsewhere will see him fall soon after.
    Newt will cry.
    Perry hangs in due to money on hand.
    Huntsman stays in due to money in pockets.
    Bachman schedules presser to drop out.

  • Joe W

    Why don’t you ask what the Gingrich people will say or what the Santorum people will say?

    • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

      Because they have not been guaranteeing a victory.

      • Joe W

        Really? thats what your going with? Every campaign is trying to win give me a break. Do you really think the GOP (spinless jellyfish) would let Ron Paul win? Heck no Its Crony Capitalist finest day, when they pick there new leader.

        • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

          Sigh.

        • Brian H

          You tell him, Joe! Long live conspiracy!
          .
          That is why debating Paulites is pointless. They simply fall back on the New World Order keeping down their guy. Absurd.

          • Promise Kept

            I know that answering your posts will only result in your usual non sequitur replies, Brian, but for the sake of other readers here, I’ll post this to you anyway.
            .
            The WSJ carried an excellent article by a Cato Institute co-founder and president, Edward H. Crane, titled, “Why Ron Paul Matters”.
            http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204632204577129132189244456.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
            .
            Put that along side an article from the Washington Times titled, “Israeli spy chief downplays Iranian nuke threat”, and read his quote therein: “Zeevi Farkash, Israel’s former military intelligence chief, has said that Iran’s main drive for acquiring atomic weapons is not for use against Israel but as a deterrent against U.S. intervention, in much the same way that nuclear-armed North Korea feels secure against a U.S. attack.”

            http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/dec/29/israeli-spy-chief-downplays-iranian-nuke-threat/

            • Brian H

              World Without Zionism…his eminency Imam Khomeini … said that the “occupation regime of Qods [Israel] must be wiped off from the map of the world, and with the help of the Almighty, we shall soon experience a world without America and Zionism, notwithstanding those who doubt.”
              .
              “Useful Idiots” are nothing new.

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    Some pretty great guesses here.
    .
    After predicting a victory, what will Paul’s people say if he finishes third?

    • Joe W

      They will say down with Romney. GOOOOOO third party.

      • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

        If Paul goes third party, that’s the end of Rand Paul’s chances. And a good friend and Paul supporter (cough cough) once told me this is all about setting the stage for Rand…

        • Brian H

          You have a friend who is a Paul supporter?
          .
          Friends don’t let friends vote Ron Paul.

    • Promise Kept

      Hey Jason, look at our time stamps above.

      We posted within the same minute, with my post coming in just seconds before yours!

      I predicted Paul’s win by a gap just the opposite of your weak third party speculations.

      I think Ron’s understated rest from campaigning; only to turn the final day over to Rand, will go down in political history as the wisest hand-off ever given between such a like-minded father and son dynamic duo!

      • Brian H

        I can’t ever tell when the Paulective is being serious or joking. Is there a difference?

  • Promise Kept

    I trust the good people of Iowa to give Paul at least a 4-5% win over Romney.
    .
    Whoever is below that is really no big deal from here on, especially Santorum!

    • Brian H

      If they don’t will it be the bad people of Iowa? Or ….conspiracy!

  • Todd B

    1: Romney 30%
    2: Paul 20%
    3: Santorum 18%
    4: Gingrich 13%
    5: Perry 8%
    6: Bachman 7%
    7: Mickey Mouse (and other Disney characters) 4%

    With some of the caucuses realizing that they don’t want to be seen as Iowa rednecks, they will instead vote for the “national front runner”, Willard Romney.

  • Jacosta

    The DMR just published the results of a 4-day polling period, and here are the results:
    1st: Romney 24%
    2nd: Paul 22%
    3rd: Santorum 15%

    But, here’s an interesting flash that the Register shared – that if they only went on the last two days of polling (voters making up their minds a lot more than the previous two days), that Paul slips to third:

    1st: Romney 24%
    2nd: Santorum 21%
    3rd: Paul 18%

    What this means is that Paul is losing favor with Iowa voters, as predicted by most political/GOP commentators, who believe that Romney will take both Iowa and New Hampshire.

  • Joe W

    Paul 28%
    Romney 21%
    Santorum 16%
    Thats the real numbers.

    What will be reported
    Romney 25%
    Paul 21%
    Santorum 19%

    Then the real fight breaks out. The Iowa GOP will facture the party due to unfair play. Lawsuit will abound.

  • AllenSC

    1st – Romney – 24%
    2nd – Santorum – 22%
    3rd – Paul – 20%
    4th – Gingrich – 15%
    5th – Perry – 10%
    6th – Bachmann – 7%
    7th – Huntsman – 2%

  • Alaina

    Iowa prediction
    1st Romney 25%
    2nd Paul 22%
    3rd Santorum 21%
    4th Newt 15%
    5th Perry 10%
    5th Bachman 6%
    7th Huntsmen 3%

  • je

    Romney 23%
    Paul 22% (But his supporters claim fraud)
    Santorum 19%
    Newt 15%
    Perry 11%
    Bachman 8%
    Huntsman 2%

    • Promise Kept

      Everyone ought to consider the value of their vote, especially among those who seem to care so little about offering the voters ANY measurable accountability, simply by denying access to their system’s proprietary technology!

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKkNR3JisGQ

    • Troy La Mana

      They might have a point since the votes are going to be counted in secret.

  • Brian H

    Iowa prediction
    1st Romney 25%
    2nd Paul 22%
    3rd Santorum 18%
    4th Newt 16%
    5th Perry 10%
    5th Bachman 8
    7th Huntsmen 3%

  • Red State Eddie

    Romney – 23
    Paul – 21
    Santorum – 17
    Gingrich – 14
    Perry – 12
    Bachmann – 5
    Huntsman – who cares!

    • Red State Eddie

      Updated guess:
      Romney – 26
      Santorum – 23
      Paul – 21
      Perry – 13
      Gingrich – 12
      Bachmann – 4
      Huntsman – still who cares!

  • Dana

    What it will be:
    1.Romney
    2.Paul
    3.Santorum
    4.Perry
    5.Gingrich
    6.Bachman
    7.Huntsman

    What I HOPE it will be:
    1.Perry
    2.Santorum
    3.Bachman
    4…..don’t care after these 3

  • DW

    1. Paul 23%
    2. Santorum 19%
    3. Romney 18%
    4. Gingrich 9%
    5. Perry
    6. Bachmann
    7. Huntsman
    Percentages on the last three will be too small to matter

  • Rob

    1st: Paul
    2nd: Romney
    3rd: Santorum
    4th: Gingrich
    5th: Bachmann
    6th: Perry
    7th: Huntsman
    8th: Brian H’s desperate post-caucus damage control

  • Jacosta

    1st: Romney
    2nd: Paul
    3rd: Santorum (Santorum may overtake Paul)
    4th: Gingrich
    5th: Perry
    6th: Bachmann (she will bow out of race within hours/days)
    7th: Huntsman (should follow Bachmann’s lead in leaving race)

    • Alaina

      I’ll second that.