This is your open thread to discuss tonight’s Caucus results.

Comments

  • Promise Kept

    Thanks for a tough question, Jason. Not being a gambler, I have tough time dealing with the odds among so many variables.
    I’ll ponder your question a bit more before answering further, but I assume I’m being asked because of the relative accuracy of my early-on predicting of far better than expected results for Paul, than many here at the PD were willing to believe him possible of.

    • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

      Your assumption would be incorrect :)
      .
      If you’re concerned about giving odds, then simply give us your gut. Will RP win the nomination?

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    PK, what odds do you give Paul of winning the nomination? (this is comment #400, do I get a free book?)

  • Promise Kept

    Sorry, my bad on the delegate vote update, I don’t have a TV at home on purpose. It was what I remembered when I went to sleep way too late this morning, and then I jumped in here late, without checking the current facts. Mea culpa, mea culpa, and thanks for the good news. Made a rainy here, a little brighter.

    Yeah, I missed checking up on my facts of how well he did last time comparatively, but you have straightened me out on how wrong I was…and how good Paul is. Where would I be without your help?
    I’d hate to think of it. Thanks again, sir!

    As for the “most rational people” perspective you have elected yourself to speak for, I purposely exaggerated the awkward dance category, just so that my earlier statement might emerge. This is a two-man race for whose distinct brand of conservatism will prevail in times like these. The Santorum vs Romney face-off that we’ve been offered, aint it!

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    There will be more on this tomorrow (today, I guess) but the big stories are obviously #1, Santorum’s incredible surge and virtual tie and #2, Paul’s fade and finish in third. The ground game didn’t deliver and they were beaten by Romney, who spent little time in the state, and Santorum, whom Paul was crushing a month ago.
    .
    It’s a nice finish for Paul compared to 2008, but it’s below expectations, and the Paul people should be concerned.

    • Promise Kept

      Paul had much better than “a nice finish compared to 2008″, Jason.
      .
      Try putting Paul’s results on one of your now-famous graphs. In the straw poll and caucuses, then and now, you’ll see a consistent growth pattern emerge that Romney simply can’t match.
      .
      Chart both Santorum’s and Romney’s straw poll votes this cycle with their caucus outcomes. Bachmann’s rise and fall was more meteoric, but neither of the winners last night can match Paul’s steady, healthy, growth pattern, eh?

      • David Kaiser, Editor

        Except that Paul dropped in several polls leading up to Iowa. He was leading Iowa a week ago and he finished in third.

        I’d hardly call that a steady, healthy growth pattern.

        • Promise Kept

          As you read, but skipped over, David; I suggested charting the official Iowan straw polls AND caucuses in ’08 and now.

          Other polling snapshots are informative for what they’re worth in the moment, but each of these official events bears more weight among Iowans and the nation at large, as they ought.

          • David Kaiser, Editor

            I don’t quite get the logic of how 2008 has much to do with 2012, but I’ll humor you on that point.

            That said even if the growth started there and continued through the Ames Straw Poll this year and ended with the Iowa Caucus yesterday, the “steady” growth ended when Paul dipped in the polls this week and finished third.

            So no, I do not agree.

            • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

              I don’t get how 2008 has anything to do with 2012 or how straw polls have anything to do with anything. Straw polls are fun to talk about but are largely irrelevant.

              • David Kaiser, Editor

                This is true Scott. The winner of the Ames Poll this year finished last among candidates who campaigned in Iowa, the third place in Ames dropped out, and the top two in the actual caucus finished 7th and 4th respectively.

                Shows you how accurate straw polls are!

              • Promise Kept

                David and Scott, you are making my point, WHILE not getting it?!
                Everyone besides Ron Paul has done the mercurial dance you scoff at, often within days or weeks of placing wherever they appear.

                Iowa gave Paul 3 delegates last night, something he didn’t get in ’08. A bronze medal in this event, yes, as Olympic awards compare, but we have 49 more events ahead.

              • David Kaiser, Editor

                Most rational people wouldn’t get your point. First of all, Romney never did this little jig you speak of, he’s had fairly consistent numbers in Iowa for a while now. Second, your point was that Ron Paul had steady growth. That’s false, because he dropped in the polls the last week and finished third. That is not steady growth, that’s steady growth, followed by a short period of decline. Add steady growth and short decline and you don’t get steady growth. You get a third place finish in Iowa.

                And, once again, your handle on the facts are as lose as always. Ron Paul won seven delegates last night, not three. He won two in 2008. So yes, he did win delegates there 2008.

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    Pretty historic night. I’m wasted, but very glad I stayed up for it.

  • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

    Final official results from Iowa.
    Total Votes: 122,255
    Romney: 30,015
    Santorum: 30,007

    • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

      Romney wins by 8 votes. That is a 0.0065% margin!!!

      • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

        That’s percent of the total vote, not percent over Santorum. Romney beats Santorum by 0.0267%.

  • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

    The Iowa Republican Party has just made a “Two Minute Warning” announcement prior to providing the official results.

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    Rove just reported on Fox than the campaigns have agreed to a final tally that will give the Iowa caucus to Mitt Romney by a whopping 14 votes. Stunning.

  • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

    Out of 121,000+votes, Mitt Romney wins by 14, according to Karl Rove.

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    You know who will never stop smiling if Santorum keeps this slim edge? Huntsman.

  • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

    WOW. ROMNEY BY 14.

  • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

    If cable commercials are bad, the late night commercials are unbearable.

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    We’re down to 4 Iowans determining the winner of a caucus that involved slightly more people than fit in University of Michigan’s football stadium. Unreal.

    • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

      How would you feel if you voted for Herman Cain? Freaking Herman Cain!

      • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

        58 votes for Cain. Unbelievable. 744 votes for Huntsman. Crazy. He said Iowans pick corn, not Presidents.

  • Michael De Groote

    If Jason puts a scenario like this in his new Last Campaign novel, nobody would believe it — too contrived.

    • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

      Amen, De Groote!

  • Brian H

    Feels like bush v gore. As yogi Berra said ” it’s deja vu all over again”

  • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

    Rove is now saying votes in a particular county may have been entered incorrectly. The the fix could potentially help Romney and hurt Santorum.

    Conspiracy theorists, you’re up.

    • Brian H

      Their on the net formulating their conspiracy as we speak. Wow. The flock completely disappeared when Paul dropped to third. I am a bit surprised they ran do hills so easily. They are always quick to defend their guy till the end.

    • Promise Kept

      Rush opened his show this morning with the very conspiracy theory you were suggesting, Scott!
      .
      Limbaugh said at the opening of his show today, that the delay in finding the two county votes was DELIBERATE, so “they” could “find” enough votes to push Romney into first place.
      .
      Since Limbaugh is the vaunted radio pundit that he believes himself to be; HE alone, can subtly accuse the Iowan Republican Party with deliberate vote tampering in Romney’s favor, and then treat the outcome as an otherwise legitimate victory for Santorum, while replaying his usual mantra that it was Paul’s “tin-foil-hat-wearing” foreign policy that kept him away from doing better than he did.
      .
      So who’s hat is foiled, and who is giving the certifiable results the benefit of the doubt as to the mysteriously delayed outcome last night?
      .
      Obviously, Limbaugh’s got aluminum on the brain, and Paul will continue to do even better!

  • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

    Fox and CNN now agree on the 4 vote margin.

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    Pajama Jeans: Discuss.

    • Brian H

      You own a pair?

      • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

        Two.

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    Anyone read a good JFW novel lately?

  • Brian H

    Crazy night

  • Brian H

    Still here. 4 votes

  • Rick B.

    CNN.com showing 1 vote between them.

  • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

    Come on Iowa. Get with it.

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    Interesting take from Fournier: http://tinyurl.com/88zjdxm

  • Alaina

    Okay… I can’t stay awake… Good night y’all!

    • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

      Don’t give in, Alaina! You’re going too miss the closest caucus in Iowa ever???

      • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

        This is killing me…. Santorum by 18 now…29,944-29,926

      • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

        I need sleep.

  • Gary Russell

    Let’s do it again next week!

  • Alaina

    I miss Major Garrett

    • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

      Agreed. He is one of my favorites.

      • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

        Very, very nice guy.

        • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

          I think that’s why he is likeable. He comes across as a personable, good guy on TV. I was disappointed when he returned to print.

  • Brian H

    Night night all. Thanks for forum. Been fun.

  • Brian H

    19 up for rick.

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    I bet the TV ratings for tonight are going to be historic.

    • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

      Yeah. Any work performances will suffer….

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    Not a fan of Rollins. He looks like a grumpy Mr. Potato Head.

  • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

    I also expected a better speech from Mitt. Started very strong, but rambled in the middle.

    • Joe

      Good night all! we’ll do it again in ole NH.
      RON PAUL 2012 WHOOP WHOOP!

  • Brian H

    CNN is saying votes left are advantage Romney.

  • http://twitter.com/#!/PD_Scott Scott A. Robinson, Editor

    I expected a better speech from Romney.

    Santorum currently up by 34.

  • Whodat

    What a nice party you all had. Who ate all the brie? Sorry I got so wrapped up in the Foxcast I forgot to take part. But, there will be other nights. I am amazed at Santorum. Never have I seen such a thing.

    • Alaina

      Scott, but I horded the champagne

  • Joe

    Paul did well and I’m pretty proud of him. Nothing to hang our heads about he lost by 3000 votes. Much better than the last election cycle

    • Brian H

      I agree. Paul did do well and he is a voice for many issues.

    • Joe

      sorry ment to put that under Jasons post.

    • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

      No, nothing to hang your heads about, but he led in the averages a week ago and many predicted (some guaranteed) a win.

  • Joe

    seriously they look like aliens or something.

    • Brian H

      it is funny. I started looking after you said blink. They don’t. Lol

      • Alaina

        Who cares? They’re still hott!

        • Troy La Mana

          Put down the wine!

  • Brian H

    Opinion of Mitt speach?

    • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

      Like Santorum, first half was good, but he’s rambling now. These guys have such a hard time knowing when to quit.

  • Joe

    My gosh fellas blink for the love of God

    • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

      I guess I should give you credit for at least hanging around tonight when the other Paul regulars headed for the hills :)

      • Brian H

        Good point. Thanks, Joe.

      • Promise Kept

        I have evening chores, nightly, that I help my mother with, Jason. I didn’t head for the hills, as you say, but was watching until the wee hours for the final tally announcement; tracking between Fox and MSNBC for their opposing takes on the results, as they waited, and talked, and waited, and talked, and… finally gave it to Romney by the slimmest of margins.
        .
        I have read all the posts from where I left off, and it’s well into the morning here on the left coast, but I thought I’d pause to reflect on a few observation from where I live.
        .
        Yes, my prediction for a Paul win by 4-5% was off by 8-9%; at least by the unofficially-certified results, which can take up to two weeks to certify. The combined difference between these two, and Paul’s results was only 8% also, right?
        .
        Having acknowledged this, Jason, is that really something Paul, and his people, ought to be much concerned about?

        We have a statistical tie between a known, but stuck in a rut, Romney; and a much less known, but suddenly popular among Iowans, Santorum.

        With 40% of Iowans, polled that night before the caucuses, saying that they were waiting until the last minute to decide who’d they’d vote for, who else among the top three would you EXPECT that they would choose?

        People who choose Paul, do so after a bit of research and more careful introspection than those who shoot-from-the-hip, and simply vote-how-they-feel.

        In short, they have us right where we want them!

  • Joe

    Are his sons stoned?

    • http://www.politicalderby.com/ Jason Wright, Editor

      Oh quit hating, Joe, just because your guy finished 3rd.

  • Brian H

    Romney is setting right tone!!! Looks happy! Presidential!

  • Alaina

    Wow… Romney’s sons are really hott!

    • Brian H

      Jason was thinking the same thing.

  • Joe

    boring!