Filed Under PD Composite Poll: Iowa on Jan 2
Note: Click graphic to enlarge.
Edit: The Insider Advantage Poll just released has a minimal impact on the numbers. Romney 22.3%, Paul 21.9%, Santorum 17.2%, Gingrich 15.1%
A new Public Policy poll has Ron Paul at 20 percent, Mitt Romney at 19 percent, and Rick Santorum at 18 percent.
Santorum continues to make waves in Iowa, perhaps peaking as the latest ABR at what is seen by some conservatives as a critical time.
Here is a portion of PPP’s analysis:
The momentum in the race is completely on Santorum’s side. He’s moved up 8 points since a PPP poll earlier in the week, while no one else has seen more than a one point gain in their support. Among voters who say they decided who to vote for in the last seven days he leads Romney 29-17 with Paul and Gingrich both at 13. Santorum’s net favorability of 60/30 makes him easily the most popular candidate in the field. No one else’s favorability exceeds 52%. He may also have more room to grow in the final 48 hours of the campaign than the other front runners: 14% of voters say he’s their second choice to 11% for Romney and only 8% for Paul.
Other than Santorum’s rise the other big story of this week is Paul’s fall. He was at 24% earlier in the week but has dropped to 20%. That decline in support coincides with a precipitous drop in his favorability numbers. On our last poll he was at +13 (53/40), but that’s gone down 21 points on the margin to -8 (43/51). For all that Paul still has a very decent chance at winning on Tuesday- it just depends on whether his unusual coalition of young voters and non-Republicans really comes out to caucus. Mitt Romney leads with the more traditional caucus demographics of senior citizens and registered Republicans.