Note: Click graphic to enlarge.

Newt Gingrich has suddenly taken a commanding lead which will only be buoyed by recent reports that Herman Cain will indeed endorse the former Speaker today.

Meanwhile, Mitt Romney sees his first appreciable drop. The data suggests that for the first time some of his base may be defecting to another candidate, presumably Gingrich.

Cain remains in the data set, as it’s based on actual polls and it cannot be said with certainty who his voters would have selected had they not had him as a choice. Though expect his plummet to be complete within the next two weeks as new polls are released.

For any of the rest of the field to have a chance at this point, one of them must have a very strong showing or two in an early state to gain new momentum. Otherwise, this is without a doubt the two horse race Political Derby has been calling for the past several weeks.