Apparently Tim Pawlenty has had quite enough of the beating Michelle Bachmann put on him in the debate and the straw poll. T-Paw announced today that he is the first candidate of any significance to quit the race.

Two questions remain. Who will be next to quit and who should be next to quit?

Comments

  • Brian H
    • Promise Kept

      Interesting article also. Says Paul is much more than a canary in a coal mine. Who knew, so true, boo-hoo? http://news.yahoo.com/once-fringe-candidate-paul-shaping-2012-race-205132862.html

      • Brian H

        Glad you found it interesting, Promise.

        • Promise Kept

          Just offering a perspective outside of the, “cult figure”, casting your article tried to place on Ron Paul, buddy.
          It’s really interesting to watch how media pundits, left and right, mostly agree that he is no one and nothing, and never was, or is representing anything worth believing; and everyone who is anyone would never want to be seen supporting him.

          Methinks they do protest too much, but I’m glad they are trying as hard as they can, because it’s sure to help get him noticed by good folks who wonder why they are struggling so hard to avoid him.

          • Road Runner

            It’s really interesting that Ron Paul was mentioned more in the comments than Pawlenty and Bachmann combined in an article about Pawlenty and Bachman.

            Do a name count in the articles with comments over ten.

  • Brian H

    You are right. It is unfair to call Paul not a Republican if he refers to himself as a Republican. I hate the term RINO and try not to use it.

    What is the GOP Platform?
    http://www.gop.com/2008Platform/2008platform.pdf

    Yes. It is a solid platform and I think it is what the country needs.

  • HB

    I’ve been away for a while but did I miss something? Brian where is Paul in your list of potentials. Your man T-Paw got blown up, Paul probably won the straw poll (shucking and jiving of numbers), and you omit his name and insert Rick (Steve) Perry, are you serious? You can’t take it Ron is a serious threat to all these look and sound alikes. Insert Perry for Ronmey or Newt or Obama or whom ever. Time to wake up and smell the tea baby cause it’s a brewin. Put your pride, personal opinions aside and take a look at what the candidates are saying and then look where we are. We need a new platform. Pro America not pro GOP

    • Brian H

      HB. Try reading my pervious postings, please. I clearly have stated several times why I think Paul has the total amount of support he will ever have. Every time Paul speaks he does not gain Republican support, he loses it. He has a loud and committed block of groupies who follow his world tour around like “Dead Heads” on a Grateful Dead tour but that is it. Paul’s 2nd place showing in Ames does nothing more than intensify his groupies and encourage them to become even more annoying and unserious.

      I know you and others disagree with my assessment and nothing I say or you say is going to change anyones opinions. Time will tell, and like always, actual votes, or lack of, will be the only thing that will demonstrate to his groupies the reality that he will never be POTUS. At that point they can return to their conspiracy theories trying to explain how the “media” and the “Republican establishment” kept Paul from victory. That is always engaging reading.

      • Promise Kept

        Brian, buddy, I’ve given you ample time to rant before tying in with you here, as I know you are licking your wounds over T-Paw. Here’s a CNN news panel analysis this morning, that made me think of you: http://youtu.be/5vRuy0m7IjA

        Hope it cheers you up some ;)

        • Brian H

          Not sure what the video proves, Promise. Look. The media may be hacks but they are not fools. They understand the level of Paul’s support, where it comes from, and what it means. I know Paul supporters would LOVE it if everyone were so willing to play along and pretend that Paul is anything more than a fringe candidate, but, the fact is, he is not. It is that simple.

          The media have all seen the Ron Paul straw polls before. There is nothing new in the Ron Paul story. If fact, what we may see from the liberal media is a growing effort to link the GOP to the nuttiness of Ron Paul.

          • Brian H

            ps…no need to lick wounds over Pawlenty. I thought he was a solid candidate,that is it, he is not my dad or anything.

            I think Paw did the right thing for all the right reasons. He, too, could continue to play games with his supporters eating up airtime and begging them for money. But, he has chosen an honorable withdraw from the race. That is what serious candidates do. Serious candidates don’t use the bully pulpit of a Presidential campaign to promote themselves, their books, or etc.

          • Promise Kept

            I wasn’t trying to “prove” anything to you, Brian. I just thought you might appreciate seeing someone in media, on camera, who admittedly was no friend of Paul’s; and yet found enough moral outrage at the kind of dismissal he was receiving from media at every level for what was a virtual tie with Bachmann, that he couldn’t help but call attention to this gross oversight of his media peers.
            What Stephanie Miller said reminded me of many of your comments, and since she seemed confident that her ideals were winning, paraded them out much as I thought you might.

            • Brian H

              Good call.

      • Rochelle

        Brian, I keep finding myself agreeing with your logic. I’m getting very nervous. You are right, I think, about Paul. Honestly, when he was speaking about Iran during the debate Thursday, I nearly choked. That alone would keep me from pulling the lever.

        • Brian H

          Thanks Rochelle. I wish more of us who are grounded in reality would speak out and stop pretending that Paul is anything more than a showman.

          In fact. Rob likes to refer to me as an internet “troll”. He is probably right about that. Yet, Ron Paul is nothing more than a political troll. Using the Presidential platform for his own self promotion. Paul knows that he will never be POTUS but he does not care. He is willing to keep asking for money from his flock even though he knows it is all for nothing. At least, thus far, Palin’s never ending desire for self promotion relevance has not become part of this Presidential race. I only wish Paul had the same level of self control.

          • Red State Eddie

            You are not a troll, Brian. A KOOK, yes. But a troll, no. ;-)

            • Brian H

              I’ll buy that for a $1.00

        • Brian H

          No reason to get nervous about Ron Paul. It is simply irrelevant to the process, and, as you can see, the media simply tries to talk around him as they too know he is a non factor. I probably spend way to much time trying to engage with the groupies, but, I can’t help but hope that maybe at least one of them will recognize how absurd this guy is.

          • Promise Kept

            I so agree, Brian, there is “no reason to get nervous about Ron Paul”, but if you keep working at it, you just might come up with the right,(no pun intended), formula.

            Call me hopeless if you must, but I’m about to pour me some “Extreme Tea”!

            http://www.youtube.com/user/southernavenger#p/u/2/X1TXEnGBfi0

          • Rochelle

            Not nervous about Ron Paul- nervous that I keep agreeing with you. ;) Just a joke.

            • Brian H

              Now that is something to worry about. Seek emergency care immediately!

            • Promise Kept

              Every good joke has a measure of truth to it. Your kind words are appreciated; however nervously you choose to diminish their worth. :)

    • Brian H

      Thanks HB for wanting to rewrite the GOP platform. In fact, I strongly encourage Ron Paul to take his groupies with him and start a new political party. Pllleeaasse…… At least then they can stop pretending to be Republicans and will only serve to embarrass themselves and not the party of Lincoln.

      • HB

        Answer these questions please Brian:
        what is a Republican?
        What is the GOP platform?
        And is the GOP platform what this country needs?

  • Troy La Mana

    I thought it was a bit too early for T-Paw to drop out. Gingrich, Huntsman and MCotter should have dropped out already but I thought Pawlenty should have stuck it out until New Hampshire as I think Paul and Cain will do. I know Romney will be carried by Establishment Republicans and the MSN for various reasons.

    • obelisk

      Are you certain you don’t think Romney should have dropped out before anybody else?

      • Troy La Mana

        I said he would be carried, not that I don’t think he should drop out.

        Here’s a thought though:

        – Pawlenty spent about 1 Million on this poll and came in third.

        – Bachmann also spent big bucks and brought in 30 buses and won.

        – Cain brought only 4 buses, spend ZERO dollars on TV or Radio, has only a 46% name recognition and pulled out a 5th place finish. Cain didn’t spend money he didn’t have and therefore didn’t torpedo his own campaign like Pawlenty.

        Cain is gaining ground and winning votes on message, not money.

        • Brian H

          Troy. It is Iowa. The strong showing for some in Iowa does not prove a groundswell of support.

    • Brian H

      The MSM is VERY liberal and as such would never want their guy Obama to face Mitt. They would much prefer Bachmann or Perry as a potential adversary.

      • Troy La Mana

        I’ll answer both posts in the same response.

        Yes, this is Iowa, and it shows a groundswell of support IN Iowa. The question will be if it translates to votes in the Caucus.

        I believe the MSM would love Romney because it removes the largest and easiest target for the Republican nominee from the discussion. Every time Romney points out how he would revoke ObamaCare, Obama would point out RomneyCare, and Romney’s credibility would continue to drop.

  • Rusty Shackleford

    I’m still struggling. I don’t have a “dog in this hunt”. If the Texas primary were tomorrow I guess I’d vote for……

  • Red State Eddie

    T-Paw will make a good panelist on Morning Joe now that his presidential aspirations are done.

  • Todd B

    Scott – how does Perry get over his past as being the Al Gore Texas campaign manager and the democratic party? I also question ANY non-executive nominee that can hide their voting history and true ideology behind either 99 or 434 other votes.

    • http://scottslant.blogspot.com/ Scott A. Robinson

      This is one of the reasons I’m shocked by his immediate popularity. Perry has run in Texas as a conservative but governed as a moderate, at best. He is by no means the “conservative” people make him out to be.

      Much of the push for him comes from the evangelical faction of the Republican Party who hates Romney and is not satisfied with Bachmann.

  • David Kaiser, Editor

    Agreed Scott, its possible, but I find it very unlikely.

  • Brian H

    Just watching Bachmann on Meet the dePressed. She is no Palin, that is for sure. She is conservative, smart, and articulate and does not like a dear in headlights. They will try to paint her as “EXTREME” but they will not be able to paint her as “stupid”.

    • Brian H

      deer…not dear

    • Troy La Mana

      Actually, I thought she had the deer in the headlights look during the debate. The more I watched the more I realized that is her normal look.

  • Steve Feinstein

    Santorum has raised his VP cred with his debate performance. He has the same social issues stances as Bachmann and proven Gov’t/DC experience, but has none of her perceived stridency and is not an MSM magnet like she is.

    • Brian H

      There are too many good VP’s and rising rock stars in the paddock to give Santorum the nod….I believe.

      Christie
      Pence
      Rubio
      Ryan
      West
      Thune
      Pawlenty

      …just to name a few.

    • David Kaiser, Editor

      I think a potential VP candidate has to do more than be a good candidate on paper, they have to fill the gaps where the Presidential nominee comes up a little short.

      If your nominee is Mitt Romney, I think Santorum makes a great choice given Romney’s inconsistancies on social issues in the past.

      If your nominee is Michele Bachmann, I think you have to consider nominating someone a little more seasoned. Mitch Daniels and Haley Barbour are two names that come to mind. Jim DeMint, who is on the foreign relations committee also fits here.

      If its Perry, I think you need someone the midwest or from a purple state, which Pawlenty and Santorum fit. Daniels and Chris Christie are also a fit here.

  • David Kaiser, Editor

    Sorry B, I disagree on Newt. Not sure he has the legs left to make a race of it. He does have name recognition, unlike the rest of the lower tier candidates, but his campaign woes show no sign of getting fixed quickly or easily.

    If he can’t get his house in order, all of the top talent and deepest pockets will have placed their bets elsewhere, and he won’t have the resources to mount a credible campaign.

    • http://scottslant.blogspot.com/ Scott A. Robinson

      I think it is certainly possible that Newt’s defectors to the Pawlenty camp come back and his debate performance will give him life for awhile. If anyone can bring their campaign out of the ditch, it might be him. Though it doubt it will happen.

    • Brian H

      I agree with you more on Newt than disagree. The ONLY reason I even dropped his name in the remaining legit field is because of name recognition and because of his really strong performance Thursday night.You are so right about not having the legs, or $$$$, to take this much further.

      I could agree on a three horse filed.

      Kaiser. With that said. Of the three legit remaining horses Romney, Bachmann, and Perry who do you think is strongest and who of the three could you see yourself casting a vote for and who of the three could you NEVER cast a vote for?

      • David Kaiser, Editor

        I honestly don’t have a candidate I have decided to vote for. That said, even if I did, I would not write about it until the nominee is decided.

        I didn’t do it in 2008, and I won’t do it now.

        • Brian H

          Understood. Without dropping names. Are there any of the top three you could vote for and is there anyone you could not? without naming them

          • David Kaiser, Editor

            There is one of the top three I would have a difficult time pulling the trigger for. I believe all three have flaws, but one stands out as having the lowest chance of success in a general election.

            • Brian H

              I am sure Mr. Romney will be disappointed in hearing that…..

              • http://scottslant.blogspot.com/ Scott A. Robinson

                Apparently you forget which way Kaiser leans (or doesn’t lean)….

              • Brian H

                ……..I was being a bit tongue and cheek.

          • Red State Eddie

            I can see this shaping up nicely as a referendum on President BHO coming from 3 people who could say quite a bit about him and have an alternative. That’s going to be part of my decision – who can articulate the pain of his discredited policies while giving us a better plan.

  • David Kaiser, Editor

    This is obviously a big boost for both Bachmann and Paul for different reasons.

    Ames is partially a test of organization, and as a member of the House, Bachmann has never mounted a large-scale campaign, not even at the state level. Her victory at Ames gives some evidence of her abliity to organize a campaign, which is an important thing to show to potential donors.

    For Paul, the tight second place finish gives him more crediblity and gives some proof that he compete. Ames hasn’t always predicted the winner in Iowa, but it has produced a pretty solid assessment of a candidates chance to be competitive in the caucus.

    Ron Paul needs a top three finish with 17-22% to remain a viable candidate after the Iowa Caucses. His performance in Ames gives him reason to think he can, but, more importantly, it gives the voters in Iowa a reason to think he can as well, which may well drawn voters to him that once considered him a fringe candidate.

    As far as the rest of the results, there aren’t a ton of major revelations.

    The next biggest story is the end of T-Paw, which after the results of Ames doesn’t come as a shock to many.

    Sarah Palin and Rick Perry both made efforts as write-in candidates, but only Perry made a splash in that department, managing 700-some-odd votes.

    Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman weren’t there and it showed in their voting results, but that is not a huge surprise.

    I think that Gingrich, Huntsman, Cain and McCotter obviously should go. None of them stand a realistic chance to win and none of them, save Gingrich, have the name recognition to stick it out a la McCain in 2008.

    Santorum surprised me a little with a fourth place finish. Please don’t confuse my surprise as thinking his has a chance, but I think he bought himself enough time to perhaps see Iowa for real.

    I don’t know what any of them drop out. I think you’ll see the top four candidates – Romney, Bachmann, Perry and Paul work to fundraise and organize, while the next tier all trim their spending sails and cherry pick an issue to keep them alive for the real show in the winter.

    • http://scottslant.blogspot.com/ Scott A. Robinson

      Kaiser,

      I had hoped you’d take the Santorum bait on my last post :-)

      • David Kaiser, Editor

        Just got back from vacation, so I’m a little behind. Plus I’m out of unibrow jokes…

        • http://scottslant.blogspot.com/ Scott A. Robinson

          That’s no excuse. I’m in India!

    • Brian H

      Good analysis, but I do disagree about Paul.

      I would say for a traditional candidate your analysis would be dead on. But, Paul is not a traditional candidate. This is the same man who came in second in 2008 in the same straw poll. Paul’s support is solidified. Those who would consider ever voting for Paul already do. Those who would likely never vote for Paul have already tied their wagons elsewhere. Maybe I am just speaking for myself on this one but there is zero chance I could ever pull a lever for Ron Paul. I think Obama is a bad President but I think Paul would be a dangerous one. And that is Paul’s problem. Most GOP voters think the man is a whack job. Yes, we like some of his stances on domestic policy. but not enough to hand him the keys. You are right. His showing Ames would give his supporters a rally cry and hope… if they were lacking that in the first place.

      I agree with you 100% about Bachmann and Perry and about those who should stop muddying up the field on lost campaigns.

      • David Kaiser, Editor

        I understand your point of view on RP Brian, but you, like many on PD, are on the higher end of political involvement and know far more than your average voter. For those less well read voters, its about positions on major issues and perception. Coming a close second in Ames helps with the perception issue. Paul’s stances on many major economic issues – cut spending, cut taxes, etc. – resonates with the conservatives in Iowa.

        I think you underestimate his chances to attract voters of average interest in politics and issue knowledge.

        • Promise Kept

          Well, David, I might not be, “like many on PD, (who) are on the higher end of political involvement and know far more than your average voter”, but I did kinda’ nail the Straw Poll results two and a half weeks before the event.

          Are you REALLY going to say Paul has no chance in their caucuses?

          • David Kaiser, Editor

            Wow, you really like playing fast and lose with the facts don’t you?

            This is what you posted when we had our last go around:

            “According to the Iowan political commentator, Kathie Obradovich, on Ron Paul; “He doesn’t have to win the caucuses, but he needs to beat expectations by cracking into the top three. He needs strong college-student turnout and must bring newcomers into the caucus process.”

            David’s expectations sounds like none of us should expect that Paul will prevail, and I’m putting my prediction down for Dr. Paul as a sure second, or even a less than surprising FIRST place.”

            Based on that, you were predicting that Ron Paul would win the Iowa caucus. That is what I disagreed with you, and still will disagree with you about. If you meant the Ames Straw poll, I’ll give you a chance to correct yourself, but nothing in that post said anything about the Straw Poll, including the quote you were basing your argument on.

            Nor did the Iowa pundit you quoted say they thought that Ron Paul would win Iowa. They merely said what I said in a post today – he needs to be in the top three to remain competitive for the nomination.

            The point of my comment above was to say after Ames, he is better positioned to do just that.

            So let’s review your post: A) you didn’t “nail” the Ames poll result, you made a prediction that he would win the Iowa Caucus, and B) I said in the very post you responded to above that doing well in Ames helps him with his chances to be competitive in Iowa.

            • Promise Kept

              Hold onto your “wow” for now, David, while I try to clarify what you call, “fast and loose”. The thread was titled, “Ames Ballot set; Palin and Perry not on”. The quote I posted was specific as to what Paul would have to do to be valid in the caucuses, but that would be a moot point if he didn’t do as well as I predicted in the straw poll, right? I live in a caucus state and was a coin-toss tie loser to go to the state level, but participated up to the county level here, so I understand the process first hand.
              I later replied to you in my last post on that thread,”Bachmann and Cain’s similarities to Paul “on some major issues”, are superficial at best, and may confuse some newbie tea-party folks, but that’s where advertizing and phone efforts, as well as C4L and YAL’s grass root efforts have helped clarify where they clearly differ.
              So far, Paul supporter’s efforts at the two major conservative events held recently, showed much greater impact than others there, so why should we expect that better organization in Iowa now from Cain’s crew or Bachmann’s bombers will somehow capture a sizable percent of the vote that would otherwise be Paul’s?”

      • Troy La Mana

        I’ll throw the standard line right back at you Brian. If Paul was the Republican nominine for 2012 you wouldn’t vote for him?

        • Brian H

          Not a chance in the world!! Not only would I not cast a vote for the lunatic I would donate money and walk the streets for Obama.

          Now. Lucky for me I live in a world called reality, whereas the choice to vote for Paul will never have to be made. Lucky for me Ron Paul is not a Republican and those who are Republicans know it. When we talk about RINOs there is no greater example than Ron Paul. In fact, his self identification to the GOP is an embarrassment to the party.

          • Troy La Mana

            But you demanded that I pull the lever for McCain in ’08 when I said I would vote for Paul. How is that not hypocritical? Shouldn’t you vote for the Republican nominee no matter what?

            • Brian H

              No. I suggested you vote for McCain because either McCain or Obama were going to be President and I believe McCain was the better option.

              If the choice is between Ron Paul or Obama, Ron Paul is clearly the candidate who would do more harm to the United States. Therefor, I would work diligently to make sure that the candidate with the most sanity is elected.

              Again. The point is moot because Ron Paul will never win the Republican nomination.

              • Troy La Mana

                No, you said a vote for Paul would put Obama in office and any Republican was better then any Democrat.

    • http://deleted JoeW

      Dave that was a fair analysis. What happen if Palin in her unconventional style jumps in?

      • David Kaiser, Editor

        I think a Palin candidacy hurts Michele Bachmann the most, and to a lesser extent Paul and Perry.

        Palin helps Romney more than anyone else, because she further sub-divides the Tea Party vote, giving Romney a clearer path to the nomination.

        At this point, I honestly do not see Sarah Palin as a candidate capable of winning the nomination. I think she’s waited too long and she is too polarizing. She would create a lot of excitement and would not be a second tier candidate, but I think Michele Bachmann has assumed her role and position in the race.

        A Sarah Palin candidacy would become much like Mike Huckabee’s in 2008, with Romney in the McCain role and a combination of Bachmann and Paul in the Romney role. She would siphon off votes and give Romney a clear run to the nomination.

        But that’s just my take.

      • Red State Eddie

        At this point, Palin wouldn’t stand out in a unique niche.
        Woman? Bachmann.
        Social conservative? Perry & Bachmann.
        Ex-Guv? Romney & Perry.

        Palin would only muddy the waters, not help bring clarity to the contest. Frankly, Bachmann is a better ‘Palin’ than Sarah – more experience, greater gravitas, ran a business, etc. She can articulate better with more substantial answers than Palin. I was a fan of Palin in 2008 because she brought a different dimension than the McCain angle (tired, old, boring beltway man he is) – but the moment has passed.

  • Brian H

    Pawlenty has spit the bit and is pulling up at the 1/4 pole.

    As I said in a post the other day, whenT-Paw realistically concludes that his campaign is done he will step aside and do the right thing by clearing the field for others, not eating up their airtime and begging for money from his supporters on a lost cause. T-Paw has done the classy and appropriate thing. It is disturbing that there are not others in the field who have the integrity and good sense to do the same. No. Too many other horses will keep seeking donations and keep eating up air time in debates because their own egos and their addiction to chanting crowds (regardless of the size) has clouded their judgement.

    This is now a 3-4 horse field.

    Romney
    Bachmann
    Perry
    Newt

    Bachmann have the toughest general election campaign and I believe that should be considered when choosing a horse. All in all, I think Romney is steadily widening the links between him and the rest of the filed.