I told someone on the phone the other day that I thought Obama was still the favorite to win in 2012. He gasped and nearly hung up on me.

Obama can lose, certainly, but the idea that the GOP can throw a three-legged pony up against him and win is ridiculous. Obama and his team have already proven themselves better at campaigning than governing.

Matthew Dowd makes the case in the NationalJournal that it will take the combination of three factors for Obama to lose.

I couldn’t agree more.