Please welcome Stephen Meehan to the pond. Play nice with the new guy!

The Oval from USA Today is reporting that Obama “is on a political roll.” Jackson cites Obama’s rising approval ratings and a new McLatchy-Marist survey that says Obama is crushing any and all potential GOP candidates, particularly Sarah Palin. I’m not as shocked by this as I am by the fact that everyone up till now had been basically counting Obama out of the race.

It seems like everyone I talk to about 2012 just assumes that the Republican primary is the real race and Obama will roll over and play dead. According to , 54% of Americans think he’ll lose (it’s question 10). Has everyone forgotten just how unpopular George Bush was in the lead-up to the 2004 election? His approval ratings were well below 50% by election time and were in the process of a total downward spiral (if you look, he was at close to 75% at this point in that election cycle). Things change fast in this country, especially the minds of voters and don’t forget, despite the recent “throw ‘em out!” success of the Tea Party, incumbents maintain a huge advantage, particularly in Presidential elections.

I, for one, think Obama has his second term all but wrapped up. Do you think the GOP stands a chance?

Comments

  • boru

    Last time i checked, obama still was not white.

    That was a major reason he won.

    And liberal neocons don’t dare talk about obama breaking promises on the war, on spending, on taxes, etc.

    Just like lasr time, real conservatives will not support liberal neocons. It does not matter how much they read the Constitution, there is just too much discussion of records by the people. We won’t be fooled again.

    Meanwhile, Obama still has a real base…and it will grow next year as the economy further recovers. Plus, racial issues will be manufactured from Black history month (starting next week) until Election day. And neocons like Boehner and Newt will fan those flames (Boehner is just creepy as hell). Even Cain will help obama via simple uncle tom rhetoric.

    Sadly, most blacks (and most non-whites) are actually quite Conservative.

    Bur the bigger problem is that both parties were taken over and, like pro wrestlers, only pretend to argue. Behind the scenes they vote the same without even reading the legislation over 90% of the time. They are told what to rubber stamp by some oligarchy. That’s taxation without representation…justification for revolutuons in the past.

    Btw: texting this…sorry fot typos and grammar

  • Brian H

    Obama is the incumbent and as such has a morning line advantage. It would be foolish to suggest Obama can’t win in 2012.

    Clearly Americans like divided government and if Obama’s numbers have improved since the mids it is because the American people recognize that brakes have been put on the Obama train that was so recklessly speeding down the track out of control.

    Now that the GOP has a legitimate “check and balance” over this administration he is likely viewed as being less of a threat.

    All Americans should want good government that works and does not overstep its constitutional authority. Now that GOP has voice and a vote we have a better government, Obama will benefit from that reality.

    • David Kaiser, Editor

      Brian, that has to be one of the best comments I’ve ever seen from you.

      New meds?

      ;)

      • Brian H

        HaHaHa! LOL

        Guess my blood pressure mere are working.

        Thanks, D.

        • Brian H

          “mere”

          Apparently my meds have had no effect on my typing skills.

          • Brian H

            “meds”!!!

            Dang I phone spell correction always messes me up!

  • dw

    Awwww… the NFL Jersey spammer got the boot. And, I was so looking forward to an NFL analogy in the political discussions. You know, like maybe a prediction that Obama gets sacked in 2012, or the GOP tells Palin to go long, and keep on running…

    Thanks, editors, for keeping the site spam free!!!

  • Stephen Meehan

    Thanks for the Words of Welcome …
    But I have another issue with the Jimmy Carter comparison: The Iran-Hostage Crisis. Part of what helped Reagan win (aside from being a Rock-Star candidate) was his perceived toughness on this issue. As Steve Feinstein points out, this is probably Obama’s biggest weakness — but without an event of this caliber, I don’t see the GOP rising up.
    In fact, if it becomes too apparent, the GOP may throw a weak candidate out in ’12 to save face for ’16 when they’ll have a fighting shot.

  • http://twitter.com/theatomicmom East of Eden

    The only way Obama loses is if, the GOP can front some one with Rock Star quality. So far they don’t have that. So welcome back Mr President. I’m hoping the Senate will turn GOP and that nothing will get done after 2012.

    Welcome too :)

    • David Kaiser, Editor

      Awesome. Let’s shut down the county for four years because we don’t like the guy in the White House.

      While we’re at it, lets not flush the toilet because we don’t the guy running the water company or let’s not send our kids to school because we don’t like the principal.

      Republicans have shown they can and will stand up to Obama, now the people will want more. They will want the Republicans to show they can lead and govern. Holding the political equivalent of a 60s sit-in won’t solve our problems, it will lead to exacerbating the ones we already have.

      Sitting on your hands is a short term solution that worked in the 2010 cycle because the economy was down and people were fed up. Taking that approach leading up to and following 2012 will blow up in the GOP’s faces.

      • http://twitter.com/theatomicmom East of Eden

        David…you sound so angry. Please don’t be.

        Yes, the GOP is good at sitting on their hands. I dont know if that new kid (kid, what he’s the same age as me!) that is running the RNC is going to fight. If he wants to fight, then go, I support that fight and will get into the middle. However, I just am hesitant to really believe that is really going to happen.

        I say nothing is going to get done though, because Obama will veto anything that is not absolutly looney-liberal, and the GOP is not going to let the liberal agenda go forward. (Cue democrat complaining choirs, “It’s not fair! Waaah!”)

        And let’s be honest, even if the GOP grows a pair, they are still not going to tackel immigration, energy, entitlement reform and debt reform in any sort of meaningful way. Because no one ever tackels these issues.

        • David Kaiser, Editor

          Not angry EoE, just frustrated with the GOP’s past gameplan of “just say no.”

          Let’s try for, “let’s do it a better way.”

          And if you work to pass good legislation and Obama does veto, well now you’ve turned the tables on the Democrats and they become the party of obstruction and people will see that.

          • http://twitter.com/theatomicmom East of Eden

            I think they have had some good ideas. But I also think those good ideas have been lost in the lameness of Michael Steel and the media not wanting to do anything but make out with Obama.

            This week, they’re introducing legislation that will allow medical insurance to be purchased across state lines. I think that’s a step in the right direction.

            However, when you have Obama and his crowd proposing all the junk they’ve proposed and passed, we have to say no, and then HELL-O no. As the mother of a 2 year old, I get the whole say no arguement all too well.

          • Troy La Mana

            It’s Just Say NO, here’s a better way.

  • Gary Russell

    Two words:

    Jimmy Carter

    Welcome, Stephen!

    • David Kaiser, Editor

      Gary, the only problem with your comparison is that it took someone like Ronald Reagan to beat Jimmy Carter.

      Do you see a Ronald Reagan out there?

      I sure as heck don’t.

      • Gary Russell

        I don’t see Ronald II out there either.
        Wish I did!

        But, I don’t think it’ll take that.
        As the last two years of elections have shown, it doesn’t require a Reagan.
        Sometimes a “Brown” or a “Rubio” will suffice.
        Yes, I know that there were some “Angles” and “O’Donnells”,too. That just shows that we’ve got to have an electable person.
        I have faith that our “Rubio” will rise up.

        • David Kaiser, Editor

          There is a huge difference between beating an incumbent senator as opposed to knocking off a sitting President.

          It’s only happened twice since 1932, George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter. Carter inherited a bad situation with the economy and did nothing to help fix it. He also was paralyzed by the Iran Hostage Crisis, as Stephen Meehan noted.

          Bush feel victim to two issues in my opinion: I think the American voters had grown weary of a Republican in the White House, and one of the most effective “gotcha” sound bytes in Presidential politics in Bush 41s’ infamous “read my lips, no new taxes.”

          No, I have to agree with Meehan in the analysis that Obama is in a similar position as W was in 2003, and barring anything like what happened to Carter or Bush 41, it would take the second coming of Ronald Reagan to beat him.

          • Gary Russell

            I just have a hunch that the whole “Tea Party” atmosphere of the past election will carry over into 2012.

            A growing number of voters (including moderate Democrats) aren’t looking for “rock stars” (like Obama). They’re looking for results.

            I don’t think we have to have a “rock star”.
            We just need a really good studio musician with no baggage.

  • Steve Feinstein

    22 months is an eternity in politics. It’s much too early for meaningful speculation.

    The race will likely turn on a few factors, some of which are under the control of the candidates and some of which aren’t:

    1. The economy. If the economy is solidly, demonstrably, reassuringly moving in the right direction, then that augers well for Obama’s re-election. Unemployment down in the low-mid 8’s by summer of ’12, consistent 200k +/mo. job creation, gasoline pricing stable at not over $3.25-ish/gal, these all work in Obama’s favor. Yes, his policies are not necessarily the root cause of these good developments, but he’ll accrue their benefits, like any sitting President would, of any party.

    2. The presence or absence of a major national security event. Obama is perceived as weak in this area, so the absence of a bad event works in his favor, as it won’t remind voters of one of his weaker aspects.

    3. Overplayed/bungled issues by the Republican House. If they try to go a “bridge too far” and blow it, the Dems will have a field day, aided by their allies in the liberal media. The Republicans have to be on their best media game, explaining everything in clear, unequivocal terms to the American public why what they’re proposing is to the electorates’ benefit, and why Democratic opposition is to the electorates’ detriment. Effective media relations have long been a Republican weakness; that must change.

    4. Emergence of a likeable, recognizable, credible Republican candidate. In other words, NOT Sarah Palin, who is too polarizing and presents too many easy targets for liberal media attack. Same with Newt Gingrich. We’re not talking qualifications here, we’re talking about being easily attackable, and then having to waste time/effort fending off those attacks, whether true or not.

    • Troy La Mana

      I agree with you on all points but a candidate may be able to overcome the negitives. Not an easy road, as you have pointed out.

  • Troy La Mana

    The Leftist papers have to prop up Obama any way they can. When the economy is as bad, if not worse, after November, you can bet those poll numbers will drop. When people see that Democrat refuse to give up on ObamaCare when the majority of Americans didn’t want it to begin with the poll numbers will drop. Obama will probably win the nomination even if he is challenged by Hillary but that doesn’t mean he will win another term.