Well known Democratic consultant Bob Shrum is out with a zinger: The Democrats will hold the House and the Senate. Is he smoking the DC happy pipe or does he know something we don’t know?

With the onset of autumn, there are signs that the Republican tide is receding. Karl Rove would understand – the same dynamic was the key to George W. Bush’s narrow re-election in 2004, when the GOP base showed up to vote in numbers that defied the polling models. This time, it’s the Democratic base that’s stirring—and finally engaging—and the survey research is registering the shift. In the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, the Republican advantage in the ballot for Congress has declined from nine points to three. The explanation: African-Americans and Hispanics are re-entering the likely electorate.

To bolster his case Shrum cites the declining stars of Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina and Rand Paul.

I am not suggesting the Senate is even a likely pickup or that Joe Biden’s seat is comfortably in the red column, but this might be a good time to remind Mr. Shrum that he has advised eight presidential candidates – none of whom ever went on to win their election. Maybe it’s something in the water.

Read the rest.

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