There’s an interesting article in the latest issue of the American Political Science Association’s journal, “PS.” The article shows that Obama would have been elected president in 2008 even if he hadn’t brought one new voter to the polls.

If Obama had received the exact same vote (in the same states) as John Kerry received in 2004 and, obviously, McCain receives his same 2008 vote, Obama still wins.

Obama would lose the popular vote, but win the Electoral College by winning Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico (every other state would stay the same). In other words, it was 2004 Bush voters, either by voting for Obama or staying home, that won the election for Obama. (Of course, all the new voters he brought in were icing on the cake.)