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Welcome to the inaugural edition of PoliticalDerby.com’s 2012 Power Rankings. We were the first to rank the horses for the ‘08 race, and now the first to rank the horses that will vie for the GOP nomination to challenge President-elect Obama. (Unless something truly scandalous happens, Obama will not face competition for the 2012 nomination.)
For now the rankings obviously won’t be updated very often. But make no mistake, the race for 2012 is underway.
Republican Horses
1. Sarah Palin – By default, Palin begins our rankings in the top spot. Unless post-election analysis can peg the loss on her (early indications are that she was a very slight net plus for McCain) Palin’s automatically the front runner in 2012. The key argument democrats (and some republicans) made against her was her “lack of experience”. That issue is off the table four years from now. If America can elect a man with two years in the Senate (at campaign launch), they can elect a six-year governor from Alaska. Palin has become a fundraising machine and will spend the next two years campaigning on behalf of candidates, shooting moose and democrats, and, one hopes, buying her own wardrobe. Her path to the top of the ticket in 2012 won’t be easy, but it’s realistic.
2. Mitt Romney – Most conservatives who fell off the Palin bandwagon at some point during the campaign found themselves longing for Romney and his business cred. That probably has less to do with the man himself and more to do with the economy taking over the election and Romney’s prowess on the issue. Regardless, he’s arguably more popular now with the party than he ever was during his own campaign. He’s done more events for McCain than any other nomination castoff and has raised buckets of cash for candidates up and down the ballot. Fair or not, can he put the flip flopper label behind him during the next three years? Can he stay in the public eye? Will he still have that enviable head of hair?
3. Mike Huckabee – A very close of friend of the former Arkansas governor tells us it’s a lock Huck runs again. Not only that, they believe very strongly that if Fred had dropped out earlier, they would have won the SC primary and been propelled to the nomination in 2008. So they feel it will be “their turn”. Huck has a platform, albeit a small one, on TV every week and his good name with Evangelicals isn’t going anywhere. If his “primary” problem in 2008 was money and name ID, shouldn’t he be considered a top-tier horse in 2012?
4. Mark Sanford – The Derby has liked Sanford as a national candidate for a long time. Rumors suggest that there were only four reasons he said no to the 2008 race: Marshall, Landon, Bolton, Blake. His four young sons. Will they still be too young in 2012 or will dad be more willing to kiss them goodbye and live on the trail? If so, he’s an instant front runner and would make a party eager to nominate a genuine conservative in 2012 simply giddy.
5. Bobby Jindal – The popular Jindal was a sexy pick as McCain’s veep in 2008, but never seemed to want it quite like Huck, Mitt or Pawlenty. That reluctance will serve him well in 2012. He already has amazing party name ID considering he’s governor of a smallish southern state and has never run a national campaign. So how much brighter will his star be two years from now when the ‘12 campaign begins in earnest? Or will age could be an issue? He’s just 37 now and at age 41 would be 6 years younger as a candidate than Obama was in 2008.
Other horses receiving votes: John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, Rudy Giuliani
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3 words: Are you serious? Are you Nuts????? :-p
I dont even have the energy to challenge your picks….. except I agree with them partially. Note Redstate that was really Pro Romney during the later stages of the primaries. You have them going for all the above.
Goodnight,
Nuts? Yes
Good, that is what we need in any good website.
You forgot Joe the plumber and Tito the builder
!!!!
Where’s Rudy?
Any chance Michael Steele will run?
Rudy receives a few votes at the bottom. But honestly, after the debacle of J-Mac, the party is not going to nominate a liberal. (or even a squishy repub)
Wanna bet?
No WAY they nominate a lib or mod again. No way. No steekin’ way.
Did I mention “no way”?
Jindal can get the job done if he decides to run.
Palin is done. I said it before, if McCain looses, she’s out. It was a fun act while it lasted and she shined next to McCain. But absent McCain to play off of, she has no momentum of her own. Cute won’t cut it in a primary. Neither will looking out her front door at Russia.
You’re basing that on 2008. If she goes on the trail to fundraise and campaign over the next 2-3 years, very different story. She lit me up not at all because she was cute, but because her social policies lined up with mine. Mac didn’t do it. As long as she gets a 2nd term as Guv, she’ll build up way more experience for the next run. As a woman, and a younger one at that, she definitely holds some chips to bring to the table.
I remember reading that Palin will be fighting statistics. Statistically, being on the losing ticket as VP, does nothing for your national career. Ask Edwards, Lieberman, Kemp, Quayle, Bentsen, Mondale, Ferarro, etc. The only time I can recall is FDR, who you can argue was a transformational leader. Palin is not that type of figure who can cross the party line.
That’s true historically (about VPs), but historically we don’t elect ultra-liberal dems with the thinnest resume in history.
Palin’s popularity won’t diminish with the party.
Palin is not doomed, and I dont have a horse in this race, they are all so close together in position.
Palin will go back to alaska and excell, she will continue to be in the spotlight for many a year. She will have the chance to gain experience and gain favours and supporters.
Palin’s popularity is already doomed. She excites the far right, but moderate and libertarian republicans can’t stand her. As you can see from the string of endorsements for Obama by moderate Republicans, a big factor in their decision was Sarah Palin. Her ultra conservative nature will divide not unite a lost party.
You are kidding right
You call those RINO’s that ran to
kiss Obamas ring moderates?
You are kidding right
They have the same creditability in the party as the media, which means damn little
A Newsweek poll was done recently showing Romney leading Huckabee and Palin for the GOP nomination by a substantial margin with Palin in third place, even among social conservatives. I don’t think Palin’s brand right now is very good outside the absolute core of the party. However, four years will do much to rehabilitate her, and I personally thought she was a horrible VP pick, but I will be more than willing to give her a second look in four years. She’s been a mighty fine governor, but I felt that her rise to the top was disastrously premature.
I am a moderate and I voted enthusiastically for Obama, but I LOOOOOOOOOOOOVE Bobby Jindal. If he is nominated, I would have a very very tough time deciding in 2012, unless Obama turns out to be a disaster of course. I admire Romney for his competence, but his opportunistic flip-flopping is a turnoff, and I love Huckabee as a person but was never able to take him seriously as a politician.
I’m confused – your title is “goldwater conservative” and you’re a self-professed moderate who voted for Obama? Would Barry be rolling over in his grave on that one?
The CC goldwater, on behalf of goldwater family, released a statement endorsing Obama, due to his integrity and courage. Obama emphasizes personal liberty. They can’t speak for Barry Goldwater, but they can do it better than us.
So, you’re a fan of the policies of the old, tired, confused Goldwater (before he died), and his family – not the actual candidate of ‘64?
That’s odd.
That’d be about like me being a “Reagan conservative” – not the 1980 Reagan, but the Reagan just before he died. And justifying my vote for a democrat because of a Ron Jr. endorsement.
I am a fan of the Glodwater in terms of his integrity and his committment to personal freedom. He saw the Republican Party being take over by the religious right and he fought against that. Whether it was because he was tire and old, or tired of the religious right, he stood up for what he believed even knowing what he meant to the Republican Party.
So, Obama is for personal freedom but not financial freedom? Hmmmmm.
A GoldawterConservative who vites for an ObamaLiberal.
KNEEL before Zod!
He is for financial freedom, he just wants some common sense regulation.
He’s giving financial freedom? Is that why he’s going to punish those that work hard for a living and create jobs for others?
And integrity? Really? I’m so disgusted right now.
Alaina. Do you think J even understands what Obama and liberalism stands for?
I was saying why CC Goldwater endorsed him. Now I could explain to Alaina how he is increasing jobs and revenues, but I think right now that is futile. The small businesses is a lot more of volatile than both parties lead you to believe. Secondly they don’t make as much money as you are led to believe. A few percentage of small businesses make more than $250,000. Thirdly, I know what liberalism stands for and Obama stands for. Liberalism stands for equal opportunity for everyone, even it means higher taxes. Obama stands for being united as one country, not conservative or liberals, red or blue, but one country.
Are you kidding me?
Do you know how Obama came up with his stat that 98% of small businesses don’t make over 250K? He counts grandmas that sell trinkets on EBay part time the same as he does a homebuilder employing 100 people. So yeah, if you include all those people that don’t really own a business, then yes, very few will be impacted by his tax plan… just the ones that actually create jobs.
I know a lot of people who own small businesses and I have a pretty good idea how much they make and how much higher taxes will impact them.
Not only is Obama planning to raise the income tax on this brack by 4.6%, but he’s planning to increase their social security tax from 2.9% to 13.5%. That means that small businesses will pay up to 54.9% in taxes!!! Think about that… 54.9%. That’s a 17% raise. That will crush a lot of small businesses. Maybe you should take an economics class.
Obama and Liberalism means giving handouts. The difference between Conservatives and Liberals is that Conseratives have their hand up, whereas liberals have their hand out. Name one country where giving handouts to people has made it’s economy stronger. You can’t, because there aren’t any.
I know most your numbers are way off. And giving “handouts” is traditional fiscal policy. Rebates and such are designed to fight economic recession. Increase spending in infrastructure and lower taxes. That’s expansionary fiscal policies. not to mention they aren’t goodies. you have to work to get a tax cut.
Seriously, you blow my mind sometimes.
Why are my numbers wrong? What’s your source? Oh, yeah… I guess becuase it wasn’t on fightthesmears.com. If you don’t believe me, why don’t you check some non-partisan tax reform websites and see what they say about it? Americans for Tax Reform is a great one. Why not check the IRS website and do a little research on your own?
That’s what ticks me off about this election more than anything… Obama gave misleading statistics to support his policies and people like you refuse to believe anything other than what comes straight from his mouth. WAKE UP!!! His “facts” were total BS is you actually looked into them.
Do some research and bring back a few facts and sources. Then we can talk.
Assuming Obama doesn’t serve up a trainwreck in Iraq & Afghanistan over the next 4 years, then consider Gen David Petraus as a good possibility. Military cred, good leadership skills (can anyone say successful surge?), and would be a darling to lead the counterattack on the libs IF (big one) his social positions are not out of line with the mainstream of the party.
I’ll be the first to officially count him in.
David Patraeus is good choice as well, but he would need to be more than just a military figure. The American electorate has shifted, and no longer votes the same way toward military figures. John McCain, John Kerry, and Al Gore were all Vietnam veterans and did not win.
Not really. He doesnt seem interested in politics.
You’re basing that on 2008. If she goes on the trail to fundraise and campaign over the next 2-3 years, very different story. She lit me up not at all because she was cute, but because her social policies lined up with mine. Mac didn’t do it. As long as she gets a 2nd term as Guv, she’ll build up way more experience for the next run. As a woman, and a younger one at that, she definitely holds some chips to bring to the table.
All good picks for the race except one. Mike Huckabee has about as much chance of becoming President as Rosie O’Donnel has of becoming Ms. America.
Guess what, friend, that’s exactly what they said (and worse) about Obama four years ago. (and even two and a half years ago)
Nothing that anyone says could be “worse” than: “as much chance of becoming President as Rosie O’Donnel has of becoming Ms. America.”
What a frightening, disgusting, disturbing mental image!!
Mike Huckabee has made the shift into the entertainment world. I don’t think he can transition back unless he takes leadership in the Republican. I think his chance has passed him by.
I wouldn’t be so sure. Huck is an underestimated politician. And plenty of politicians dabble in news between runs.
Now don’t get me wrong, I hope he doesn’t run again, but all signs say he will.
Everyone underestimates Huckabee, he will be a factor. HE is widely popular among evangelicals, but after that not much.
At the moment, with everyone wanting a GOP that will have all 3 branches, Huckabee has no real chance, but he may still run.
I think his endorsement would be a BIGGER deal to the candidates.
I think he can play a role in the party, but he can’t be a leader. the Republican Party needs a new generation to stand up, not the old ones. Obama is a part of the next generation, post baby boomer, so the next leader should come from that era. I think they are desperate for new blood, which is why they love Sarah Palin.
I would put Jindal up higher. I think Jindal can appeal to moderates better. I remember hearing a prominent member of the Latino community saying that the republican party can either go in the direction of Palin or Jindal. If they go in the direction of Jindal, I think Obama might have a fight.
No chance for Rudy, hes a gonner. Steele may have a chance but against the mega 5 none.
By the way, Jason, thanks for an immediate distraction from the depressing realities of the day.
My only other consolation today is that it looks like Wierd Al Franken won’t be a Senator (unless the recount goes badly).
Yep, that is one consolation.
Did you see that AK Stevens is still keeping his seat????? What is it about alaska and electing corrupt Politicians to the legislature?
Jindal, Pawlenty or Palin – Yes! They need to take up the charge and take no prisoners. They have got to prove they are going to call the spineless GOP party to task if they deviate to the blackhole that is the “middle of the road.”
Let’s forget the old hats like Romney (I don’t trust him) and Huckabee, as much as I like him he seems to have a little to much baggage. Time to start fresh.
You have to have Jeb Bush on the list. for the trifecta.
My opinion:
Jindal:Rising star, really popular, basically identical to Palin in position. Catholic, Has a good chance.
Palin: 4 more years of experience, no more firing anyone and she will have a clear path to the nomination.
Romney: Has a network in place already attacking Palin, Has anyone seen him since Mac nominated Palin???? Was he bitter?
Has a chance, but the oxigen is being sucked out of the room by Palin and Jindal, maybe he can grab some. May have better chances if he doesnt flip flop on abortion again.
Huckabee: Who knows if he will run, has a good shot for the opening days, but seriously, Palin and Jindal are going to be just as popular among evangelicals. His base is going to be cut. He might as well throw his backing behind someone and campaign for them.
Sanford: Is their any oxigen left???
Other wannabees: Who cares?
Jeb Bush, may have a shot in 2012, but dont mention him right now, he better change his last name.
He is the only politician right now who does not benefit from his last name.
Jason,
Please remind me of your thoughts on Huck. If I recall, you couldn’t stand him, then could stand him maybe a little, then he was out.
I still remember (and call foul on) your 1/4/08 remarks on having insider info on Iowa caucuses.
My super powers sense your words about Huck are more personal than with others. What gives?
He liked him for a while, then he really liked him and then he disliked him.
Sounds like political puppy love. :-p
Personally I think Mitt Romney’s time was this year,and four years from now he will be elsewhere.
Palin I like a lot, but look for her elsewhere too. I think after Obama the public will be more interested in a technocrat to straighten things back out rather than a figurehead type.
Huckabee should perhaps have stood at the top of your picks here, as he comes out of it in a better position than any one of the also rans from this go round.
Mark Sanford will have to earn it in the primaries. He’s capable of doing that.
Somehow Newt got left out of this mix. He’s put himself into the position as being a prominant party spokesman, which is certainly a steppingstone to say the least.
Jindal already has a successful Governorship under his belt after just the short time he’s served Louisiana. He’s got ‘for real’ cred. He perhaps has more raw ability to offer the country than any other, and hopefully Obama won’t screw it up too bad for a person with an ‘ethnic’ attachment. Bobby’s biggest draw can also be his biggest downfall – “here I am” and full of accomplishment, but tends to want to run on his record and not ‘against’ anyone. If he’s not the top choice next time around he should at least be the number two and VP candidate. We couldn’t spare him as McCain’s choice this time around, for he had just too much to do here at home… but in four more years!?!
My pick for ‘12 would be a Huckabee/Jindal ticket, which would put Jindal in position to be Huck’s successor. But Palin will be a factor, maybe as a Senator…
but who knows… I’d never have though it would have been McCain this time. And I wouldn’t be at all suprized to see a Gingrich/Jindal ticket next time either.
Glad you threw Newt into the mix. I think that he is one of conservatism’s leading lights. The revolution certainly went off-track for a while, but I think that he has grown wiser over the years and is a great elder statesman.
Would make a KILLER running mate.
Oooohhhh… I love Newt!
IF the economy is sound and Obama is still popular when the next round cranks up, will the GOP’s best challenge him, or will they wait?
That’s a good point.
We’re in a global recession and theoretically, you fall in and out of a global recession must harder and faster than a domestic recession. So if economic theory holds true, we’ll pull out of this and Obama will look like the hero when in reality it won’t have anything to do with his policies or anyone else’s. So by the time the next election comes around, the economy will be fine.
That said, whatever policies he implements over the next year really won’t effect the economy until about 2014 so, if he’s not re-elected, the GOP will take the blame.
The mods and libs within the party didn’t like Palin because she wasn’t one of the “in” crowd. Next time around she will come to the table in much better standing with the party muckadymucks… she touched a constituancy you understand. That they can’t ignore. I look for he to be at the table as a Senator before too long, and she won’t have been on the inside so long as to lose any street cred. So…, discount her at your own peril…
Obama’s popularity didn’t come from any accomplishment or great record of service, he just announced himself the agent of “change”. And he isn’t in a real good position going into these next four years as it is, and with the policies he’s verbilized during the campaign if he actually tries to implement them look for a huge uproar… we were pissed with $5 gas, and he’s said he’d like to see it on par with Europe ($8-$10). He’s said flat out that his energy policy will add huge costs to our utility bills, and that will go over like a lead balloon once those bills come in. If he raises taxes you can kiss any possible job growth goodbye, and he says he’s raising taxes… He wants to cut our military, and we still face grave threats around the world… He wants to share our wealth with those ‘have nots’ around the world, and we all remember back to the days of massive foreign aid and how we felt about that… Plus he has all the illegals and those wishing to come here expecting a free pass, and we know the uproar that has caused in the past, so whichever way he rolls on that somebody ain’t gonna be happy…
Nope, he’s not in a very good position going into the game… time will tell.
1) Huckabee
2) Gingrich
3) Palin
4) Jindal
5) Romney
6) Sanford
7) Michael Steele
9) Mike Pence
10) Pawlenty
Where have you been??? Have not seen your post in a while.
I would say
1) This would be Jindal if he interested. America has gotten over the barrier of electing a minority and a nerdish/wonkish looking man. It also helps that he can throw the question of “Bush Doctorine” back at Gibson and chew him out or make Katie Couric look like the variety show host that she is. He seems to be strongest.
2) Palin is the next strongest. I think she still has to fight the “Way-out-of-her-leauge” stereotype. May be she can do it in the next four years.
3)Romney: If the economy is still not recovered by the time then he has no shot.
I think the others are long shot. Depends on who among Jindal and Palin can build the strong ground game, and motivate the younger voters and other minorities. Both have charisma… so it seems tossup to me.
Moderate Republicans and RINOs are the reason we’ll be inaugurating BHO on 1/20/09! When the Republican Party displays consistent moral courage and firm principles, it is successful. When it spends all its time kissing the heinies of the Dems, it fails – hence McCain’s failure. He’s an honorable and good man – but he doesn’t have the firm convictions necessary.
As to Huckabee – I’ve been watching him on Fox and he is rather dull and I don’t think he will fly nationally! Palin maybe. The rest are same old, same old EXCEPT Jindal and Thune. So those 3 are the trifecta to me.
Finally – could we for heaven’s sakes give it a REST for at least 2+ years? I am so sick of this campaign that just concluded that I would shriek – and that would not be anything anyone would want to hear!
I think I might run
I’ll vote for you Rusty. Can I be your campaign manager?
No Problemo. Let’s figure out the planks in my political platform….I’m thinking the border fence should be placed along the Mississippi river.
ROFL!!!
I can’t believe that no one has said the sacred name…..RON PAUL.
No matter that he’ll be an….older gentleman. He’s still the man, and he’ll be the man in 2012.
I was thinking that maybe he should wait until 2016.
More like 3016…….
I like Gov Matt Blunt, he is a great man and a wonderful speaker. We are looking for a insprational person with great speaking skills.
Bobby Jindal is another
Ted Stevens won his seat..but may not serve,,,talk is that Gov Palin will have to appoint some one..and many are thinking and hoping Palin will chose herslf.
Look at Rick Perry Gov of Texas too.
I’m a firm believer in never say never but cannot see how Perry (who is lacking in charisma and class – as a conservative voter who lived in Texas under part of his administration I can say that) and Blunt (whose reelection prospects this year were so bad he didn’t even run) would ever have a chance at being president. Perry is fortunate that the Democrats nominated a lackluster candidate in a GOP year in 2002, then he faced a split field of 3 opposition candidates who polled 60% of the anti-Perry vote thereby enabling him to win. And this in strongly Republican Texas!
Perry? No freaking way. I’ll tell you now, I’ll either vote Democrat or stay home.
I live in Texas. He wanted to take our teachers retirement fund and use it to fund start up companies. There are so many things wrong with that one issue alone, I don’t even know where to begin.
Sanford-Steele 2012
Steele-Bush(Jenna) 2020
Mark Sanford / Tommy Thompson 2012.
Assuming that Obama has not magically cured the recession around the Great Leaks, Tommy Thompson can run strong in the region while Sanford will will give what niether ticket had this time around: a southerner.
Sweet! I’m in!
That was supposed to go under Rusty’s comment…
It is truly sad that Pres Bush has so tarnished the Bush name,for the best candidate by far would be Jeb Bush.
Excellent record as Gov for two terms in a large population state,Catholic, speaks fluent Spanish, married to a Mexican, a true Coservative who appeals to all three legs of the stool,and is an EXCELLENT SPEAKER and campaigner.
Unfortunately, his last name is Bush.
If there ever is a Bush in our future, look at George Prescott, Jeb’s handsom,Hispanic looking son who now lives in Texas.
If Republican’s learn anything from this election, it is we don’t win with Senators or Congressman , we win with GOVENORS!
So, next time around, we need to choose the strongest of the GOVENOR candidates : Jindal. Romney,Palin,Daniels,or Sanford. ( In normal circumstances, Jeb Bush could beat them all.)
Let a Senator or Congressman be VP : Ryan,Cantor,Thune,Burr or Bachman for example.
ROLL!!!!
I might run, but I might want a low paying job in your campaign, whats open???
This was Ment for Alainas post declaring she is in.
Everything at the moment!