10 reasons McCain might win
Posted on October 31st, 2008 at 4:34 pm by Jason Wright, EditorMy thoughts are coming soon. For now, does anyone agree?
10 Reasons Why McCain Might Win
John Podhoretz - 10.31.2008 - 12:14 PMThis is why it might happen. Not saying it will.
1) One poll has undecided voters at 14 percent on the last weekend, which means most of them probably really aren’t undecided, that they are either going to stay home or vote preponderantly for McCain and pull McCain across the finish line.
2) Most pollsters are claiming the electorate this year is six to nine points more Democratic than it is Republican. That would be an unprecedented shift from four years ago, when the electorate was evenly divided, 37-37, Republican and Democratic, and a huge shift from two years ago, when it was 37-33 Democratic. A shift of this size didn’t even happen after Watergate.
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The Republican party has shifted gears to advocating for McCain on a grassroots level, all the way down the ballot. Every pro-life, pro-gun, anti-tax interest group in America is borrowing money and pouring checks into conservative consulting groups to make the case against Barack Obama. This is proving much more effective for us than relying on the McCain campaign to make the case for itself.
I really don’t buy it, and if this was a candidate I could get behind, I think some of these reasons would work.
But McCain V08 with the worst VP candidate ever does not inspire me, even if we face the most liberal Dem ever.
Joe Citizen has a good point. I’ve seen more NRA and other private group ads in the last 2 weeks than the entire 20 months up to now. They’re lining up on all kinds of issues important to social, fiscal, or security cons. Whether that was calculated, or simply a sense of “we’ve got to communicate what the Mac camp isn’t”, not sure.
I realize the ground game is huge out there for the Dems. But there’s been huge gaffes and missteps in the last 2 weeks that, once again, Barack ain’t closing the deal. Between Joe the Plumber, the Khalidi tape, and other various stumbles taken as a whole, it’s not looking like he’s smooth sailing into the final stretch.
Zogby just tracked a Mac lead in the polls for the first time in 6 weeks, since the financial crisis started. It may be too little, too late, but there is definitely going to be an interesting finish to this. This is not a slam-dunk for Barack anymore.
Come on RSE, are you looking at the same polls that now put Arizona in the “toss up” category? Now that would be an October surprise
Reports also suggest that the early voting is coming out in force for Senator Obama.
This reminds me very much of 1997 over here, the polls suggested a Tony Blair landslide, but the Conservative party were seen as the natural party of government, winning all but a handful of elections since WWII and people just assumed they would win again in spite of the polls. Blair ended up winning in a landslide with half a dozen cabinet minister’s losing their seats.
RSE, have enjoyed the sparing with you over the last few weeks, off on vacation today so wont be able to post until a few days after the election, so I wish you well but hope you lose!
One last question, had Senator McCain been able to run as he did in 2000, would he have stood a better chance of winning? This might be the personal tragedy, he seems a pale immitation of his true self.
oh, and Jason, what does “pinging” mean?
Relax and enjoy your vacation, Chris. Likewise, we leave on the 5th for a long weekend away, so I’ll be out till the 9th at the earliest. Get ready for 4 years of blog-bashing once the dust clears!
With J-Mac V2K? Doubt it. It would look even worse than the #’s are now. Not enough indies to supplant the base that he’d lose by swinging further to the left.
If the Liberals have their way you won’t be able to blog bash any Democrat.
This article does not pay attention to current polling. For example, people still trust Obama more with taxes, which is surprising for a Democrat. This tightening people keep talking about is not reflected in the real clear politics or the pollster averages, which still have him up by 6. Hispanics are shown to be 60 to 30 for Obama, that is why Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and even Arizona are leaning in Obama’s direction. In Ohio, a report indicated that only six percent of people leaned more toward McCain because of Joe the Plumber. The polling does not suggest that McCain’s presence in Pennsylvania is making a dent, and McCain would still need to pick up more Bush states. This article is more of conservative wishful thinking then fact based.
Hmmmmm. I’m sensing some rather positive vibes from you Jason. What happend to the despair and loathing?
That’s just over his ESPN Pigskin Pickem standings…