If the election were held today: October 6th, 2008
Posted on October 6th, 2008 at 12:58 pm by David Kaiser, EditorWelcome to the latest edition of “If the election were held today”
Using the RealClearPolitics poll averages, I’m going to post an electoral map with the results as they could happen if votes were counted today.
Now obviously, this is all based on polling, which I’m sure to have several of you grumble about. But I think this could make for an interesting, occasional snapshot of which way the tide is flowing in the battleground states.
Using the RCP averages as of today to pick winners for the battleground states, here are the results:
This map represents a disaster for the McCain campaign, as if the election were held today, Obama would sweep to the White House with the largest electoral college victory since 1996, with a 353-185 margin.
Where to begin for McCain?
His paths to win the election are starting to become fewer and fewer. First of all, the two states that were the linchpins to Dubby’s wins in 2000 and 2004, namely Florida and Ohio, are both tight, but the latest polls have trended Obama. McCain must win these states to even have a shot to win. If he loses either of these states, he’s done.
And now the bad news for McCain - Obama has leads in Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina. All three of these states went solidly for Bush in 2000 and 2004, and now McCain has to spend a lot of time, money and manpower to keep these states in his column. He cannot afford to lose these states either, or he has serious electoral math issues.
Now there are a couple of good bits of news for McCain.
First of all, Sarah Palin did well enough in the debate with Joe Biden to move herself from a hindrance to a help. I’m still not buying that she “won” the debate, but factor in the expectations factor, and she got more out of it than Biden did.
Second, John Kerry had a similar bounce in the polls about four or five weeks out in 2004, though not as pronounced nationally and not nearly as strong as Obama’s been doing in battleground and even some traditionally red states. Kerry’s bounce vanished leading into November, so there are some GOP strategists who are projected the same this cycle.
Third, McCain has two more debates to hammer on Obama, which gives him a chance to sway independents and blunt the current Obama surge.
The election is four weeks from tomorrow and McCain needs to start reversing some trends, or he faces some seriously long odds in the race for the Oval Office.
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Here’s a thought. Maybe he should come out swinging with a new campaign message aimed a pacifying his conservative base.
Something like:
“My Dear Fellow Americans, I am no longer for destroying the US Economy through Cap and Trade legislation. I am sorry I sponsored the McCain-Lieberman Stewardship Act and I no longer believe America is destroying the environment. I also have changed my mind on ANWAR, and now think that it is okay to drill there. You can thank Governor Palin for that one, she changed my mind. After spending like three hundred years in the Senate opposing drilling in ANWAR (and I might mention offshore drilling as well) Palin was able to change my mind in two months. She’s like my little conscious. A mini Maverick-et.
I am also sorry, truly sorry I succeeded in derailing the President’s effort to elect conservative judges to the bench. I didn’t know it was such a big deal to actually elect conservative judges. I thought talking about it was good enough. Its only the Legislative Branch of Government, how important could that be? Oh yeah. Ruth Bader Ginsberg. Sorry about voting to confirm Ginsberg to the Supreme Court, I didn’t realize she was THAT crazy at the time. Guess that whole ACLU membership thing should have clued me in. Oh well, sorry. I guess if she hadn’t been confirmed, then maybe McCain-Feingold might have been thrown out and that would be one less thing conservatives would have been mad about. I guess Judges really do matter. Sorry.
Also, I was wrong when I penned McCain-Feingold. I just didn’t think that America really cared about free speech and all that First Amendment crap. But now I am really sorry. Please forgive me. I love the First Amendment.
And speaking of bad legislation, sorry one more time for sponsoring the McCain-Kennedy Amnest…er…Guest Worker Bill. Wow, I didn’t know there were so many conservatives out there against illegal immigration. Sheesh! Sorry. All I really wanted was cheap labor.
And we won’t talk about the Anti-Gun-Show bill I introduced, twice. That really pissed of the NRA. You know, we should do something about special interests groups like the NRA, they are a real pain. Besides, it really wasn’t anti-gun. I just thought Americans shouldn’t be allowed to buy guns…I mean at gun shows that is. I voted against Clinton’s assult rifle ban, wasn’t that enough for you? Must I always be pro-gun in all forms? Or as you conservatives say pro “Second Amendment” whatever that means.
Look, let’s just forget about the past and look at the future. The real question you conservatives need to ask yourselves:
Do you want a Liberal for a President or an ultra-Liberal? The choice is yours America.
I’m John “Maverick” McCain and I approved this message.
And you McCain supporters wonder why his lead evaporated? You can’t win the election on Palin Power alone. She’s not running for President, John McCain is. And that’s the real problem, isn’t it?
I think McCain’s problem is the same one Bush Sr. had, he’s not adequately defending himself and his positions and he’s not attacking his opponent.
The economy is killing him. I think he’s got a lot of great things he can say about it, but he hasn’t and Obama is certainly taking advantage of it.
The difference between Kerry and the Oba-wan is that he has a pulse (the Oba-wan, that is). Kerry was/is a lifeless fish compared to Obama, so he could squander a 10 point lead in 24 hours.
McCain’s got to seal the deal and win the election on his own. He’s got scenarios around the world the equivalent of fat pitches, a “darling” of a VP, and some real gaffes and gooberhead moves from the other side. Yes, the econ has been breaking in Obama’s direction, but he’s still in range after all of that.
But this last 3 week stretch needs to be his to command, or he’ll be running for re-election in the state of AZ for the next 6 years.
The debates will make or break him. he can’t tie; he has to win them. And they’re all heading into the Oba-wan’s wheelhouse.
Mac’s got 6 states to win: FL, NC, VA, OH, NV,and NH to give him at least 269. Anywhere else, and the nod is his.
For the debates, maybe they can position Sarah Palin in the front row, and she can wink and wave at the TV camera every time they pan to her.
For me it was never about McCain — because all of those things you mentioned are true, but the Palin-pill made him a bit less bitter to swallow….and for all that is good and holy in my life I cannot vote for Obama, sorry, just can’t.
All I know is that when Obama is crowned…er, I mean, sworn in, we’re preparing for the worst. Glad I have some money in the matress and some food under the bed.
I am from Houston Texas, which makes me a Texans fan. Did anyone else see the Texans lose a 17 point lead with 4 minutes to play. I am not suggesting that camp-McCain is going to figure out a strategy to win this thing in the last 4 weeks, in fact, they will not. Like the Texans, the only thing that can save this election for John McCain is a complete blow-up by Barry Obama, himself. This election rests on the shoulders of Obama. Obama has shown great discipline…so an implosion seems less and less likely. As it was pointed by David, the game is not yet over and anything can, and might, happen. Four weeks is a lifetime in politics but camp Obama is leading by 10 with three minutes to play and possession of the ball, driving down field. It will take a fumble, touchdown, and a onside kick to get back in this game. Possible? Yes! Likely? No!
But there is always next ye….sorry, there is always 2012.
Brian,
Alvin Texas here, and it will take a “Clayton WIlliams” type comment from Obama to show how enormous the Texans collapse was or how big of a deficit John McCain has to overcome
So right about the Clayton Williams type of screw-up being needed.
Pearland, Texas here. Yes, I too am a Texans fan and saw that game, but I’m not ready to start comparing McCain to the Texans. I love the Texans, but they’re hopeless. Wasn’t Bush behing in the polls in 2000 and 2004? The RCP average is only 6 points. I look at it more like the middle of the 4th quarter of a Rockets game. We may be behind, but a lot can happen in the last 6 minutes of the game.
The problem is that McCain has engaged in a series of tactics rather than overarching strategy. Obama has had a strategy since the beginning of his campaign, and over the course of the last 19 months, he has hammered to states like Indiana Virginia. McCain goes on a week by week basis. Pigs with lipstick, suspending your campaign, and Jeremiah Wright do not all go neatly together. Voters are left to connect the dots.
I see this race far from beeing over.
In the end it is still Obama’s task to defend all the Kerry-states (which he probably does, though New Hampshire is still in question) and win another 19 EVs. Regarding this 19 EVs I see only Iowa relatively save in his column, for the margin and consistency of his lead over there.
What’s about the rest? With a lead of 3-4% in states like Ohio, Florida, Colorado etc. they all seem pretty unsafe for Obama and pretty well within reach of McCain’s hand. Unless there is no real gamechanger, no October-suprise I see a few factors, which McCain still give a decent shot in these battleground-states:
The Rovian tactics of attacking Obama on a personal level may well flip again a great bunch. Expect the mud to fly, Republicans are pretty good in that game and I’m not to sure, if Obama is capable to react.
The expected turnout of new-registered voters still has to be confirmed in practice. I doubt that all of these new voters who give Obama the lead in the current polls really show up on election day. They might give Obama an edge but in smaller amounts than currently expected By the way, could anyone tell me why elections are held on tuesdays, when most people are supposed to work? There is no evealuation attached to this question, I am just curious.
Third: there still remains the problem with the electronic voting-machines in many places. I also expect the usual problems, that registered voters are denied to vote, long lines in front of the voting cabins, which may deter many etc. This could well be a factor in close states.
So, all in all, many factors point into Obama’s direction and it probably is more than flip a coin. But I would not bet much money on him for the moment. It is still his task to win some states, while McCain “just” has to defend the same. Probably we can say more after next week’s debate.
We all seem to be in agreement that if the election were held today, I would have the same sick feeling that I had when Clinton was elected the first time. I really didn’t care the second time because the only reason Dole gave for us to vote for him is that he was a national hero and it was his turn to be president.
Unfortunately, McCain is the same lame thing as Bob Dole.
So Brian is correct in saying that Obama has to fumble badly to lose the election.
McCain should have opposed the bailout, but now it’s too late for him and for our country.
Huckabee in 2012 or any other candidate willing to scrap the IRS for a fair tax.
“Second, John Kerry had a similar bounce in the polls about four or five weeks out in 2004, though not as pronounced nationally and not nearly as strong as Obama’s been doing in battleground and even some traditionally red states. Kerry’s bounce vanished leading into November, so there are some GOP strategists who are projected the same this cycle.”
Here is a thought. The only polls that will matter are the ones coming out 4-7 days before the election when the pollsters truly have responsibility for what they put out if they want to be considered seriously. Currently, most pollsters are undersampling Republicans on the theory of the “bad Republican brand.” What of the Republican turnout is more historically consistent? Thoughts?
Well, I can’t argue with the idea that the polls that come out four to seven days before the election are more important than polls today.
I’m not sure that I agree that Republicans are being undersampled right now though.
If you are right, and the GOP turnout is more historically consistent, I still think McCain faces a major uphill climb, and here’s why:
1. The Democrats are enjoying a major bulge in registered voters right now, and a lot of these newly registered Democrats are young people and minorities, which are two of the more fervent groups of Obama supporters.
2. Even with strong Republican support, McCain would need a lot of help from independents to overcome the newly registered Democratic edge, and is currently down four points to McCain here.
3. By all accounts, the Obama ground game is one of the best ever seen. It’s the reason he won the nomination, and it could be the reason he wins the White House.
Despite all of this, plus the general national malaise towards Republicans, McCain still has a chance to win, but he needs to start making some hay quick.