If the election were held today: September 29th, 2008
Posted on September 29th, 2008 at 10:26 am by David Kaiser, EditorWelcome to the latest edition of “If the election were held today”
Using the RealClearPolitics poll averages, I’m going to post an electoral map with the results as they could happen if votes were counted today.
Now obviously, this is all based on polling, which I’m sure to have several of you grumble about. But I think this could make for an interesting, occasional snapshot of which way the tide is flowing in the battleground states.
Using the RCP averages as of today to pick winners for the battleground states, here’s the results:
With the crisis in the financial sector and the post Convention bump long gone, the McCain campaign must start to face the same reality they did through much of the summer - namely underdog.
The national polls have Obama up nearly five points on average, he’s begun to tighten his old on the states he needs to retain to be competitive, and now he’s starting to look good in places no Democrat has won in a long, long time.
Virginia and North Carolina are now singing the blues in the latest RCP averages, giving Barack Obama a 301 to 237 victory in the electoral college. The North Carolina news is the big story here, as McCain is now going to have to spend more time, money, and manpower in trying to hold states that have been reliably Republican for several elections now.
Of the eleven states listed as “toss up” states by RCP, Obama leads in seven, while McCain has the edge in four. To give a sense of how critical these toss ups are, if each candidate wins the states they are currently counting as “solid” or “leaning”, Obama would have a 228 to 163 lead over McCain.
Looking at the eleven toss up states, McCain would need to win six-to-eight of the toss ups right now, depending on the state, to overcome the current Obama edge. McCain could win Ohio and Florida, as well as retain North Carolina and Virginia, and still lose the election.
At this point, I think Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, while still competitive, are now going to start to become a reach for McCain. Mainly, he is going to have to start transferring resources to North Carolina, and think about strengthening efforts in Virginia, and these resources have to come from somewhere.
The Bush Electoral College strategy is starting to become very tenuous for McCain to follow. Three states Bush took against Kerry in 2004, New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa, are on the verge of becoming locks for Obama, and two more Virginia and North Carolina, are too close to call.
Five weeks from tomorrow.
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I’m in New Mexico, and I can tell you there is no way in h*** that McCain will take the state. There is no “verge” about it. The Obama love is strong and deep here. Just put the Land of Enchantment in the blue column for good.
Well I live in Virginia just outside D.C. and I have never seen a ground game like the one the Obama camp has here. I am being asked if I am an Obama supporter by a clipboard wielding teenager on my way into work and way out of work almost every day.
Yesterday I had to ask one who came to my door, asking for me and interrupting Redskins football, to please stop promoting black liberation theology and communism in my quaint little neighborhood on Sundays.
And I’ve heard the same thing in a lot of battleground areas. The Obama ground game, which got him Iowa and the nomination, is going to be the key to him winning the White House.
Ohhh….I would hate to be in your neighborhood these days Joe. The little clipboard armies are out in our public squares too. I am afraid to return my library books tomorrow for fear of being assaluted by them. I really don’t see the point, because like I said, NM is so blue right now even life saving measures will not bring it back from the brink!
Well, if it’s fish-or-cut bait time, McCain can still eke out a win if he holds all the red states on this map and holds NC, VA, and CO.
Transferring all remaining resources out of the blue states and funnelling them into ground game items might be a way to goose turnout in these 3 places. Obama can romp everywhere else if he hold them. Beyond that, I suppose he might have to spend some to hold OH and FL but that’s about it…
I think he’s toast in Colorado.
The McCain/Palin campaign is losing ground at the time in which it must absolutely make gains. McCain may be losing Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Indiana(!), and Missouri(!) as I post this… That’s what happens when the tracking polls enter the +5% area.
Blame the economy if you wish; blame the bad gamble to nominate Sarah Palin that looked good at the time to all but Democrats and now liooks like a disaster. McCain should have picked Senator Voinovich of Ohio, who gets respect in some States that could have helped him (PA, MI) and closed off IN and OH to Obama. It’s now too late.
Or give credit to Obama for one of the best-run campaigns in American history and being far-better prepared for this campaign with rhetorical skill, command of history, and a cool temper.
Obama due to his superior fund raising has put McCain on the defensive in protecting the red states from 2004. He has ran a better campaign and was able to sense which states would turn not by last years polling. What is most interesting about this map is that Obama does not need to win must have states of the last generation: Ohio and Florida.
Some of you might want to move to Texas where we don’t get bothered by annoying Obama-Teens, not in this solid Red State.
I bet you there are a few Obama-heads in Austin.
We should have given Texas back to Mexico long ago. Isn’t that where they drag black people behind trucks to death and kill people first, then prove them innocent later?
How McPalin still wins:
Virginia and North Carolina turn blue (ouch!)
BUT Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania can’t resist voting for their hockey mom, and stun the news stations on November 4.
Ohio and Florida stay red also.
Final score:
McPalin: 276
Nobama: 262
Analysis: McCain could lose NH or NM but not both.
If Obama wins VA and NC, McCain would have to win in CO and PA, and either NH or NM.
“BUT Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania can’t resist voting for their hockey mom, and stun the news stations on November 4.”
And on November 5th, NASA announces a new international space station with troughs for all the flying pigs in orbit.
Do they even know what hockey is in New Mexico?
Further analysis:
If Obama wins VA or NC, McCain is in big trouble!