I have too much time on my hands, so I decided to write a scenario with the Electoral College.

Due to the tight nature of the race, and by polls, which will undoubtedly change in the next weeks, it is practical to assume the possibility that the race could end up being decided by a hair of the popular vote and by the electoral college.

In this outcome, McCain has a most powerful advantage, which no one has noticed.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an agreement where the states would give their electoral votes to the candidate with the greatest number of popular votes (a plurality), even if no candidate has majority. In other words, unless they had a exact tie, the winner of the popular vote, no matter by how many votes, would get the states electors.

So far the only states where the compact has been passed are:

Maryland (Governor Martin O’Malley (D) signed it into law on April 10, 2007). 10 EC

New Jersey (Governor Jon S. Corzine (D) signed it into law on January 13, 2008) 15 EC

Illinois (Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) signed it into law on April 7, 2008) 21 EC

Hawaii became the forth, after overriding the veto of the governor. 4 EC

These states total 50 electoral votes, which will go to the winner of the popular vote.

Now, all the states mentioned are Democratic States, all currently overwhelmingly supporting Barack Obama for the Presidency.

If at the current scenario, which will undoubtedly change by Election Day, Obama is holding all the states that voted for Kerry in 2004, and has leads in CO, NM, NH, and Iowa giving him a total EC of 273 to McCain’s 265.

But, McCain is leading by 1 point in the RCP average, thereby, in the scenario I’m projecting; these Democratic States that so ardently signed the proposal to prevent another repeat of Gore vs. Bush have doomed Obama.

They thereby give their 50 delegates to McCain, giving him a final total of 315 to Obama’s 223.

The scenario would be a chaotic one, but it is a reasonable and likely scenario, which so far, has gone totally unnoticed by the National Media, and no mention anywhere I have found in the blogosphere.

The climate of the race will change in the next few weeks making this even less likely to occur, but if McCain pulls a narrow margin, the Interstate Compact will undoubtedly be terminated to prevent another repeat of this outcome.

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