If the election were held today: August 27th, 2008
Posted on August 27th, 2008 at 8:41 am by David Kaiser, EditorWelcome to the latest edition of “If the election were held today”
Using a fun little site called 270towin.com along with the RealClearPolitics poll averages, I’m going to post an electoral map with the results as they could happen if votes were counted today.
Now obviously, this is all based on polling, which I’m sure to have several of you grumble about. But I think this could make for an interesting, occasional snapshot of which way the tide is flowing in the battleground states.
Using the RCP averages as of today to pick winners for the battleground states, here’s the results:
After dominating ITEWHT since its inception, Barack Obama has nearly coughed up his once large lead over John McCain in the electoral college.
Signs of this have been popping up for weeks, mainly the form of tightening national polls, that the race was going to get closer. And closer it has gotten.
Gone from the Obama column are Ohio, Indiana and Nevada. Indiana was probably never really an Obama state, and now will unlikely go back to him with his selection of Joe Biden over Evan Bayh as his running mate.
Ohio is a different story.
As many a good little Republican knows, a GOP candidate has never won the Oval Office without winning Ohio. Ohio was the difference in 2004 for Dubbya, and will remain an extremely critical swing state in this election.
So in this edition, Obama edges McCain 273-265, but RCP averages have New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Colorado all incredibly tight races.
Buckle your seat belts kiddies. It’s going to be a very bumpy ride.
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Wow! Throw NH over to McCain and it gets really interesting at 269 each.
At which point the House picks the president, but not by pure votes.
Each state’s delegation gets one vote, and that vote would go to which party had the majority of seats in the House from that state.
In that case, Obama would win the election 27 to 21 votes, with two states abstaining because they have an even number of House members from each party.
The more amazing thing is that the Senate picks the Vice President, with each senator getting one vote. Currently there are 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans and two independents who have caucused with the Democrats, giving them a majority on paper.
Now the funny part, one of those two independent candidates is none other than Joe Lieberman, who is apparently going to speak at the GOP convention and has not been shy in his support for John McCain.
So it stands to reason that he could vote for the GOP Vice Presidential candidate, especially if HE happens to be that nominee. If the other independent senator goes Democrat, it makes a 50-50 tie.
Of course the tie breaker is current Vice President Dick Cheney, who would almost certainly give the nod to the Republican candidate, creating a split ticket White House.
Wow.
That could lead to an Consitutional amendment.
It would definitely lead to a legal battle that would make Bush v. Gore look like a picnic.
WOW is right! But keep in mind these polls leave out most young people and usually don’t survey voters who registered between the 2006 elections and today. There is also the notion that these groups won’t turnout as hard as they say they will. I believe the masses of newly registered african americans most certainly will though.
So McCain could win OH, VA, and FL and still lose.
BUT he cannot lose any of those three and still win. He needs ALL three in our likely scenarios, right?
Pretty much. But Obama cannot lose anything else if McCain wins those three, and New Hampshire, New Mexico and Colorado are all very close.
Or he could pick T-Paw and win Minnesota, making the other three states irrelevant (NM, CO, NH).
You do know that Pawlenty barely won reelection there in 2006 and that Minnesota hasn’t gone for a Republican since Nixon in ‘72?
You are aware that Governor Pawlenty won reelection in 2006 despite running in a traditionally Democratic state and having a horrible GOP brand that lost almost everywhere else that year.
Did you know that Pawlenty has a 59% APPROVAL rating in Minnesota, and that he has only a 31% DISAPPROVAL rating?
Did you know that according to a MPR/HumphreyInstitute poll, a selection of Pawlenty would pull away 1/4 of the voters who plan on voting for Obama, giving McCain a 13 point boost?
http://primebuzz.kcstar.com/?q=node/13849
I think that it’s unlikely that Pawlenty would be able to pull Minnesota over to the GOP column. I’m not saying it’s impossible, just unlikely. On the flip side, I think it’s plausible, but not guaranteed, that a Romney VP choice could help swing Michigan, which would be huge. Given the goings-on in Detroit these days with Mayor Kilpatrick, and the profound inaction by Gov. Granholm, there is a lot of anger in this state at Democrats. By the way, I’m a Ph.D. student at U-Mich. I also think that Romney would help McCain in the southern Rockies - Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico where he could definitely use a boost. Mind you, a Romney pick would potentially hurt McCain elsewhere, but it has electoral-vote benefits that seem at present to outweigh the costs.
Stephen,
I think you are on to why McCain has to pick Romney. The problem is that Romney’s dad was Michigan governor, like eons ago and the Obama bulge in that state is actually pretty firm at 6 to 8 points. But with it’s sizable Mormon population, the Mountain West could tilt to McCain if Romney was on the ticket.