Time grows short for Barack Obama to pick his running mate, and who that person may be is about as clear as Dubbya’s exit strategy for the Iraq War.

Despite some hype that it could be a “shock” pick, most out there have the field narrowed to the same few horses we’ve been breezing around the track over the last few weeks. Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Tim Kaine are the top tier, with Jack Reed and Kathleen Sebelius one notch down.

So let’s make a prediction. Give me the day and the candidate.