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If the election were held today: August 12th, 2008

Posted on August 12th, 2008 at 3:21 pm by David Kaiser, Editor

Welcome to the latest edition of “If the election were held today”

Using a fun little site called 270towin.com along with the RealClearPolitics poll averages, I’m going to post an electoral map with the results as they could happen if votes were counted today.

Now obviously, this is all based on polling, which I’m sure to have several of you grumble about. But I think this could make for an interesting, occasional snapshot of which way the tide is flowing in the battleground states.

Using the RCP averages as of today to pick winners for the battleground states, here’s the results:

Electoral Math Map 8.12.08

It took almost a month, but there finally has been a shift in the electoral college. After holding a 322-216 lead for the last several weeks, the national polling that shows an Obama slip has finally been reflected in the state polls.

Virginia has flipped (again) back to the McCain column, to reduce the Obama electoral lead to 309 to 229. Additionally, the RCP average for Ohio has Obama only up by 0.5% in a state that is critical to both candidates.

Still, the averages predict a solid win once again for Barack Obama, who has won each of the four ITEWHTs I’ve posted.

Posted in White House-2008 by David Kaiser, Editor • 2 comments  2 comments •  Post a comment

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2 Comments

  1. Lawson on 12.08.2008 at 17:07 (Reply)

    Based on those numbers there are still 8 states I think could posibly switch.

    FL, VA, and MO from McCain to Obama

    and

    NH, MI, OH, IN, and PA from Obama to McCain.

    If all went Obama
    it would be 360 to 178 Obama

    If all go McCain
    it would be 302 to 236 McCain.

    I think there is still alot that can change so I think it is definitely not over.

  2. Whodat in Texas on 12.08.2008 at 22:03 (Reply)

    A map like this and published today
    Makes Ridge of Pennsylvania look like a very smart choice.

    But, my bet is that Obama has peaked anyway. Unless Mac really does something stupid, Reagan Democrats (mostly blue collar, hard working, conservative white guys) are not going to vote a majority for a black guy with an Arab name and a lawyer wife.

    Whodat

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