McCain leads Obama by a nose

By Stephen Fountain, Editor

Filed Under Race for White House 2008 on Aug 4 

John McCain leads Barack Obama for the first time in daily presidential tracking according to Rasmussen Reports:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%. This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3.

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8 Comments

  1. Jason Wright, Editor on 04.08.2008 at 10:03 (Reply)

    Um, wow. As we’ve said over and over, Obama should have a big lead right now, maybe not 20-points, but certainly double digits given the coverage, his world tour, his fundraising, etc. This should be extremely sobering news for democrats.

  2. RedstateEddio on 04.08.2008 at 10:36 (Reply)

    It’s all about the big “O”-oil, you perverts. As long as McCain pledges to lift OS drilling and say yes to all kinds of aggressive energy dvelopment (more oil, alterntatives for future), and the Oba-wan keeps saying no, the swing will continue to happen.

    Oil is about as concrete a symbol of the economy as it gets. No oil, no economy, no jobs. Simple.

  3. Mike on 04.08.2008 at 12:31 (Reply)

    Go John GO, Kerry was up by 15 at this time during the election. When it is all said and done Obama is nothing but a popular empty suit.

  4. RedstateEddio on 04.08.2008 at 12:49 (Reply)

    Wow. Just to unpack the data a bit…

    1. 69% of voters have seen or heard news coverage of McCain’s ad including Britney Spears and Paris Hilton. Just 22% believe the ad was racist. But, most say Obama’s comment about not looking like other Presidents on the dollar bill was racist.

    2. A week ago today, Obama had a 3% lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.

    3. McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination. Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.

    The only good news for Obama: The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 59.3% chance of winning the White House.

    How’s that next edition of ITEWHT coming? I’ll be curious to see if the shift continues next week & what that will do to the state-by-state #’s.

    1. David Kaiser on 04.08.2008 at 14:27 (Reply)

      I usually only do ITEWHT when there’s been a change in the numbers. There hasn’t been any changes with the RCP averages since the last time I did it, so I’m waiting to see what happens when the next batch of state polls come out.

      I expect Virginia to flip back and forth all the way to the end. Florida has trended Obama in the last two polls, but McCain still has a slim lead.

      It’s interesting to look at the toss-up states. Right now, RCP has Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Indiana, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Michigan as “toss-up” states, based on polling averages.

      Of those 11 states, Bush won nine of them against both Gore (New Mexico, Michigan) and Kerry (New Hampshire, Michigan).

      Obama currently leads in seven of those 11 states.

      This is why I still contend the first national poll that is relevant won’t be until early September.

  5. Troy La Mana on 04.08.2008 at 13:05 (Reply)

    I think the Dems leaving on vacation instead of dealing with this energy issue is really going to hurt Democrats running for office, including Obama. Not adjourning the session and leaving one Democrat in the House so no recess appointments can be made is going to hurt them even more.

  6. Tony on 04.08.2008 at 21:12 (Reply)

    Assuming all goes as planned and McCain is the GOP nominee, should he get in, he’ll almost certainly alienate the ‘conservative base’ so much so that he’ll have a Democratic Congress in 2010 (maybe 2008) and almost be guaranteed out of a job in 2012. With a Democratic Congress and President, you can be guaran-damn-teed that they will impose their socialist agenda at will! If the GOP delegates cannot bring themselves to vote for Ron Paul at the convention, then the GOP must abandon all hope of getting the White House this time around and concentrate on getting back control of Congress, particularly the House of Reps. in an attempt to stop some of Obama’s worst encroachments!

  7. Troy La Mana on 04.08.2008 at 21:53 (Reply)

    This is why I said it almost be better if Obama did win. That way the Dems can’t blame the GOP when all Hell breaks loose. Then the Mid-Terms would be a Republican sweep and Obama would be out in 2012.

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