Welcome to the latest edition of “If the election were held today”

Using a fun little site called 270towin.com along with the RealClearPolitics poll averages, I’m going to post an electoral map with the results as they could happen if votes were counted today.

Now obviously, this is all based on polling, which I’m sure to have several of you grumble about. But I think this could make for an interesting, occasional snapshot of which way the tide is flowing in the battleground states.

Using the RCP averages as of today to pick winners for the battleground states, here’s the results:

Electoral Math Map 7.18.08

It’s been a few weeks since I’ve upated ITEWHT, mainly because there had been no movement on the board since the last time we ran through this little exercise.

And now that there has been some changes, it’s interesting that it didn’t move in the direction one might expect. One of the bigger stories recently was a Newsweek poll that had McCain and Obama neck-and-neck in the general election.

This should translate to some of the state polls moving toward Senator McCain’s way, right?


Not only has Barack Obama held on to all the state poll averages since July 1st, he’s picked up Nevada and Virginia, giving him, if the election were held today, an electoral college victory of 322 to 216.

For those of you keeping track at home, Obama has swept all three episodes of ITEWHT, by counts of 280-258, 304-234 and now 322-216.

Stay tuned for another thrilling episode of If the election were held today, same PD time, same PD channel.