Welcome to the second edition of “If the election were held today”.

Using a fun little site called 270towin.com along with the RealClearPolitics poll averages, I’m going to post an electoral map with the results as they could happen if votes were counted today.

Now obviously, this is all based on polling, which I’m sure to have several of you grumble about. But I think this could make for an interesting, occasional snapshot of which way the tide is flowing in the battleground states.

Using the RCP averages as of today to pick winners for the battleground states, here’s the results:

Electoral Math Map 7.1.08

First, the only good news for McCain is that the latest RCP averages have him back on top in a very tightly contested race in Virginia.

After that, it gets ugly for the Straight Talk Express. Current poll averages have him now down in New Hampshire, Michigan, New Mexico and Indiana.

Compared to my first map, Obama now controls the Rust Belt and has made some gains in the Southwest, while losing some ground in the “Solid South”.

Based on current poll averages, if the election were held today, Barack Obama would roll into the Oval Office with a comfortable electoral victory of 304 to 234.