I’m debuting a new piece that I want to mix in regularly, and it’s basically what the results of the election could be if it were held on a specific date.

Using a fun little site called 270towin.com, which I’ve written about before, along with the RealClearPolitics poll averages, I’m going to post an electoral map with the results as they could happen if votes were counted today.

Now obviously, this is all based on polling, which I’m sure to have several of you grumble about. But I think this could make for an interesting, week-by-week snapshot of which way the tide is flowing in the battleground states.

Using the RCP averages as of today to pick winners for the battleground states, here’s the results:

Electoral Math Map 6.20.08

In this scenario, Barack Obama defeats John McCain, 280 to 258.

Keys here are obviously Ohio and Virginia flipping to blue for Barack Obama. I personally think Virginia is more likely to go blue than Ohio, but if Hillary actually does work hard for Obama, you can’t rule out him winning there either.

The Rust Belt stays mostly blue as well in this scenario, with just Michigan going into John McCain’s column. Iowa defects to Obama, as well as Colorado.

Again, take this for what its worth – purely a fictional guess based on current RCP polling averages – but would love to hear some feedback.

“If the election were held today” will appear regularly on PD leading up to November.

Comments

  • Lazlo

    Everyone please notice…

    Now that Ron Paul is out of the picture, neo-libs suddenly want to pay attention to polls and the issues.

    To which, I shall reply,
    McCain is old. McCain is grumpy. McCain is a light-weight in a heavy-weight race. McCain is not conservative. McCain’s military record is basically being an Admiral’s son.

    In total, McCain is a “crazy old”.

    http://rawstory.com/news/2008/SNL_breaking_news_John_McCain_crazy_0316.html

    In fact, McCain is crazy, grumpy old and sad…and a loon and a kook to boot!

    And anyone who backs McCain is more crazier, grumpier, older, sadder, loonier, and kookier than McCain.

    Now imagine hearing that a dozen times a day for a year.

  • Pdiddy

    whodat is my idol, you need your own blog!!!

    • Whodat in Texas

      I wish I could get my wife and my boss to ever say something nice about me. Thanks, Pdiddy and Redstate. Y’all really make an old man feel good. I’ll keep trying to entertain.

      By the way, watching Geraldo on Fox
      right now, he had polls which show Obama only 3 points up nationally.

      The Newsweek poll? Please remember that it IS “the Newsweek Poll”

  • RedstateEddio

    “I think the states mostly inhabited by idiots are likely Obama’s base. These would include, California, Oregon, Washington, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Colorado.”

    I am still laughing at that one!

    Don’t forget Illinois – remember, they all cheer for the Cubbies (talk about a losing tradition)…

    P.S. Madison, WI has almost as many libs per square mile as does Berkeley, CA

  • Whodat in Texas

    Where are these polls coming from?

    I have much more respect for the blue collar Reagan Democrats of Ohio and Virginia’s “down-state” retired and active military than to believe those two will turn blue.

    Nor can I believe that New Jersey’s Jews, Hispanics and corporate types will be outweighed by Newark and area – which will vote 98% for Obama (but that is not racist).

    Nor could I imagine that Pennsylvania’s strong moderate base, largely white middle class could join Barack’s flock…

    I even have a hard time believing that New York City, with more Jews than Israel and maybe more Hispanics than Puerto Rico, be jama-for-Obama. Upstate will quake for Mac.

    So, bottom line, I think the states mostly inhabited by idiots are likely Obama’s base. These would include, California, Oregon, Washington, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Colorado.

    So, my prediction: Bill Clinton
    won because he ran as a moderate – and attracted many good solid middle-class folks who happen to be blue-collar. Obama will lose because he is, is running as, and will always be a big liberal. Reagan Democrats don’t do liberals.

    Let me be blunt; This election is black and white, and there are still more whites.

    Whodat the unambiguous

    • Patrick Keegan

      Whodat, you can’t imagine that someone would vote for another person strictly because of race?

      I really hope not, but that is the implication I read.

      Can you imagine airplanes?
      Can you imagine a cure for polio?
      Can you imagine a man on the moon?

      So, bottom line, I think the states mostly inhabited by idiots are likely Obama’s base. These would include, California, Oregon, Washington, New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Colorado.

      Sounds like there may be a few idiots in Texas as well.

      • Whodat in Texas

        Can you really imagine that Obama carried black voters by 90% plus
        during the primaries, and heavily black states like SC and LA?

        And he really lost big in white working man states like WV, Texas, KY, Ohio and IN…

        Do you really think that was cause each voter carefully considered the options?

        Poor liberal Patrick, facts are so inconvenient, are they not?

        Whodat been known to share a few cold ones down at the icehouse with the working men. The words are much more colorful, but the message is the same as I hear at my local golf club: (I’ll spare you that, but there is no Barack flock…)

        Next week, we’ll cover Teddy’s driving record as we explode popular myths which liberals believe…

        • Whodat in Texas

          P.S. to My lil liberal buddy, Patrick.

          Take a couple of field trips, Pat.

          Why don’t you make a few brothers lounges in Newark with some MacCain literature…

          You might get by with ice and band-aids, but it could get…

          And visit a couple of working man hangouts in Huntington, WV with some Obama stuff.

          If you survive, let us know about it…

          • Patrick Keegan

            I’ve taken plenty of “field trips” Whodat, and I’ve lived to tell the tale. My point is that not everyone of one demographic group feel the same, and you’re saying that you can’t imagine why the wouldn’t feel the same about Obama or McCain.

            90% isn’t 100%, even in your math.

            Being a Democrat identifies me with more Americans than you my friend. Try being a tad more open minded?

            • Patrick Keegan

              That said, I respect your firmness in your beliefs, even if I disagree with the beliefs themselves.

              I’m going to make the same offer to you as I did to AndDru in another thread, let’s shake hands and agree to disagree?

              • Whodat in Texas

                Hey, I wore a uniform once and they told me that part of the reason was just so that we could disagree.

                In fact, I consider the First Amendment as an obligation to speak freely, “debate”, as much as a right to do it.

                Whodat takes golf seriously and personal, never politics

              • Patrick Keegan

                Sounds fair to me!

  • Troy La Mana

    Here is a What IF.

    I don’t think the Dems are going to take Ohio so I switched that on my map.

    If Barr can carry Georgia then neither candidate wins.

    McCain – 263
    Obama – 260
    Barr – 15

    If I remember correctly the election would be turned over to Congress to select the President and the Senate to select the Vice-President.

    There is a possibility for a split White House.

    • David Kaiser

      Troy, that is correct, the House would select the President and the Senate the Vice President.

      The only flaw in your logic as far as I’m concerned is I don’t think Bob Barr has a snowball’s chance in hell at winning Georgia.

    • Brian H

      Troy. I respect your enthusiasm but at the end of the day Barr will have as many electoral votes as I do…….ZERO.

      If casting votes for candidates who have no chance of winning is good citizenship then why vote for Barr. Abe Lincoln, G. Washington, Reagan, Teddy R., Thomas Jefferson, and Jesus should get a vote should they not?

      • Troy La Mana

        It’s people who vote for “best chance to win” that have screwed up the process. You should always vote your conscience no matter what.

        • Brian H

          As long as those who “vote their conscience” understand that they will be living with the consquences of that action. If President Obama aluting Marines off of Air-Force One sits well in your stomach than vote your consience.

          • Troy La Mana

            Fear will not drive my vote. I’ll vote for whom I feel is the best candidate. If that means McCain loses to Obama then the GOP should have put up a better candidate to begin with.

      • RedstateEddio

        Brian:

        Isn’t a vote for Mike Huckabee = vote for Jesus?

  • Troy La Mana

    If McCain continues to stump like Thompson then he’s done for.

  • RedstateEddio

    Some X-factors I see:

    1) Obama bypassing the public funds for a bigger money train.

    2) Usually Dems are crushing the Repubs this time of the year, but are not right now.

    3) Veeps

    4) Conventions – J-Mac’s gotta hit a 3-run home run in order to get the momentum moving. He seems to be politicking at the speed of the front porch swing at the old folks home. Obama’s just gotta show up and not say anything stupid (or have an aid do it for him).

  • Gary Russell

    I agree with Toby. Alan Keyes is the Republican version of Jesse Jackson. We love his policies, but he is extremely flawed as a candidate, and it has nothing to do with skin pigmentation. To use Keyes to suggest that Republicans are racists, you would have to be implying that Jesse shows the same thing about Dems.

    As for media coverage, the only reason that McCain got a fair shake in the PAST was because he was the anti-Bush, and the MSM could hurt Bush by supporting McCain. That reasoning no longer applies, which is why the MSM suddenly has turned on him.

    Don’t get me wrong. I’m not implying that all is rosy for the GOP at all. I’m just saying that both candidates are flawed. But, in view of the facts that I stated earlier, Obama should be cleaning MCain’s clock right now. If I’m a Dem, I’ve gotta be a little worried.
    (we GOP’ers are already worried!)

    • Gary Russell

      Oops. Should’ve said “I agree with Troy”.
      (not that Toby isn’t right, too)

      • RedstateEddio

        No, Toby’s left. Way left, as in just left of Elvis and exiting the building…:-)

  • Toby

    if you really want a good, detailed look at the state of the race, check out fivethirtyeight.com…

    the author uses a detailed equation involving polls, analysis of demographics, and regression models to look at the whole picture.

    the polls are weighted both on how recent they are, how accurate the pollster was throughout the primaries, sample size, etc…

  • J. Shawn Durham

    No Gary, let’s remember that most elections, even in a change year, are won in the middle and McCain appeals to a lot of independents. Secondly, there are still a sizable sum of the electorate that simply WILL NOT VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE.

    Even if some people agreed with all of his prinicipals and policies, they simply won’t do it. And I don’t want to hear ONE CONSERVATIVE say otherwise. Why? Two words: Alan Keyes. Conservatives believe in his policies lockstep, yet he can’t ever garner more than 5 percent o fhte vote.

    Nevertheless, take a look at those numbers Gary: Obama beat Clinton by swelling the polls with people who never voted before. These polls are based off likely voters. But guess what? How do you include likely voters who have never participated in the process. And if these polls are calling people listed in teh phone book, whoat if many are like me?

    Thirty-one, single and my house phone is my CELL PHONE. i ain’t ever getting a pollster to call me jsut because of that fact.

    But guess what? I voted.

    But back to that race thing: Obama’s candidacy is hindered by that, but McCain is also hindered by his age. And don’t act like McCain hasn’t gotten favorable press. He has been a media darling most of his career.

    Anyway, back to facts: McCain doesn’t have the money and that could hurt. Of course, it’s only June now, but right now, it doens’t look all that good for McCain. Most conservatives pundits say that.

    • Troy La Mana

      If Alan Keyes acted like Obama with the same principals instead of acting like a loon I would vote for him. I liked him the first time he ran for President but not now.

      • Lazlo

        Awhile back, Keyes didn’t act like a loon…and he was thrown under the bus…locked out of debates that he was winning.

        Sound familiar?

  • kristen

    Interesting. I like the addition.

  • J. Shawn Durham

    With Obama likely to have a 3 to 1 advantage in money, he’s going to try to play in all 50 states, and right now he’s a is totally on offense. Troubling numbers out of the south, and states where Mac was hoping to steal like Pennsylvania and Ohio are now in Obama’s camp. And He MUST win one of those states.

    I don’t think the money or the organization is there at the moment for John McCain.

    • Gary Russell

      Shawn, explain this:

      1) Obama has a huge advantage in $$$$.

      2) Obama has (mostly) received extremely favorable treatment by the MSM.

      3) It is an ideal year for Democrats (due to the tendency of the country to vote for the other party after one party has been in power for eight years).

      And yet… a flip of any state worth eleven or more electoral votes causes him to lose to an underfunded, charismatically-challenged Republican opponent?

      It seems to me that the numbers are more troubling for Obama than for McCain.

  • Eric

    True, polling numbers can’t be trusted, but I think it will be an interesting exercise based on what we’ve got. Thanks. I wonder if there will be more changes in the map between Nov. 3 and 4 than between now and then.