I’m debuting a new piece that I want to mix in regularly, and it’s basically what the results of the election could be if it were held on a specific date.

Using a fun little site called 270towin.com, which I’ve written about before, along with the RealClearPolitics poll averages, I’m going to post an electoral map with the results as they could happen if votes were counted today.

Now obviously, this is all based on polling, which I’m sure to have several of you grumble about. But I think this could make for an interesting, week-by-week snapshot of which way the tide is flowing in the battleground states.

Using the RCP averages as of today to pick winners for the battleground states, here’s the results:

Electoral Math Map 6.20.08

In this scenario, Barack Obama defeats John McCain, 280 to 258.

Keys here are obviously Ohio and Virginia flipping to blue for Barack Obama. I personally think Virginia is more likely to go blue than Ohio, but if Hillary actually does work hard for Obama, you can’t rule out him winning there either.

The Rust Belt stays mostly blue as well in this scenario, with just Michigan going into John McCain’s column. Iowa defects to Obama, as well as Colorado.

Again, take this for what its worth – purely a fictional guess based on current RCP polling averages – but would love to hear some feedback.

“If the election were held today” will appear regularly on PD leading up to November.