The endgame
Posted on May 29th, 2008 at 2:29 pm by David Kaiser, EditorDespite what some think, my prediction is that the Democrats will put an end to the three ring circus that is the race for their party’s nomination to bed sooner rather than later.
The endgame starts on Saturday, when the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, a group that has about as good a decision-making system as Eliot Spitzer, will meet to settle the dispute over the Michigan and Florida delegations.
Clinton wants the full delegations from both seated, Obama wants none of them. A compromise is more likely, with half of the delegates from each state seated. Now while a majority of these delegates would be pledged to Clinton, but it would not put a significant dent in Obama’s delegate lead.
Some that support the Clinton campaign knows its dead, and now they feel it is just trying to make the corpse look pretty for the viewing.
One Clinton supporter on the rules panel, who asked not to be named in order to be able to discuss the matter candidly, conceded that there was virtually no outcome in the committee that could lead to a Clinton victory.
“It’s not going to make a difference,” the Clinton ally said. “At the end of the day, what we do on Saturday is not going to change the fact that Obama is going to win the nomination.”
Clinton is crying a river that the votes in Florida and Michigan need to be counted, but oh my, what would happen if the shoe was on the other foot? You can bet that she would be fighting every effort in the world to have them sat at the convention. The fact that she’s losing is just an inconvenient truth. (Sorry Al).
And then there is this quote:
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), a Clinton supporter, said in an interview that there would be “varying degrees of disappointment” if Florida wound up with less than a full delegation. “Anything short of that is pointless,” she said. “The nerves in Florida are still very raw when it comes to the question of counting our votes.”
Disappointment Representative Schultz?
That disappointment should be laid squarely at the feet of your own party’s state committee, who told the DNC to shove it up their rear end and broke the rules to schedule their primary earlier in the nomination process. The ironic part of their inane, childish and plain old stupid efforts to make themselves more relevant in the process is if they had follow the policy set up, they never would have lost their delegates and likely would have played a significant role.
Cry me a river, build me a bridge, and get over it.
Part two of the endgame is Sunday, with the biggest remaining prize of the primary season taking place in Puerto Rico. No, they can’t vote for president, but they sure can help pick the nominee, as was already discussed on PD.
Clinton is likely to win this contest, win a couple more delegates than Obama and declare that the will of the people have spoken, and that she should obviously be the nominee.
Next stop on the endgame train is Tuesday for the final two primaries in Montana and South Dakota, where you can pretty much anticipate par for the recent course - Obama and Clinton basically split the delegates evenly.
Which brings us to the coup de grace.
Nancy Pelosi is already setting up machinations to end this mess. She has said for some time now that she would support the candidate with the majority of the elected delegates at the end of the primary cycle, which we will see in Montana and South Dakota. Pelosi brings her superdelegate vote, along with a mess of others, that is very likely to put Obama over the delegate count he needs to win.
Clinton is desperate, but she isn’t stupid. Once Obama has surpassed the delegate threshold, for the good of the party she’ll fold up the tents.
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very well said - she’ll take the huck approach - “i had a right and obligation to stay - but now I step aside for the man the voters have chosen”
But should could be nuts, as per this column in the Philadelphia Daily News today.
For the good of the party? How about, for the good of her place in the party? She will, after all, have to save face for her continuance in the Senate and her already planned 2012 campaign. I know I sound jaded, but we are talking about political strategy.
Eric, I’ll agree with that line of thought, and knowing the Clintons history, it’s a good way to put it.
You can’t fault Hillary for doing what she is allowed to do. She may not win the nomination but she had every right to take it as far as possible. Only if Obama has enough delegates to win the nomination should she step aside. If that doesn’t happen until the convention so be it.
The goal here is to set herself up for 2012. I think Obama and Hillary has done in the party for this election. McCain has the playbook to win with either nominee.
I don’t fault her at all. I frankly don’t care, but it is an interesting story, which is why I write about it.
I’m trying to have fun with what the races give me, and right now, the dems are dealing all the fun.
I like to think what I write is at least entertaining, even if you completely disagree.
Well, the image of a three-ring circus in a bed is certainly entertaining… and intriguing.
On the other hand {SHIFT HERE FOR NEW METAPHORS}, dreamy/nightmarish (dependiong on POV) talk of a Hillary VP slot signals desperation, which means she is seeing the light and it ain’t shinin’ on her shoes!
Do you really think the DNC or Pelosi can put this to bed without a knock down drag out fight on the convention floor?
Better buy your tickets; this’ll be the fight of the year!
I do actually. Like I said in the post, I think Hillary knows its over, she’s playing out her pawns until she tips her king over.
Hillary wants to make herself as out there and competitive as possible, because she wants to be the “next” candidate if Obama falls to McCain.
It’s politics.
Team Obama won’t except anything more for Hillary than a 50-50 split of the Michigan delegates, since he wasn’t even on the ballot. If not, they will just walk.
They might give her a bit more for Florida, say 60-40%, but that won’t make a difference in delegate count.
Therefore, her only argument is the “popular vote” one which she is making–and that dog doesn’t hunt. Does she really think the party will change the rules for her? I think she might?
Does anybody else think Bill Clinton and Terry M are telling Hillary about now…well, it’s not such a bad thing to become the female Ted Kennedy of the Senate, now that he isn’t doing to well. I do.
That might be her saving grace, or at least rationalization mentally. Of course, she won’t be a Teddy Kennedy I don’t think…but she prob can if she wants to.