Democratic nomination decided by… Puerto Rico?!?
Posted on May 8th, 2008 at 3:21 pm by David Kaiser, EditorPD reader Bruce dropped us a message that included an interesting proposition - what if the primary in Puerto Rico, which is not a U.S. state, were to be the deciding factor in the race for the Democratic primary?
Puerto Rico, which is a U.S. territory, cannot vote for electors in the electoral college, which essentially means they cannot help elect a President in the general election.
Yet, they can play a role in the picking of a presidential nominee.
Now at this point, I think Puerto Rico will wind up meaningless, based on the delegate math out there. There are 217 delegates up for grabs in the remaining primaries and as of this afternoon, about 270 unpledged super delegates.
Barack Obama is 180 delegates away from clinching the nomination. Obama is likely to win Oregon, South Dakota and Montana and Clinton is expected to do well in West Virginia, Kentucky and the aforementioned Puerto Rico.
If we make the assumption that the delegates from these six contests will roughly get split, event giving Hillary say, a net gain of 10 to 15 delegates, it still leaves her 145 delegates behind Obama and him less than 80 from clinching.
Queue the super delegates, which I would logically think the majority would have to go to Obama’s side. Many of them are in the Pelosi group that have promised to side with the delegate leader at the end of the primary season.
And how can Hillary be that leader?
Well, while theoretically she can, just as theoretically I could be a professional football player. I haven’t put the pads on since freshman year of high school, it ain’t happening.
Put it this way, if Hillary wins all six of the remaining primaries (which she won’t), and win them by a 75 to 25 percent margin (which she won’t) she would still trail Obama by 40 or so delegates.
But if things were a lot closer, Bruce’s point remains. How do you feel about a U.S. possession that is not a state being a deciding factor in a presidential nomination race?
10 Comments
Leave a comment
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Even worse - 2 states don’t get their delegates’ votes counted, while a US possession becomes the kingmaker?
Wow, just bizarre…
I’m sure we’ll see a posting by Toby on this one.
Remember, the DNC is the one that decided that those 2 states don’t count.
Of course, the DNC will plead temporary insanity due to global warming, or due to the fact that W lied to them…
[…] Democratic nomination decided by? Puerto Rico?!? By David Kaiser Barack Obama is 180 delegates away from clinching the nomination. Obama is likely to win Oregon, South Dakota and Montana and Clinton is expected to do well in West Virginia, Kentucky and the aforementioned Puerto Rico. … PoliticalDerby.com - http://politicalderby.com/ […]
here’s the “posting by Toby”
while the Obama campaign can’t be too open about it, the nomination race is over, and everyone knows it. Even Hillary knows it, but is having trouble dealing with it.
It’s not over when neither candidate has enough votes to win the nomination and that is why Hillary is taking it to the convention. That, and her ego just won’t let go.
this, of course, coming from the same person who said that Ron Paul was the Republican with the best chance of beating Hillary
You confuse me with Lazlo. I support Ron Paul because he is the only candidate who would uphold the Constitution. Anyone can beat Hillary now.
Just returned from the AzGOP State Convention this morning friends - good event. The major outcome? Unity. Was everyone happy with the delegate selection? Hard to say since I didn’t hear any complaints (and my wife and I were on the ballot but didn’t get the nod). Oh well, that’ll save me a bundle of dough come September.
Here’s my observation: paragraph #5 does not take into account the timing of these primary elections. If they were all on the same day, perhaps the point would be different.
The fact I don’t see noted is the Puerto Rico’s 55 delegates are chosen on June 1 and South Dakota and Montana don’t come into play until June 3rd.
Hence my observation that Puerto Rican US NATIONALS will have a say in who is the Democratic nominee AND US CITIZENS in Florida and Mich. are just **** out of luck this time.
What an election year!
PS:
Disregard what you hear in the media. The National Convention will go as smoothly as did the Arizona State Convention.
Here’s what I’m wondering; will McCain have what it takes to pick the man he really wants as his running mate and make political history???
[…] Part two of the endgame is Sunday, with the biggest remaining prize of the primary season taking place in Puerto Rico. No, they can’t vote for president, but they sure can help pick the nominee, as was already discussed on PD. […]