Comments on: Don’t expect Hillary to give up graciously http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/ Latest National PD Composite: Romney 41.9% - Gingrich 24.5% - Santorum 21.0% - Paul 12.6% Sun, 08 Jan 2012 08:10:00 -0500 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: « PoliticalDerby.com http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/comment-page-1/#comment-17198 « PoliticalDerby.com Tue, 04 Mar 2008 22:14:00 +0000 http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/#comment-17198 [...] showcased her flawed strategy in trying to secure the nomination. Which she has lost. Though she won’t admit it. But she [...] [...] showcased her flawed strategy in trying to secure the nomination. Which she has lost. Though she won’t admit it. But she [...]

]]> By: Toby http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/comment-page-1/#comment-17144 Toby Tue, 04 Mar 2008 01:12:52 +0000 http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/#comment-17144 well, you can all (gasp) thank Hillary Clinton for helping erode whatever advantage Obama may have as she throws kitchen sinks through every wall of her glass house trying to go scorched earth on him well, you can all (gasp) thank Hillary Clinton for helping erode whatever advantage Obama may have as she throws kitchen sinks through every wall of her glass house trying to go scorched earth on him

]]> By: Troy La Mana http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/comment-page-1/#comment-17113 Troy La Mana Mon, 03 Mar 2008 16:56:25 +0000 http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/#comment-17113 Not only has Obama sewed up the nomination he has a huge lead to winning the election. With the uber-large coffers on the Dem side, it's an uphill climb for McCain. Sweet Justice if you think about it. Not only has Obama sewed up the nomination he has a huge lead to winning the election. With the uber-large coffers on the Dem side, it’s an uphill climb for McCain.

Sweet Justice if you think about it.

]]> By: David Kaiser http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/comment-page-1/#comment-17107 David Kaiser Mon, 03 Mar 2008 16:38:41 +0000 http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/#comment-17107 Gold medal to Toby for the "Delegate Math" competition. Gold medal to Toby for the “Delegate Math” competition.

]]> By: Toby http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/comment-page-1/#comment-17087 Toby Mon, 03 Mar 2008 04:26:54 +0000 http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/#comment-17087 now I need some white wine to sip on to calm down, but I need to drive my Prius home now I need some white wine to sip on to calm down, but I need to drive my Prius home

]]> By: RedStateEddio http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/comment-page-1/#comment-17076 RedStateEddio Sun, 02 Mar 2008 23:07:50 +0000 http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/#comment-17076 Toby, I just spent 10 hours working on my taxes yesterday, and I don't think I did as much math as you did in that post. Maybe you had one too many lattes before posting. ;-) Toby, I just spent 10 hours working on my taxes yesterday, and I don’t think I did as much math as you did in that post. Maybe you had one too many lattes before posting. ;-)

]]> By: Toby http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/comment-page-1/#comment-17066 Toby Sun, 02 Mar 2008 20:22:11 +0000 http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/#comment-17066 but, Obama supporters are just dumb college kids. I almost spilled my latte on my birkenstocks typing that but, Obama supporters are just dumb college kids. I almost spilled my latte on my birkenstocks typing that

]]> By: Toby http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/comment-page-1/#comment-17065 Toby Sun, 02 Mar 2008 20:21:42 +0000 http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/#comment-17065 the delegate math is impossible NOW, regardless of what happens in Texas and Ohio. She's behind by 155 pledged delegates. Including March 4, there are 931 pledged delegates left available. Because of proportional allotment, it means that she has to get 543 of the remaining delegates to Obama's 388 just to tie the thing up. That means that she has to average 58-42 over Obama over the rest of the states. That's already going to be difficult enough. Now assume that the polls hold, and he barely wins in Texas, and she barely wins in Ohio, and they both have good days in Vermont and Rhodes Island, respectively. Let's assume that March 4 is basically a wash, and Obama retains a 150 or so pledged delegate lead. Then there are 561 pledged delegates remaining up for grabs. With a 150 deficit, Clinton would have to win 358 delegates to Obama's 203, again- just to tie among the remaining states. That would be an average 63-37 in favor of Clinton over the rest of the states. Now, let's notice that of those 561 delegates remaining, nearly a quarter (91 of them) come from North Carolina, where Obama is almost certain to win, and win big. But, for the benefit of the doubt, let's only give him a 55-45 win there in delegates, splitting them 51-40 in favor of Obama. That would mean that he'd have an approximately 166 delegate lead with 470 up for grabs. This would mean that if Obama has a MODEST victory in North Carolina, the rest of the states will have to average 67-33 for Clinton, so she can get 318 delegates to his 152. Even a 70-30 Pennsylvania win for her would only net her 61 delegates. Even if this essentially impossible task were achieved, she would still be behind by 105 delegates (ignoring the other states not mentioned already) meaning that she'd need to STILL average (out of the 319 remaining)66% in the rest of the states in order to win 212 delegates to Obama's 107. It's impossible for her to win. It's essentially impossible (even considering BEST case scenarios for her where she's strong and close wins for Obama where he's expected to win) for her to pull within a hundred delegates. Since the polls in Pennsylvania are closing up fast, and the polls in NC are much better for Obama than the win I gave him (and the polls always underguess his actual support) this best case scenario for Clinton means its impossible for her to even get close at this point. And this is even ignoring Obama's obvious strengths in Wyoming and other states. And the party won't let her fight this out. They're only humoring her now, giving her a last gasp so she can't claim they didn't let her try before they shut her down. There have already been warning shots across her bow. The Dodd endorsement talking about negative campaigning and party unity. The superdelegate stream that is becoming a torrent as Obama picks up at least 30 and Clinton loses six. Bill Richardson talking today about how the party will step in and end the process in favor of whoever has a delegate lead after Tuesday (for Clinton to win on THOSE terms, it would have to be a 71-29 average over all four states just to tie it up on March 4) will be the nominee. You will see the superdelegates stepping in to enforce the will of the people and end the negative campaigning so Obama can start running against McCain and not worrying about Hillary. The nomination race is over, and the party is trying to figure out the best way to tell Hillary. They're giving her March 4 to hopefully help her realize on her own that its over- but they will not let her ruin the party's chances in November to stroke her ego. the delegate math is impossible NOW, regardless of what happens in Texas and Ohio. She’s behind by 155 pledged delegates. Including March 4, there are 931 pledged delegates left available. Because of proportional allotment, it means that she has to get 543 of the remaining delegates to Obama’s 388 just to tie the thing up. That means that she has to average 58-42 over Obama over the rest of the states. That’s already going to be difficult enough. Now assume that the polls hold, and he barely wins in Texas, and she barely wins in Ohio, and they both have good days in Vermont and Rhodes Island, respectively. Let’s assume that March 4 is basically a wash, and Obama retains a 150 or so pledged delegate lead. Then there are 561 pledged delegates remaining up for grabs. With a 150 deficit, Clinton would have to win 358 delegates to Obama’s 203, again- just to tie among the remaining states. That would be an average 63-37 in favor of Clinton over the rest of the states. Now, let’s notice that of those 561 delegates remaining, nearly a quarter (91 of them) come from North Carolina, where Obama is almost certain to win, and win big. But, for the benefit of the doubt, let’s only give him a 55-45 win there in delegates, splitting them 51-40 in favor of Obama. That would mean that he’d have an approximately 166 delegate lead with 470 up for grabs. This would mean that if Obama has a MODEST victory in North Carolina, the rest of the states will have to average 67-33 for Clinton, so she can get 318 delegates to his 152. Even a 70-30 Pennsylvania win for her would only net her 61 delegates. Even if this essentially impossible task were achieved, she would still be behind by 105 delegates (ignoring the other states not mentioned already) meaning that she’d need to STILL average (out of the 319 remaining)66% in the rest of the states in order to win 212 delegates to Obama’s 107.

It’s impossible for her to win. It’s essentially impossible (even considering BEST case scenarios for her where she’s strong and close wins for Obama where he’s expected to win) for her to pull within a hundred delegates. Since the polls in Pennsylvania are closing up fast, and the polls in NC are much better for Obama than the win I gave him (and the polls always underguess his actual support) this best case scenario for Clinton means its impossible for her to even get close at this point. And this is even ignoring Obama’s obvious strengths in Wyoming and other states.

And the party won’t let her fight this out. They’re only humoring her now, giving her a last gasp so she can’t claim they didn’t let her try before they shut her down. There have already been warning shots across her bow. The Dodd endorsement talking about negative campaigning and party unity. The superdelegate stream that is becoming a torrent as Obama picks up at least 30 and Clinton loses six. Bill Richardson talking today about how the party will step in and end the process in favor of whoever has a delegate lead after Tuesday (for Clinton to win on THOSE terms, it would have to be a 71-29 average over all four states just to tie it up on March 4) will be the nominee. You will see the superdelegates stepping in to enforce the will of the people and end the negative campaigning so Obama can start running against McCain and not worrying about Hillary. The nomination race is over, and the party is trying to figure out the best way to tell Hillary. They’re giving her March 4 to hopefully help her realize on her own that its over- but they will not let her ruin the party’s chances in November to stroke her ego.

]]> By: Pdiddy http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/comment-page-1/#comment-17058 Pdiddy Sun, 02 Mar 2008 17:36:09 +0000 http://politicalderby.com/2008/03/02/dont-expect-hillary-to-give-up-graciously/#comment-17058 sweet irony, bill stained the first part of the Clinton legacy, Hillary is staining the end sweet irony, bill stained the first part of the Clinton legacy, Hillary is staining the end

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