Don’t expect Hillary to give up graciously

By Contributor Archive

Filed Under Race for White House 2008 on Mar 2 

After Hilliradicals began freaking out over the idea that Clinton might have to concede to Obama if she failed to win Texas and Ohio, the assessment was tweaked to suggest that if Hillary won those two states then she would be the Democratic nominee. Subtle change in phraseology, but one which implied, however erroneously, that Hillary is still the de-facto choice. The Clinton campaign has been selling every contest as the make-or-break, and every time she loses, the all-important primary/caucus instead becomes the next one. Her desperation scare tactics don’t seem to be working, and she seems to be losing every point in debates and ads (ignorant spin tends not to work as well when there are logical/common sense counterarguments).

As Hillary’s sees her once large leads in Texas and Ohio disappear, her campaign has taken to saying that Pennsylvania – a dreadfully long 6 weeks from now – is really the important contest. And not only that, but they are even threatening to sue in Texas, because of how unfair the primary/caucus system is to, apparently, the less popular candidate. Obama still has momentum, he continues to gain popularity, and every day it is becoming more clear that he will be the nominee, but this battle remains far from over because Hillary will not bow out gracefully. Whether it takes back-door convention deals, threats to superdelegates, or lawsuits to throw out Texas results and replace them with discarded Florida and Michigan results, the smart money is that Hillary will continue to fight tooth-and-nail for the nomination. Many fear it will destroy the party – it won’t, though it may cost them an election – but from the Clinton perspective, that is irrelevant, because no matter how much they keep insisting that something is about you, they know and you know: it’s about them.

Comments

9 Comments

  1. Pdiddy on 02.03.2008 at 12:36 (Reply)

    sweet irony, bill stained the first part of the Clinton legacy, Hillary is staining the end

  2. Toby on 02.03.2008 at 15:21 (Reply)

    the delegate math is impossible NOW, regardless of what happens in Texas and Ohio. She’s behind by 155 pledged delegates. Including March 4, there are 931 pledged delegates left available. Because of proportional allotment, it means that she has to get 543 of the remaining delegates to Obama’s 388 just to tie the thing up. That means that she has to average 58-42 over Obama over the rest of the states. That’s already going to be difficult enough. Now assume that the polls hold, and he barely wins in Texas, and she barely wins in Ohio, and they both have good days in Vermont and Rhodes Island, respectively. Let’s assume that March 4 is basically a wash, and Obama retains a 150 or so pledged delegate lead. Then there are 561 pledged delegates remaining up for grabs. With a 150 deficit, Clinton would have to win 358 delegates to Obama’s 203, again- just to tie among the remaining states. That would be an average 63-37 in favor of Clinton over the rest of the states. Now, let’s notice that of those 561 delegates remaining, nearly a quarter (91 of them) come from North Carolina, where Obama is almost certain to win, and win big. But, for the benefit of the doubt, let’s only give him a 55-45 win there in delegates, splitting them 51-40 in favor of Obama. That would mean that he’d have an approximately 166 delegate lead with 470 up for grabs. This would mean that if Obama has a MODEST victory in North Carolina, the rest of the states will have to average 67-33 for Clinton, so she can get 318 delegates to his 152. Even a 70-30 Pennsylvania win for her would only net her 61 delegates. Even if this essentially impossible task were achieved, she would still be behind by 105 delegates (ignoring the other states not mentioned already) meaning that she’d need to STILL average (out of the 319 remaining)66% in the rest of the states in order to win 212 delegates to Obama’s 107.

    It’s impossible for her to win. It’s essentially impossible (even considering BEST case scenarios for her where she’s strong and close wins for Obama where he’s expected to win) for her to pull within a hundred delegates. Since the polls in Pennsylvania are closing up fast, and the polls in NC are much better for Obama than the win I gave him (and the polls always underguess his actual support) this best case scenario for Clinton means its impossible for her to even get close at this point. And this is even ignoring Obama’s obvious strengths in Wyoming and other states.

    And the party won’t let her fight this out. They’re only humoring her now, giving her a last gasp so she can’t claim they didn’t let her try before they shut her down. There have already been warning shots across her bow. The Dodd endorsement talking about negative campaigning and party unity. The superdelegate stream that is becoming a torrent as Obama picks up at least 30 and Clinton loses six. Bill Richardson talking today about how the party will step in and end the process in favor of whoever has a delegate lead after Tuesday (for Clinton to win on THOSE terms, it would have to be a 71-29 average over all four states just to tie it up on March 4) will be the nominee. You will see the superdelegates stepping in to enforce the will of the people and end the negative campaigning so Obama can start running against McCain and not worrying about Hillary. The nomination race is over, and the party is trying to figure out the best way to tell Hillary. They’re giving her March 4 to hopefully help her realize on her own that its over- but they will not let her ruin the party’s chances in November to stroke her ego.

  3. Toby on 02.03.2008 at 15:22 (Reply)

    but, Obama supporters are just dumb college kids. I almost spilled my latte on my birkenstocks typing that

  4. RedStateEddio on 02.03.2008 at 18:07 (Reply)

    Toby, I just spent 10 hours working on my taxes yesterday, and I don’t think I did as much math as you did in that post. Maybe you had one too many lattes before posting. ;-)

  5. Toby on 02.03.2008 at 23:26 (Reply)

    now I need some white wine to sip on to calm down, but I need to drive my Prius home

  6. David Kaiser on 03.03.2008 at 11:38 (Reply)

    Gold medal to Toby for the “Delegate Math” competition.

  7. Troy La Mana on 03.03.2008 at 11:56 (Reply)

    Not only has Obama sewed up the nomination he has a huge lead to winning the election. With the uber-large coffers on the Dem side, it’s an uphill climb for McCain.

    Sweet Justice if you think about it.

  8. Toby on 03.03.2008 at 20:12 (Reply)

    well, you can all (gasp) thank Hillary Clinton for helping erode whatever advantage Obama may have as she throws kitchen sinks through every wall of her glass house trying to go scorched earth on him

  9. « PoliticalDerby.com on 04.03.2008 at 17:14

    [...] showcased her flawed strategy in trying to secure the nomination. Which she has lost. Though she won’t admit it. But she [...]

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