Barack Obama won. He did surprisingly well. The polling in the next place to vote showed him with double digit leads. And considering his momentum, a decisive victory was imminent. Then he lost New Hampshire. And momentum. Is recent history about to repeat itself?

The backdrop looks suspiciously like it did coming out of Iowa: Obama had just gotten a big win, the New Hampshire polls were saying he was a lock to win there, especially given all the, gulp, M-word. After his weekend sweep of Hillary, Obama’s momentum is back, and Rasmussen is reporting 18 and 26 point leads for Obama in Virginia and Maryland, respectively. All good signs to be sure, but it is eerily similar to what preceded an unexpected Hillary win.

Are the pollsters overstating Obama’s reach, perhaps as a result of his supporters generally being more vocal than Hillary’s? Could the phenomenon and hype not translate into as many votes as expected? (Insert Ron Paul reference.) Sure, everything is coming up Obama today, but don’t be too surprised if you’re surprised tomorrow.

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