I did some number crunching, and just how much of a role the early balloting could be in Florida is complected, but it really does appear it will be a major factor.

It all comes down to turnout. With heavy turnout expected, we could see as many as 2 million votes cast for today’s primary and if that number is reached, nearly a quarter of that number would have voted early.

There are approximately 3.8 million registered Republicans in the Sunshine State. There were a reported 474,000 or so early/absentee ballots cast by registered Republicans. How much of a role these play all comes down to the turnout among the rest of those GOPers who had not cast a vote yet.

So what kind of turnout should we expect?

The last time there was a contested GOP primary in Florida was 2000 and turnout was 25%. Turnout in New Hampshire and South Carolina in 2008 was 53% and 40% respectively. With the state being so vital, and the campaigns running amok in the state, I would say turnout of 50 to 55% is in the cards.

That is roughly 2 million votes, and nearly 25% of them have been cast, some well before the official primary today.

It is going to be VERY interesting this evening.

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