Just how big the early voting could be in Florida

By David Kaiser, Editor

Filed Under Race for White House 2008 on Jan 29 

I did some number crunching, and just how much of a role the early balloting could be in Florida is complected, but it really does appear it will be a major factor.

It all comes down to turnout. With heavy turnout expected, we could see as many as 2 million votes cast for today’s primary and if that number is reached, nearly a quarter of that number would have voted early.

There are approximately 3.8 million registered Republicans in the Sunshine State. There were a reported 474,000 or so early/absentee ballots cast by registered Republicans. How much of a role these play all comes down to the turnout among the rest of those GOPers who had not cast a vote yet.

So what kind of turnout should we expect?

The last time there was a contested GOP primary in Florida was 2000 and turnout was 25%. Turnout in New Hampshire and South Carolina in 2008 was 53% and 40% respectively. With the state being so vital, and the campaigns running amok in the state, I would say turnout of 50 to 55% is in the cards.

That is roughly 2 million votes, and nearly 25% of them have been cast, some well before the official primary today.

It is going to be VERY interesting this evening.

Comments

  • David Kaiser

    With 99% of the vote tallied, there were 1.92 million ballots cast in the GOP primary, which is about 50% turnout. Pretty darn close to 2 million!

  • NewYorkStateConservative

    I’m talking about overall, not just in Florida

  • Troy La Mana

    Well he isn’t but I’m hoping that Huck can catch Rudy and push him to third.

  • NewYorkStateConservative

    I wonder how Rudy supporters feel about finishing the race behind Ron Paul?

  • Troy La Mana

    Rudy may pull out a 3rd place finish but it won’t be enough. This strategy was malformed and badly managed. Rudy is toast.

  • David Kaiser

    I think Teddy would be more of an advisor as opposed to a cabinet member.

    I also saw something interesting in that there are at least some people that voted for Fred Thompson with their early ballot, and while I’m sure it is not as many as Rudy, I think that can only hurt Romney and Huckabee.

  • http://www.itsfirstfriday.com Phillip McCracken

    It would turn into such an interesting race if Rudy won or came in a close second.

  • Dominick08

    A good and interesting analysis. I agree early voting is going to be key. Many are assuming the early voting will benefit Rudy. However, I’m not so sure. Those who say this premise it on the fact that Rudy has devoted so much time to campaigning in Florida.

    However, time doesn’t equal votes. There also is this conventional wisdom that because so many Floridians are transplanted New Yorkers, this also will help Rudy, especially with the early voters. The problem with this is that analysis shows the majority of these “transplants” are Democrats.

    Further, Rudy isn’t even leading in the Ny polls. It’s a false assumption that he is really that popular in his home state. Another NYC major, John Lindsey, believed just like Rudy does that “Since I had the second-hardest political job in the U.S. (mayor of NYC) I’m the logical choice for President. Lindsey, a moderate Democrat like Rudy,(yes I know he is running as a Republican)went down in flames fast, just like Rudy is doing.

    Will be interesting to see how–and who–these early voters influence the race tonight.

    PS: You may be on to something regarding your Ben Nelson comment as a potential Obama VP choice David. Last night at the State of the Union it was Obama, Teddy K and Ben Nelson, sitting close and together. Lots of talking, smiles, ect. Maybe Obama is getting his ducks in a row already. Nelson as VP, Teddy as Sec. of State?