Welcome to the latest edition of PoliticalDerby.com’s 2008 Power Rankings, the original tracking service in the current race for the White House. The rankings are updated as circumstances warrant and are compiled by our Editor and contributors using wire reports, polls, campaign staffer scuttlebutt and confidential tips.

The GOP Horse Tip Sheet
Rankings last updated: January 22, 2008
Power Ranking The Horse Mug Shot Momentum The Tip Sheet
1 John McCain McCain Up McCain avenged his blood-soaked loss in South Carolina in 2000 and is trying to seize the mantle of front runner in a GOP race that has more personalities than the hypothetical offspring of Rosanne Barr and Rosie O’Donnell. Mac needs to win in Florida, the first closed primary of the season for the ‘Pubs, if he wants to legitimize his ability to win the nomination.
2 Mitt Romney Romney Up Mitt has reinvented his campaign faster than he was able to reinvent his stands on social issues. Going away from the “conservative” candidate to trumpet himself as the “business” candidate served him well in victories in Michigan and Nevada, both of which are struggling economically. Mitt has more delegates than any other GOPer, but his wins thus far aren’t nearly as sexy as NH, IA and SC. A win in Florida? Now that would be sexilicious, and it would make Romney the undisputed front runner.
3 Mike Huckabee Huckabee Down Huck gets credit for running a strong campaign with the loose change he’s scraped from the couches of the Holiday Inn Expresses he frequents as he canvasses for the evangelical vote. But he has yet to prove his ability to win anything beyond his base, and statements about amending the Constitution “so it’s in God’s standards” probably won’t help much. He’s fading fast in Florida. Where can he win again?
4 Ron Paul Paul Up Ron Paul finished second in Nevada. Yippee? He was the only candidate besides Romney to run ads and barely squeezed past McCain to take second. But a silver is a silver, and Paul continues to have a pretty good budget to work with, though it’s unclear where he’s spending it. If the GOP race stays undecided, and Paul somehow, some way fails to pull off winning the nomination, could he have potential to put someone over the top? Or would he even consider endorsing someone he’s so ideologically opposed to?
5 Rudy Giuliani Giuliani Down Despite doing everything in Florida but don Mickey Mouse ears and ride on a float to the Epcot Center, Rudy is on the verge of a historical achievement – the worst-run campaign for president in the history of ever. Google “worst Presidential campaigns” and you’ll get John Connelly and Phil Gramm. But Giuliani’s could end up worse then both of theirs. Combined. Times ten. Plus infinity. Plus one.
10 Fred Thompson Fred Thompson Down Congratulations Fred, you finished third in your must-win state, and it was your best showing thus far. Unlike most failed campaigns where blame is spread evenly around the horse, staff, consultants, and media advisors, this one is all Fred. This campaign goes down as the biggest bust out of Tennessee since Dolly Parton.

(Thanks, Fred, for dropping out an hour after our new rankings debuted. Didn’t you get my voicemail?)


The DEM Horse Tip Sheet
Rankings last updated: January 22, 2008
Power Ranking The Horse Momentum The Tip Sheet
1
(tied)
Hillary Clinton Clinton Down The Clinton spinning machine is on double-cycle now, lowering expectations in Nevada to then boast about a major victory where just a month earlier she had a 20-point lead. The question remains, can the Hill/Bill Good Cop/Bad Cop routine continue to lure Barack into Thunderdome, where their Master Blaster routine works so well for them?
1
(tied)
Barack Obama Obama Down Ever since his impressive victory in Iowa, Obama has endured a campaign against not one, but two Clintons. Team Billary has succeeded in baiting Obama into the mud pit more and more in the last couple of weeks, right where they are comfortable. But with the Iowa glow long faded into the hangover of a campaign battle, Obama needs a strong win in South Carolina for a boost heading into Tsunami Tuesday.
10 John Edwards Edwards Down Poor Edwards. This guy never stopped running after losing out to Emily Kachowski for third grade class president, and he still can’t get it right.He’s trying to stay above the fray and look like the populist candidate, but when you are barely polling double digits in your birth state against a New York carpetbagger and a freshman senator from the Midwest, it’s time for democrats to say, “Good night, John Boy.”
The rankings may not be reprinted or quoted in any form without attribution to PoliticalDerby.com.


Comments

  • george schumer

    It’s not so much Rudy’s strategy that was poor, but more the way the campaign jig-saw puzzle was set up. Where should Rudy have made his stand? Months of flesh-pressing in Iowa, only to run into, and be embarrassed by, the Huckabee evangelical buzz-saw, or the Romney TV blitz? A pro-choice candidate choosing a 60 percent evangelical state to begin the campaign?

    New Hampshire, to go against the loved McCain, and the neighboring Gov. Romney?

    South Carolina, where the hero McCain and Pastor Huck had solid constituencies, while Romney again had the $$ to saturate TV?

    Rudy could never out-military the pro-surge/war hero McCain, never outspend mucho-bux Romney, and could never dent Huck’s evangelical base.

    Then we find out NYC is paying the security tab for his affair with Judith – ewww! In
    retrospect, it was pretty hopeless from the get-go.

  • Huck08

    I think the point is he looked like he didn’t care. Couldn’t he have made token appearances in those states? Like Huck in NH and Michigan? I think the resentment toward Rudy is that he’s said, “to heck with all those early voting states, I don’t need your support to win…” And that perception is killing him.

  • Troy La Mana

    I 100% approve of your rankings today.

    Now if Paul can pull off a few more 2nd place finishes it would solidify his chance of effecting the party platform at the convention.

  • Huck08

    Oh, and the Fred’s the biggest TN bust since Dolly Parton? Classic.

  • http://capecodporcupine.blogspot.com Peter Porcupine

    I also agree with the current rankings.

    But if Mitt wins FL – the FIRST winner take all GOP state with 57 delegates – then McCain is expressed to AZ.

  • RobA

    The rankings are pretty solid this time. Don’t know if I would put Paul ahead of Rudy – as his Mickey ears at least have potential (very far-fetched, but still possible) of landing him in the White House. But Paul has more votes at this point, so we’ll give him his due.

    Also, don’t you think you ranked Edwards a little too high? I think Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Chelsea Clinton, Stephen Colbert, and Al Sharpton all have a better shot at winning the Dem nomination.

  • Phil

    No matter who gets it, FL is a huge deal. My question is, who drops out if they don’t get it?

    I’m guessing just Thomposon (if he’s not gone before then) and Giuliani – despite Huckabee’s cashflow troubles, he’s doing well enough that not sticking it out until Super Tuesday doesn’t make much sense. He’d still be able to wield a decent bit of influence if he captures many delegates from the Bible belt.

  • David Kaiser

    RobA – didn’t you notice the “10″ as his ranking number?

  • RobA

    Yes I did. I just think Edwards’ candidacy is a complete joke that belongs in triple digits. I hope he stays in, spends a ton of his own $$, cuts a desperate deal at the convention, and walks away empty-handed after a GOP win.

  • Dominick08

    Looks like you can remove Fred Thompson from last place. He’s out. What a completely horrible campaign he ran. Just no “there” “there.”

    Over in the forums I basically predicted–as a few others did–his arc following his long-anticipates formal announcement: Formally annouce finally, get a big bounce in the polls which lasts a few weeks, then downhill from there.

    I must say, the drop was even faster and deeper than I imagined. Thompson just never seemed to realize that campaigning for a party nomination for President is actually a full-time job. Was it his wife who really talked him into it. Or is he just that lame?

    Anyway, imagine he will endorse McCain. Of course, will anybody hear him; or care?

  • Dominick08

    To paraphrase an ancient Chinese saying: “We live in interesting political horserace times.

    How the rankings have changed. In the GOP, nearly everybody had ruled that old warhorse John McCain out a few months ago, when his campaign ran out of money and he conducted those massive staff layoffs.

    He said he would operate a “lean and mean” campaign, going door-to-door himself if need be. Most laughed. It worked. McCain is now at the top of the power rankings, proving that even seasoned horses can still run hard. And the hay is coming in to feed his campaign warchest.

    And Ron Paul, scorned by so many as a mere Libertarian pony, now is in front of show horse Rudy G., who most had as number one just a few short months ago. With Fred T dropping out, Rudy now dwells at the bottom. Do I see a glue factory in Fred’s future, by the way. And Rudy, will he stop the “I am Ronald Reagan incarmate” “horsing around” and get real?

    And Mike Chuckabee (Chuck Norris -plus- Mike Huckabee=Chuckabee), a solid number one just a few weeks ago, is now a lowely number three–with many saying if he doesn’t win South Carolina his days are numbered. We know Huckabee can run hard, but in many ways he’s a mere pony compared to McCain.

    His picture-partner–and number one supporter–Chuck Norris can’t even muster a better reason as to why he’s for Mike–other than McCain is old and might die in office–as an explanation for his support for Mike. Chuck says a vote for McCain means whomever is VP will become President. Guess he isn’t thinking about Mike as a potential VP running mate for McCain. But, that’s a horse of a different color.

    Over on the Dem side, Hillary is now number one. Like a seasoned female horse in an all male horserace, she’s “found her voice,” and has inched her way ahead of the young, hard running, thoroughbred Barack Obama. Her trainer, Bill Clinton, worked overtime–like all good trainers do–to ensure his horse would pull ahead.

    Obama remains a close second however, and we might find him back at number one if he wins big in SC. (Big being by 8-10 points at least.) But Hillary seems far from the glue factory, as evidenced by her performance in last night’s debate.

    Speaking of the glue factory, it’s no suprise Edwards remains in third. And he thanks pony Dennis Kucinich for staying in the race so that he doesn’t have to be in “last” place.

    Like a gelding in a race with thoroughbreds, Edwards runs hard, and performs well in debates, but just can’t get any traction. Placing a lagging third in the state of his birth, South Carolina, will only lend further credience to that gelding image. Note to Fred T: save a stall at the glue factory for John.

    So there you have it; a very different snapshot in the power rankings than just weeks ago. This horserace is so fluid, that this snapshot could change just as dramatically in a few weeks as it just did today.

    Romney can’t be ruled out…He will fuel his race with lots of green hay. If Rudy G. wins Florida–which I doubt–it’s a whole new ballgame. Perhaps its time for Rudy to put on the dress and heels and just be himself. After all, it worked for J Edgar Hoover for decades.

    And, will Chuck Norris attempt to induce a heart attack in John McCain by challenging him to spend 30 minutes on one of those Flex exercise machines he hawks on TV? Only camp “Chuckabee” knows that. (What’s with Norris’ wife? She inches herself into every Mike Huckabee photo op? She is the Selig of campaign 2008. Is this a plan to get the men who are into blondes vote?)

    Meanwhile, its neck-and-neck between Hillary and Obama. Time for Barack to bring Oparah back we think. She would remind Dem woman voters that “not all” woman are for Hillary. Oprah also out “Bill Clintoned” Bill in Iowa.(Oprah runs harder than all of the horses in this race. They’re lucky she isn’t running. As an African American woman she would also solve the Democratic party rank-and-file dilema of whether to nominate the first woman or the first black man for President.)

    But I digress…

    Further…will Bill Clinton implode, have a complete anger meltdown in defense of his wife–and in anger towards Obama? Will that nose turn bright right red in anger one two many times?

    This is real in that if voters percieve BIll, as the husband, doing all the defending of Hillary, they just might wonder if he will need to do the same if pesky terrorists attact, or Putin insults Hillary, or if the press disses her as President…and on and on.

    But enough horsing around…Lunch is over, and it’s time to get back to work. Obama and Romney had better do the same.

    Stay tuned!

  • Jason Wright, Editor

    Dominick08: Brilliantly said. You win the Gold Medal (® Mitt Romney, all rights reserved, 2008) for number of properly-used horse race metaphors. If we had a payroll you’d be on it.

    Phil: Good question about FL. I don’t think Rudy drops out, though he’ll effectively be finished. I’m not why he wouldn’t go one more week to Super Tuesday, but who knows. He might not want to further embarrass himself. If McCain loses he probably doesn’t drop out until Feb 5th. He’s looking good in quite a few of the 22 states.

    RobA: You forgot Webb Hubbell on your list of folks more likely to get the nomination.

    Huck08: Glad you like the bust comment. With risky jokes like that it’s either boom or bust.

  • Lazlo

    “Is this a plan to get the men who are into blondes vote?”

    You are not a man if you are not into blondes…and brunettes and redheads etc.

  • http://dirtyelection.com eddy

    I agree with your rankings but I do not believe that Hillary’s star is rising while Obama’s declines. Ultimately, I do not think Obama can win because American voters time and again vote for the person most likely to lead and not the one with the best character or plans. (Bush in 2004 had equally as many flaws as Kerry) I believe that this year will be no exception. The public loathes Hillary more than any candidate yet she is at the same time the most qualified to lead.

    If Obama stands a chance he needs to show that he can take on team Billary and show the public that Bill and Hillary are abusing their power and no more qualified to lead then he is. Obama is fighting an uphill battle probably one of the toughest campaigns ever and even if he loses it will strengthen his abilities to run in the future.

    I would like to trackback to your poll, is there a URL for that?

  • Lazlo

    “will Bill Clinton implode”

    Gary Null (super-genius) predicted Bill’s health breakdown and was right. He thinks Bill will take a permanent dirt nap within three years.

    This is why Hillary has been pegged to win this election. (1) She needs Bill to make her win seem realistic. (2) When Bill dies, she will evolve into Queen status. It will seem as if God has smited the adulterous husband and rewarded the devoted wife with divine ruling authority.

    And as the USA morphs into the North American Union…Hillary will assume her divine ruling position.

    Bwahahhahahahahahhahaa…yes, I just kidding around.

  • Phil

    One other question of note – FL is the next state being payed attention to, but isn’t Louisiana’s Caucus tonight?
    As I understand it from the Wikipedia entry, 21 of their delegates will be selected here, not bound by the primary results, and they’ll later choose 20 more, who will be bound only if a candidate gets a majority in the primary.. so, especially if the field remains split enough that 2/9 only sees a plurality, tonight could decide how Louisiana goes, apart from the 6 spots reserved for the party delegates.

  • Dominick08

    Lazlo, a name right out of the Maltese Flacon. (Peter Laurie RIP.)

    In fact, this entire 2008 Presidential campaign has “potential death” all over it–both GOP and Dem.

    There’s Rudy G. with his tailpipe cancer; ditto for McCain and Thompson.

    Bill Cinton, who’s wife may be just a heartbeat away from being President, but who personally is just one heart-attack away from a bipartisan funeral.

    Then there is Elizabeth Edwards. Enough said.

    Romney and Obama seem to be the only two candidates with fairly high actuarial tables in their favor. Hillary’s are moderate. Ron Paul’s are short.

    But at least Dr. Paul is still in the race dispite his advanced age–The others(accepting Mitt of course)need him in case they collapse at an upcoming debate event.

  • David Kaiser

    Actually Dom, Lazlo was the last name of a character from from Casablanca. Ingrid Bergman’s (Ilsa Lund) husband was Victor Lazlo.

    Peter Lorre was in Casablanca and Maltese Falcon, but never played a character named Lazlo in either.

  • Troy La Mana

    “eddy,

    The public loathes Hillary more than any candidate yet she is at the same time the most qualified to lead.”

    The most qualified Democrat to lead is more like it. When you look at Obama and Hillary you see two people who are the most unqualified candidates in history. Combined they have 8 years in the Senate. Hillary is an idiot if she thinks being a wife to someone in power equals experience.

  • Lazlo

    My particular Lazlo is inspired by the character Lazlo Hollyfeld…the wise genius warning overconfident naive geniuses about how moralless entreprenuers abuse everything, especially overconfident naive geniuses…kinda like the Unabomber.

    http://www.okcupid.com/tests/describescore?testid=4806988756667489192&category=12

  • Alaina

    Don’t count Rudy out yet… Florida has been voting absentee for a couple weeks. The polls are now pointless with Fred dropping out and Huckabee “ignoring” (had to throw that in since it’s the perception Guiliani got for doing the same in the earlier states) Florida and focusing his attention elsewhere. Those votes have to go somewhere.

  • Troy La Mana

    Paul? Sorry, had to say it.

  • johnnyrepublican

    NOPE!!

    With huckabee and thompson gone, the conservatives will rally behind romney.

    McCain will lose with Giuliani because they will split the indepenant vote.

  • http://www.lannuairegrand.com sandrine

    I like your analysis and mannner of speaking, thank you for this interesting ticcket, it s always nice to visit this beautiful blog :)