AP calls Nevada for Romney, Paul holding slim lead for the silver

By David Kaiser, Editor

Filed Under Race for White House 2008 on Jan 19 

Mitt Romney apparently will win the Nevada caucus today as expected.

Romney’s success in Nevada comes as no surprise, specifically for the reasons put forward earlier today by Jason “Lee Corso” Wright. Perhaps he should have put on the mask of Romney’s mascot when he posted earlier today.

***UPDATE As of a bit before 2pm EST, Ron Paul holds a slim lead over John McCain for second place in Nevada.

Comments

  • Toby

    it’s nice that Paul will get a medal in at least one state in his failed campaign. He might even manage a gold in Alaska if he’s still in it. His chances are still about zero, thankfully

  • RobertW

    For Phil’s benefit, here are some states with “large” LDS populations per capita. I disclaim wither this data is accurate and only that I found it on http://www.adherents.com/largecom/com_lds.html purported to be from a study in 1990. All are west coast states with what I believe are small delegate states as well.

    Utah 71.76%
    Idaho 26.63
    Wyoming 10.10
    Nevada 7.41
    Arizona 5.45
    Montana 3.58
    Hawaii 3.46
    Oregon 3.15
    Washington 3.10
    Alaska 2.86

    Another site said this “Within the United States in Utah about sixty percent of the population are members. That puts the state population of Saints at just over 1.5 million members. In Idaho, fourteen percent of the population are LDS; in Nevada, nine percent; Arizona, six percent; Oregon, four percent; and the rest of the states are at about three percent.” but this was from a wiki so I have no way of verifying its accuracy. Reminds me of how much I love wikipedia.

  • Troy La Mana

    I meant climbs into 4th..

  • Troy La Mana

    With 99% reporting in the results:

    Romney 22,629 51%
    Paul 6,077 14%
    McCain 5,641 13%
    Huckabee 3,607 8%
    Thompson 3,518 8%
    Giuliani 1,907 4%
    Hunter 890 2% 0
    Tancredo 0 0% 0

    I’m happy with a 2nd place finish.

    Romney – 72 Delegates
    Huckabee – 24 Delegates
    McCain – 19 Delegates
    Thompson – 8 Delegates
    Paul – 6 Delegates
    Giuliani – 2 Delegates
    Hunter – 1 Delegate
    Tancredo – 0 Delegates

    If Thompson drops out after tonight as I expect then Paul climbs to third in the delegate count. I would say you have to stop ranking Rudy higher then Ron. Rudy’s stratagy just isn’t going to work. I don’t even think he will come in 3rd in Florida.

  • Phil

    David,

    You’re absolutely correct – even if none of his Mormon constituents turned out, or if they’d split their vote evenly among other candidates, Romney won. I’d hope no one is silly enough to think that my question is attempting to cast his victory in doubt!

    No, what I was asking is what other states Romney could expect to see additional support in, assuming a similar turnout. I think its reasonable to say that even half the percentage this support constituted (so, roughly 12.5%) could have a gigantic impact.. and I believe that may relate to Russ’ question as a possible explanation of why Nevada was written off by the other campaigns.

  • NewYorkStateConservative

    With 98% of precincts reporting, Paul is in second with 13%, beating out McCain by just under 200 votes.

  • David Kaiser

    Phil – that may be true, but event if you wipe out the Mormon vote, Romney still had twice as many votes as his next closest rival.

  • Phil

    Russ, that’s a really good question – and I think it should be paired with another. Mormons constitute about 7.5% of the Nevada population, but exit polls had them at 25% of participants, with 94% voting Romney. What other states have a Mormon population, say, greater than 5% whose successful mobilization could turn the tides for Romney?

    Note: Please don’t attempt to construe this as criticism of that vote. I’m sure if my religious beliefs had been continuously misrepresented and marginalized, I’d turn out for someone who shared them.

  • Phil

    *sigh* sorry, unescaped less than symbol…

    Should have been:

    Troy, I don’t doubt that Paul’s finish will not be seen as meaningful, but from all I’ve see, expectations are still for his results to be less than 15%. Given a close race with McCain, those behind 3rd place are going to be splitting an increasingly narrowed chunk of the pie, and I don’t think that will be blown off.

  • Russ

    I finally called one right! But not really. I thought Romney would edge out McCain by 5% or so, he won by 40%. I also said Paul would come in last, he is tied for second.

    Do the other candidates not understand that NV has more delegates than SC? And no matter who wins, McCain and Huck are going to split the delegates, where Romney will get a huge chunk of NV’s delegates. Why did no one else contest NV?

  • Phil

    Troy, I don’t doubt that Paul’s finish will not be seen as meaningful, but from all I’ve seen, expectations are still for his result to be that will be blown off.

  • Troy La Mana

    The press will blow off Paul coming in 2nd/3rd as not meaning anything.

    Watch for a massive attack on Mittens in the coming week.

  • Phil

    Well, regardless of where the see-saw between him and McCain ends, it doesn’t look at all likely that he’ll end below third.

    So, what does it mean for Thompson & Giuliani finishing behind Paul again, and for club newcomer Huckabee? Is this a case of:

    1 Consider the field narrowed

    2 Nevada is unimportant for national trends, ignore

    3The race is still wide open, and these results in any state to this point wouldn’t matter

    I personally hope for a narrow Paul victory, so that Nevada isn’t spun as having narrowed the “viable field” to McCain & Romney

  • Troy La Mana

    At one point I saw Paul only behind by 2 votes. It’s going up and down as the results come in.. could change again.

  • David Kaiser

    Except Paul’s lead has slipped and McCain has moved into second place by 3 points.

  • Troy La Mana

    And since a large part of Pauls campaign deals with domestic spending a big boon for him.. if he gets the press coverage to get the message out.

  • Troy La Mana

    Hey! I’m right about one Caucus/Primary!

    So what do you feel a 2nd place finish does for the Paul campaign?

  • Jason Wright, Editor

    Some interesting results on the GOP side: (from CNN)

    Most Important Issue:

    Economy – 38%
    Illegal Immigration – 34%
    Terrorism – 12%
    Iraq – 10%

    Top Issue: Economy:

    Romney – 47%
    Paul – 26%
    McCain – 12%
    Others – 15%

    (Romney also won Evangelicals voters by a “narrow margin” over Huckabee.)

  • Jason Wright, Editor

    That would be a nice finish for Paul, but let’s remember that only Romney and Paul were on TV here. This was a Paul target for a top three. Kudos to him if he gets it.

  • Jason Wright, Editor

    Romney’s mascot? Oh please. You heard some of the things I’ve said about him? I think I’ve been an equal opportunity offender. Though he does offend me less than others :)