2008 Power Rankings: January 16th, 2008
Posted on January 16th, 2008 at 9:42 am by Jason Wright, EditorWith another round of contests in Nevada and South Carolina this weekend, the Derby brain trust (oxymoron alert) has decided to release our first ever Quickie Rankings. Full rankings will come following this weekend’s crucial results.
Democrats
1. Obama: Yes Hillary “won” Michigan, but Obama was smart enough to keep his name off the ballot. Leads in SC by 10 points in the averages.
2. Hillary: Which advisor thought it was a good idea to set yourself up like that? 45% put their coats on, found their polling place, and essentially voted for someone else by choosing either Uncommitted (hmmm, wonder who they meant?) Gravel or Captain Crazy Pants.
3. Edwards: Wake us when you fail to embarrass yourself somewhere. Anywhere.
Republicans
1. Romney: After Michigan his advisors are baffled that he’s not referred to as the front runner. As he likes to say, “two golds, two silvers,” plus leads in delegate and raw vote count. Michigan saved his political career–at least for now.
2. McCain: Independents didn’t show for McCain in Michigan as they did in 2000, despite the fact that the GOP race was the only show in town and McCain ran very hard there. Looking strong in SC, leading in averages, will that change as new polls hit between now and Saturday?
3. Huckabee: There was a stunning and troubling result in Michigan for Camp Huck. Evangelicals supported Romney over Huckabee 34%-29%. And don’t buy the name ID argument, Huckabee won Iowa and millions in free advertising. Needs SC more than anyone but Fred.
4. Thompson: Currently fourth in the state (SC) he must win to continue. Or would a strong second buy him time?
5. Giuliani: Florida.
6. Paul: Still waiting for that online fervent firestorm of support to manifest itself in the real world.
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Question about the GOP delegates thing. Why does MSNBC list Huckabee as having 30 delegates from Iowa and therefore leading in the delegates count? I had the impression Iowa didn’t technically have delegates. What did I miss?
Your repartee might be too much to take.
How lucky for you that working at the Gas ‘n Zip gives you much free time to work PoliticalDerby.com.
If only you would share with the world your understanding of goverance design and collusive Party Politics of the post-Progressive Era, then the rest of us might get you.
How can you place Thompson and Giuliani ahead of Paul when Paul has been placing higher in the primary/caucus’s?
Rudy is ranked higher than Paul because he actually has a strategy (albeit a risky one) to win Florida and be very competitive in the Feb 5 states. Paul has no shot to win any primary in any state. His online support and fundraising ability has been impressive. But he simply has no chance to win the GOP nomination - Rudy still has a slim chance.
On the other hand, Fred is not going to win SC and will likely be forced to drop out. He’ll go back home and sit by the phone, waiting for a possible VP call.
Well now, and then there were three:
A Massachsetts Liberal,
An Arkansas pardon-granting whatever
And an open-border state friend of
Feingold and Kennedy.
My problem? I have no 3-sided coin!!!
How can I choose equally?
How can I choose one?
By what do I eliminate two
And tell which one to join?
Oooops! Sorry, did a leave three out?
Giuli, who scored less than all,
Thompson who scored lower than Paul,
And Paul with his core and no more?
Sorry, just not enough to shout about.
Whodat say bye to 3 and who to 3 be
After Huckabee stole a march on Mitt in Iowa, and Obama-leaning independents, thinking their guy was going to comfortably win in New Hampshire, cast thousands of ballots for McCain, Mitt has finally managed to neutralize the momentum factor, and get it to work for him instead of against him. He will win Nevada, which has 10 more delegates than South Carolina, in a walk. He will also do better than expected in South Carolina….after which he will go on to win the nomination. Your rankings reflect the reality of the race.
Paul has a better plan then Giuliani because Paul is winning more votes. That alone should place him higher. Giulliani is placing all his eggs in one basket and it is too little too late.
unfortunately, Paul is placing his one egg in too many baskets… by the end of this thing, far more people will have voted for Giuliani than Paul… the idea that Paul’s in any sort of good position is ludicrous
agreed, only a blinded by devotion Paul fan would argue he’s in a better position than rudy
Yes, rudy has done poorly, but they’ve met their own expectations so far, where Paul has failed
and where the heck is all his money being spent ? I’ve never seen a Paul commercial
The vote total says differently.
I have seen a Paul commercial (well actually I heard it on NFL network radio) and he leads all other candidates in my area by far (even though I’m in Rudy/Hillary country) when it comes to political yard signs. Still, even though I’m a Paul supporter, and will certainly vote for him on Super-Tuesday, I admit he has no chance at the nomination- although I will argue that his chances are close to Thompson’s (and Rudy’s if he gets blown out in Florida).
With this election, all predictions are shipped along with a truckload of salt. That being said…
The likeliest scenario is that by Feb 5 or shortly afterwards, Fred, Ron, and possible Rudy are done being factors in the race. Rudy’s probably the biggest surprise considering his early numbers both nationally and many states.
That leaves Huck, Mac, and Mitt. If Huck does not capture any more states or pull a strong 2nd, he’ll fade away quietly over time.
That leaves Mitt and Mac. Interestingly, they represent different wings of the Rep party–Mitt on the right-half, Mac on the left-half. So then the question becomes, which one does the party endorse?
Hmmmmm…
“Paul has a better plan then Giuliani because Paul is winning more votes.”
I’m not a fan of Rudy’s strategy and I think the fact that his national lead has evaporated is very telling. But the fact remains that a Rudy nomination and presidency actually remains a possibility. Paul has tons of $$ (much more than Rudy, I think), online support, and yes - I see the yard signs too. But it won’t amount to anything other than Paul losing all 50 primary/caucuses (along with countless comments on PD and every other political blog on the net about a candidate that can never win.)
Romney, McCain, Thompson, Rudy, Huckleberry, Paul…..The Fab Five? Hardly not. People in SC should vote for Fred and people in Florida (if they can figure out the voting machines) should vote for Rudy. That way, at least it would make the other states interesting.
My kingdom with a Newt, or a Pat Buchanan
Yes, Rudy is the wildcard at this point. Mac, Huck, and Mitt are safe at this time, pressing on through SD Tuesday. Rudy is the big Q - if he wins FLA, he’s in the lead or near the top. If he loses, he’s crippled; yet he could still pull off enough delegates on SD Tuesday to remain in the race. NJ, CA are all possibilities, and he’s either winning or tied in those places.
But boy, he gambled away a huge lead in the polls to roll the dice with FLA. What mistake. He could be neck-n-neck with any of the other top 3 if he had campaigned more aggressively in the other states.
Is Bill stable?
[When are we going to get a post to discuss that topic, Jason?]
Honestly, he is acting out of control, and a bit on the angry pit-bull side of things right now. He’s had a couple of run-ins with reporters and other officials over the last few weeks, and he seems to be one reactor short of a complete meltdown. He’s been snippy, curt, and even demeaning in some situations.
Is this any indication of what kind of “First Husband” he will be? As intrusive as Hillary was during Bill’s tenure (part of that 35 year experience thing), I think she’s NOTHING compared to the type of interference and meddling Bill is going to do in there.
I think he’s acting that way because he can see and smell the White House carpet again, and that lust for power is just overwhelming.
without a win thus far (and very weak performances in the early contests) is Fred really thinking he’s going to make up the 15 point deficit he’s showing against Huck and McCain in South Carolina? Is his organization that strong to shift opinion that dramatically in a week? I strongly suspect that he’s done for already… but I would like to see him win and throw the GOP into even more of a mess than its in already.
Come Super-Tuesday things’ll be sorted out…
NOT!
Three Dems and Six Republicans… or is it just Eight Candidates and a Doctor?
Here’s a question; Does Huckadoo have staying power? Can Fred find some excitement? Will Rudy win Florida or split it with Fred?
Ok, there are many questions…
While the Clinton and Edwards camps lead an organized, political so called “progressive critique” of Obama’s positive comments regarding Ronald Reagan, the Gipper’s son Ron and a number of former Reagan policy advisors and officials weigh-in on Obama’s side. You just have got to love it.It’s and interesting campaign season for sure.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/17/reagan-advisers-see-a-bit_n_82057.html