-
Search
-
Categories
- Congress
- Contests
- Domestic Policy
- Foreign Affairs
- Fundraising
- General
- Healthcare
- Humor
- Latest News
- Media Clips and Issues
- Michael Steele
- Military
- Outside the Track
- PD Housekeeping
- PD in the News
- Photo of the Day
- Policy
- Polls
- POTUS
- Power Rankings Only 2008
- Power Rankings Only 2012
- Race for White House 2008
- Race for White House 2012
- Races 2008
- Races 2010
- Races 2012
- Races Off-Year
- Rate that Ad
- Scandals
- SCOTUS
- Shameless Marketing
- Tea Party
-
Archives
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
The GOP primary in Michigan tomorrow represents Mitt Romney’s last chance to stay viable in the campaign for the Oval Office.
Sure, he still has a lot of money. And yes, he’s said he’s in it for the long haul. But realistically speaking, if he does not win in Michigan it is curtains for Mittens.
Romney had a tested and tried strategy going into January, which was to pour money and resources into Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan, win them, assume “The Big ‘Mo” and sweep to the nomination. Unfortunately for Romney, things did not break his way.
The evangelical vote swept Mike Huckabee to victory in Iowa and just days later, the independents of New Hampshire gave another victory in The Granite State to John McCain. Romney finished second in both and if you add up the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, he actually has gotten more votes then any other Republican candidate.
But the way that things roll in this nation’s wacky nomination process, second places finishes in two small states can be devastating in the area of conventional wisdom to a candidate who placed a strong emphasis on winning early and often.
It is still amazing that only about 875,000 out of about 150 million registered voters have casted their ballots and already several candidates have dropped out.
This is why the whole Iowa/New Hampshire thing needs to come to an end and either a national primary or a regional primary system needs to be put in place.
In any case, Romney’s last stand starts when the polls open in Michigan tomorrow morning.
Comments
20 Comments
Leave a comment
-
The Wire
- Sign up for The Wire
I agree that Romney is on life support if he does not win Michigan. But the one thing this campaign has shown is it’s completely up in the air at this point, and that can work to Mittens favor, even if he places second (again). I think its possible to keep moving (albeit limping along) after Michigan, but he does start to become marginal.
I think the guys who are in worse shape right now are Thompson and Guliani. Thompson because his campaign is generating the equivalent wattage of a 9v battery that’s about to become trash (or recycling material). He NEEDS to win in SC just to stay in the game. If he loses by some margin, I think he’s done.
Guliani also, because his FLA only strategy is basically making him irrelevant. I can understand avoiding a certain state to concentrate on others (like avoid IA and focus on NH and MI and SC), but to avoid IA AND NH AND MI AND SC just to focus on FLA is plain silly and amatuerish (at the electoral level).
Gee, maybe there was a reason why all the other candidates went to those states, even if they were not going to win the final tally. It’s called staying relevant…
Know what? They counted McCain out of the race by last September and, well… he wins New Hampshire.
This year; anything can happen.
The difference between now and then Bruce is that actual contests have happened.
That said, if Romney wins tomorrow, he’s right back in the race, so I’m certainly not counting him out yet.
Know what? Right now, Mitt romney has more delegates than any other candidate, including Democrats!
If Mitt finishes second in EVERY primary – and different challangers come in first in different states – he wins the nomination!
Romney is the only candidate whose candidacy isn’t contingent on fundraising and first place bumps – and if he says he’s in it for the long haul until Feb. 5 – he is. Nobody on his campaign is working without pay, or deferring bills until cash comes in – can other ’successful’ campaigns say that?
Don’t buy into the MSM do-or-die crap.
The problem with the regional or national primary idea is that a candidate such as Huckabee, without much money, has no chance. In Iowa or NH, someone can press the flesh and get the voters’ attention without million-dollar TV ads. Then, theoretically after some national attention and a good showing, the $$ start coming in.
My suggestion is a rotating schedule, giving NH and Iowa one last go in 2012, but from then on the first two states, one week apart and before the others, are determined by random draw.
That’s why I have a problem with Super Duper Tuesday. With no time to actually meet the candidates, people are voting based only on impressions and media angles. To me,that is not the best way to select a leader for running a country.
In fact, we’ve seen how She Who Must be Voted For’s lickability has sunk AFTER some people have spent more time with her. With slick PR as the only touchstone, she could come across as sweet and kind as Princess Di. But then she opens her mouth, and people like my wife just curl her lips and twist her head in a “that’s worse than fingernails on a chalkboard” kind of way.
I think the election process should be initially weighted to some of the smaller states simply because they’re irrelevant after the big 5 (NY, CA, FL, IL, TX) weigh in. But they should also not hold the rest of the country hostage with unusual, bizarre issues. For example, I can’t stand all the ethanol pandering simply because that’s what will get the Iowa vote. So maybe rotate the small states regionally to keep it level. Then bring in the larger states as the stakes get raised. And please, let’s not have an all-in-one day where 25+ states all weigh in. I think it just allows for greater potential error on many parts.
“She Who Must be Voted For’s lickability”
Lickability?
Eddio, what kind of disturbing Freudian slip was that?!?
Whoa! Can we get a spell checker on this site? I knew I was typing fast, but I totally missed that. Wow, thanks for pointing that out to me, David. Trust me, purely accidental.
Oooppss….. :-O
I read that and threw up in my mouth a little bit…
You are forgiven Eddio.
As far as a spell checker, what kind of web browser do you use? Download Firefox, it has a built-in spell check!
Kaiser, you only threw up in your mouth? I doused my Mac Book Pro.
The Iowa/NH first thing is ridiculous. More thought process is put into which city gets the Super Bowl each year then which states have the most influence over who will be leader of the free world. There should be some sort of revolving system. Eddio is right (accept for the ‘lickability’ slip). Feb 5 does not afford candidates the chance to really campaign for the vote – therefore, the majority of the population votes on the media’s interpretation. If that’s really the case, I guess the Nielson ratings are the most accurate poll going.
Does anyone else want to see Mitt pack it up? Yes he’s got a great resume. Yes he says some of the right things. But there’s a major likability issue there. Fair or not, I have a bad feeling about Mitt in the general. McCain was probably my 4th choice out of the field, but I’m really starting to think he’s the only guy who can win. Is that because the media told me so? Perhaps. But when so many signs point to it being a Dem year, I really hate taking any chances.
Romney thought he could buy the nomination and it just isn’t going to work out for him. New Hampshire was political blip for McCain. I don’t think he wins another primary. The skeletons are starting to come out for Huckabee.
Thompson could pull off a nice showing in Michigan and South Carolina and pick up momentum. I’m seeing more signs for Ron Paul in Nevada then any other candidate. I think Paul might have a shot here to at least place second.
I don’t think NH was a blip. McCain leads in national polls by an increasing amount. Barring something weird, he will definitely win more primaries. He will probably win both Michigan and Nevada. My guess is that Paul will get single digits in both, finishing dead last in Nevada.
That said, I haven’t been right yet:)
Now that we’ve had our appropriate dosages of pepto-bismol (or ipecac, David and Jason), we now resume our regularly scheduled blogging…
(Shout out to RobA for correctly spelling likability!)
I think the people who stand to gain the most out of this Super Tuesday idea is the media. They become more powerful by their ability to deliver the messages to the masses in lieu of personal politicking by the candidates in each state. They can shape, define, or package a presentation in any way they see fit. And it’s been shown that the media is skewed well into the liberal end of the political arena when compared to the general population. So the candidates are relying on people with a transparent agenda who can influence heavily the campaign based on their own biases and prejudices. I frankly think that now the McCain is out in front, the media is not going to hound him like they did Huck or ROmney.
I’d much rather have an electoral process where the candidates, like it or not, have to run a marathon of meet/greet throughout the maximum # of states possible to ensure a process decided by people, not pollsters.
My calls:
MI – Romney, McCain, Huck
NV – Guliani, McCain, Romney
SC-Huck, McCain, Romney
FL-Guliani, McCain, Huck
Dropouts:
After SC – Fred Thompson
After FL – Guliani (if he does not win any state by then)
After Super Tuesday – Romney or Huckabee
By mid-Feb, we’re down to McCain, Huck or Romney, and possibly Guliani.
Lickability – Loved that one, made me laugh! Thanks all!
14 RedStateEddio,
You didn’t say Paul was dropping out so that means your last sentence should read:
“By mid-Feb, we’re down to McCain, Huck or Romney, Paul and possibly Guliani”
Even if Paul is single digits through the entire process Paul is going to stick it out. He may not effect the party this year (although I think he already has) but will in the long haul. I think Paul is the Goldwater of this generation. I feel you’ll have a real Constitutionalist winning the nomination by 2020.
I know I’m late to this party, but, since the reference was to Hillary…
Since she IS a Clinton, should the correct terminology be “SLICKABILITY”
Gary R – Never too late to join the party…
Troy – As for Ron Paul-sure, he will probably be there; but as a major, viable, nationwide option, he’ll most likely be on the outside looking in. But kudos to the effort of making it more than just a 1 election flash in the pan.
We could do this for each candidate:
Clickability – Ron Paul’s e-army
Slickability – Clintons
Hickability – Mike Huckabee
How many people who back Ron Paul do you think are actually going to vote Republican in the Fall? I’m willing to bet less then 25%.
I doubt they would vote Democrat so that means they will vote Libertarian. Maybe losing an election will make the GOP pull it’s head out of its ***.
I might bring myself to vote for Romney. But if it is McCain, Huckabee, or Rudy, then I will probably pull the lever on a third party candidate.