McCain wins NH, gives lamest victory speech I’ve ever seen (UPDATED)

By Jason Wright, Editor

Filed Under Race for White House 2008 on Jan 8 

No surprise. Despite some late movement in the polls toward Mitt Romney, John McCain has won the NH primary. The final percentage is likely to change, but as of this post he’s leading by 6 points.

On the one hand, this is an awfully impressive political comeback. McCain was trailing badly in the polls and in our very own Power Rankings just a couple months ago. He was written off as rotten political meat by pundits and users on this site and countless others. But “Mac is back,” as his supporters chanted tonight during his speech.

On the other hand, why are we surprised McCain did well in a state that’s famously independent and that he won just eight years ago? Why are we surprised that he won when his Achilles’ heel, immigration, has significantly faded as an issue? When Romney was leading in the NH polls McCain wasn’t yet on TV reminding voters how much they loved him in 2000. Once he began campaigning in earnest in the state, and the ad buys kicked in, his numbers began to rise and Romney’s fell.

Make no mistake about it, this was a bad night for Romney. He staked his campaign on the well-known “kindling” strategy. Win Iowa, win New Hampshire, watch it take fire across the country. Instead he’s placed second in both states despite massively outspending his opponents. It could be worse for Mitt, of course, he could be Rudy or Fred, two candidates struggling for any headline right now.

Where do the GOP front runners go from here? Romney must win either Michigan or South Carolina. Even if he doesn’t he’s likely to stay in the race until February 5th. But second place finishes look like losses in politics, no matter how you spin it. Can he still win Michigan and blunt McCain’s mojo? Yes, but after tonight McCain is the favorite there. South Carolina? That’s a much tougher state for him, but a victory there isn’t impossible.

If McCain wins Michigan he’s the odds-on favorite to win the nomination. States that follow have a tendency to vote by the bandwagon effect. They want to be on the side of the eventual nominee. Even if Rudy fares well on February 5th, McCain is likely to win enough states to chase the remaining horses from the track.

If Huckabee wins South Carolina (he’ll do no better than third in Michigan) he’s likely to do very well in Florida, perhaps even winning. Wins in those states would make him formidable on Super Tuesday.

The biggest disappointment of the night just might be the anemic returns for Ron Paul. New Hampshire was a state he and his supporters targeted for a big surprise. A win? No. But third or fourth place seemed very much within reach. It appears he’ll finish 5th at just 8%. Raising 20 million in a quarter was pretty impressive, but after two major contests and one minor contest (Wyoming), Ron Paul is just another guy running for president finishing snugly in the second tier.

Now about that McCain speech. I have never seen a candidate read a concession or victory speech — ever. McCain read every word of a lengthy, bulky speech, often clumsily, and looked awkward and uncomfortable at the podium. Come on, Senator, you just had the biggest night of your political life. Put the notes down, look in the camera, and tell us your going to Disneyland.

UPDATE: Made a mistake above saying McCain won NH four years ago, instead of eight. Obviously everyone knew what I meant. He won the last presidential primary in the state. Also, Hillary read her speech as well, meaning John McCain is no longer alone as the only loser I’ve seen read a victory or concession speech word for word. I didn’t see Obama, maybe he joined the club as well.

Comments

  • NewYorkStateConservative

    I will never vote for Hillary, Obama, or any other member of the socialist party. However, I can also never vote a Republican like McCain. Have you ever read his foreign policy proposals? He is Woodrow Wilson incarnated when it comes to foreing policy. And what’s his deal on immigration? His desire to ignore our borders, combined with his desire to create new international organizations to “compliment” the UN does not bode well with me (makes me suspiscious of this “One World Order” thing).

    And why did he not vote for President Bush’s origional tax cuts? Somehing about the rich not paying their share of taxes compared to the other classes? There’s a fiscal conservative for you.

    And need I mention the great freedom of speech inhibator that is McCain-Feigold?

    Yes, McCain is better than any other Democrats- but that doesn’t mean he’s a good choice for president.

  • Roya

    Let me clarify that – if McCain gets the nom, I will be voting for a democrat, as long as it isn’t Hillary.

  • Troy La Mana

    Then Hitlery wins. If we don’t stand for our beliefs then we as a part are doomed. (halfway there as it is)

  • Roya

    I don’t really think this is do-or-die for Romney. After all, he is still in the lead as far as delegates go. However the thought that McCain might actually get the nomination is depressing. He lost my vote after his “Bomb-bomb-bomb Iran” song – my husband is a soldier getting ready to go to Afghanistan, and the fact that McCain is joking around with this did not sit well with me. These are our soldiers lives he is playing with. So, if he gets the nom, I will most likely be voting for a dem for the first time, ever…sigh.

  • PSU2007

    Great point, Dan. You Ron Paul supporters are welcome to vote your conscience, but all you’re doing is giving votes to a democrat. RON PAUL CANNOT WIN! PERIOD. END OF DEBATE. WE ALL KNOW IT. You’d rather Hillary or Obama than anyone but Paul?

  • ShawnN

    Dan/Rob – I disagree. I don’t think you have to have a moderate Republican to win (remember Reagan?). I think you need a strong candidate that stands behind their principals, doesn’t waffle in the wind, and can articulate their ideas well. I don’t think that McCain is that candidate.

    Rob, I think we already are living in the United Socialist States of America and I think that Bush has done more to push us there than Clinton ever did.

  • RobA

    Right on Dan! When we are living in the United Socialist States of America under a HillObama regime – - the Paul write-in supporters can rest easy knowing that Paul can recite the Constitution backwards in 17 languages. Same goes for the far-right crowd who just can’t find it in their heart to back a moderate like McCain and decide to stay home on election day.

    Enjoy the tax hikes and watching the economy crumble. Maybe the newly appointed Sec. of State Michael Moore could invite Ahmidinajad (however you spell his name) could come to the White House for tea.

  • Dan Matyola

    “I don’t care who the media says will win, I am going to follow my conscience and vote for the only candidate who doesn’t talk in sound bites and has a record that demonstrates his integrity.”

    Hillary Clinton appreciates your efforts on her behalf.

    Unless the Republicans nominate someone who can appeal to independents (like McCain), the Democrats will sweep to victory in November. You can, however, rest comfortably in the knowledge that, in your heart, you knew all along that Ron Paul ws “right,” if unelectable.

  • JK

    If McCain gets the nomination will it be a repeat of 1996? In my opinion, Dole’s loss in that election was at least partially due to his age. The only candidate older than McCain is Paul.

  • William Kone

    On the other hand, Paul has proven that (for now) the polls are right. just before Iowa he was at 8% (-/+ 2%) and got 10%, just before NH he was at 9% (-/+ 2%) and got 8%. So it’s pretty clear that he pollsters have a good system at this time.

  • ShawnN

    Does no one remember McCain-Feingold or amnesty for illegals? What does it mean to be a Republican any more? Could he at least spend some time in a tanning salon?

  • Troy La Mana

    Paul missed 4th by a mere two thousand votes.

    I did think he would poll higher in NH and no matter what I am still voting for him.

    One think I am sure of.. Mr Mayor is done and so is Thompson unless Fred can pull off a SC win.

  • justuw8

    Hillary will be a BEAST now. NH has created a monster. She will cry every third day to boost her votes in following states, you shall see.

    Romney is going to have to continue to be the common denominator in each state until the others drop from exhaustion, old age, or lack of mojo. I can’t see any of the others running the country. Can’t see it.

  • Mark

    McCain actually won New Hampshire EIGHT years ago, not four.

  • David Kaiser

    Tonight just baffled me.

    I thought McCain would win… but Hillary winning was not anything I ever thought of happening…. not close.

    We have a race on both sides.

  • http://www.jonscott2008.com Jon Scott

    Justin is right. They didn’t want to use the Joementum and turn a victory into: “We’ve been in Iowa. We’ve been in Wyoming. We won in New Hampshire. We’re going to South Carolina. We’re going to Michigan and Florida and California and we’re going to the White House. Haaaaaaaaah”.

    Here comes the brokered convention… oh yeah, and here comes Bloomberg after the independants repudiated Obama (his thinking not mine). 10 out of 10, Jason.

  • RedStateEddio

    Next time, maybe someone needs to slip him a Red Bull when he gets up to speak. It gives you wings, you know.

    “We’ve secretly replaced John McCain’s usually bland water with something he’ll really enjoy…”

    This could be a major republican mess by Super Tuesday. Let’s say Mitt wins Michigan. Huck wins IA & SC, McCain wins NH & possibly NV (can’t remember if they’re both, or just dems). FL is up for grabs, but Guliani is probably in full court press mode tomorrow. By Feb 5, it could be absoloutely unclear who will be the driver of the campaign.

    I vote in PA (state motto: “we like to be irrelevant in elections”); we’re 40th out of all 50 primaries. I thought it’d be all said and done by the time the circus arrives. We may still actually matter. Go figure. Crazy election season…

  • Dominick08

    He probably had zero energy–and thus zero spontaniety. It happens to 71 year olds. Or isn’t he actually 72? But he won.

  • Justin Jackson

    You get the feeling he knew this would be his moment and didn’t want to blow it. A little more energy and spontaneity could not have possibly hurt a 71 year old candidate.

  • http://www.itsfirstfriday.com Phillip McCracken

    It was like it was being written and handed to him as he delivered it, and the person writing it had horrible handwriting. Horrible delivery ruined what could’ve been a good speech.

  • Dominick08

    This race is so fluid anything could happen.

  • crldrummer

    I too am disappointed with Ron Paul’s numbers. However, I will still vote for him in my state’s primary. Fox’s exclusion of him in the Republican round table was an attack on our political process that should not be tolerated. I don’t care who the media says will win, I am going to follow my conscience and vote for the only candidate who doesn’t talk in sound bites and has a record that demonstrates his integrity.