SA out on a limb in Iowa

By Contributor Archive

Filed Under Race for White House 2008 on Jan 2 

My prediction for the finish tomorrow, based on nothing scientific:

DEMS
1. Barack “Baby” Obama by at least 10 points
2. Johnny the Earnest Edwards in a surprise 3-point lead over
3. Hillary, who will grit her teeth and take a big bite out of New Hampshire, a state more likely to vote for her anyway.

REPUBS
1. Huckaboom, by 8 points and no surprise here.
2. John McCain, with a surprise 5-point lead over
3. RON PAUL! Which will really tick off Mittens.

No one will drop out after Iowa, but look for the rats to book after New Hampshire. Thompson is just looking for a line on his resume. Rudy the Gee will hang in until Super Tuesday. But the third-tier Dem ranks will shrink rapidly.

Comments

  • kb

    i think romney will do better then most of you are predicting in iowa. he is much better funded and organized then huck and huck is fading fast. and i think paul will do better then anyone in the MSM would predict in NH.

  • NewYorkStateConservative

    Ron Paul is in 5th (for Iowa) in most polls, but I wouldn’t be suprised in the least if he takes 3rd- after all, the Republican Iowa Caucaus is run in the straw-poll format, and Paul supporters tend to show up to straw-polls in droves. When you also consider that Paul is seperated from third place by a percentage just oustside the marginn of error, you begin to realise that a 3rd place finish for Paul is not unrealisitc at all.

  • liz

    Oh yeah this is credible not

  • Troy La Mana

    I think Dr. Paul is going to shock you all. Maybe not a first but a shock nonetheless.

  • SA Kalinich

    Hardy75:

    I thought the fact that I write this blog already proved I’ve lost my mind!

  • SA Kalinich

    Nope, not based on polls. Remember, nothing scientific.

    Based more on what I’ve been reading about the process and candidates’ approaches to it.

    And a gut feeling…

  • http://capecodporcupine.blogspot.com Peter Porcupine

    The polls you may be reading were taken BEFORE the assination of bhutto and the bizarre non-commercial standup by Huckabee. Here are my predictions -

    GOP – Romney, Huckabee, McCain, Thompson

    Dems – Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Biden

    BTW – did you hear that Edwards bus broke down on the way to his first appearance today, making him 45 min. late and with no transportation? A broken bus by the side of the road – quite the metaphor!

  • Justin Jackson

    “Obama by at least 10 points” is quite strong.

  • Mike

    I see the race this way:

    DEMS: Obama, Edwards, Biden, Clinton
    GOP: Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Thompson, Paul

  • RedstateEddio

    Dems – order of finish
    I think: Obama, Hillary, Edwards
    I hope: Obama, Edwards, Hillary
    I know: Hillary will be the biggest loser unless she finishes first.

    Reps – order of finish
    I think: Huck, Romney, McCain, Thompson
    I hope: Huck, McCain, Romney, Paul
    I know: McCain will be the clear winner (of momentum) heading into NH

  • Hardy75

    You’ve lost your mind if you really think Romney finishes fourth in Iowa.