SA out on a limb in Iowa

By Contributor Archive

Filed Under Race for White House 2008 on Jan 2 

My prediction for the finish tomorrow, based on nothing scientific:

DEMS
1. Barack “Baby” Obama by at least 10 points
2. Johnny the Earnest Edwards in a surprise 3-point lead over
3. Hillary, who will grit her teeth and take a big bite out of New Hampshire, a state more likely to vote for her anyway.

REPUBS
1. Huckaboom, by 8 points and no surprise here.
2. John McCain, with a surprise 5-point lead over
3. RON PAUL! Which will really tick off Mittens.

No one will drop out after Iowa, but look for the rats to book after New Hampshire. Thompson is just looking for a line on his resume. Rudy the Gee will hang in until Super Tuesday. But the third-tier Dem ranks will shrink rapidly.

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Comments

11 Comments

  1. Hardy75 on 02.01.2008 at 15:01 (Reply)

    You’ve lost your mind if you really think Romney finishes fourth in Iowa.

  2. RedstateEddio on 02.01.2008 at 15:20 (Reply)

    Dems – order of finish
    I think: Obama, Hillary, Edwards
    I hope: Obama, Edwards, Hillary
    I know: Hillary will be the biggest loser unless she finishes first.

    Reps – order of finish
    I think: Huck, Romney, McCain, Thompson
    I hope: Huck, McCain, Romney, Paul
    I know: McCain will be the clear winner (of momentum) heading into NH

  3. Mike on 02.01.2008 at 15:22 (Reply)

    I see the race this way:

    DEMS: Obama, Edwards, Biden, Clinton
    GOP: Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Thompson, Paul

  4. Justin Jackson on 02.01.2008 at 16:02 (Reply)

    “Obama by at least 10 points” is quite strong.

  5. Peter Porcupine on 02.01.2008 at 16:23 (Reply)

    The polls you may be reading were taken BEFORE the assination of bhutto and the bizarre non-commercial standup by Huckabee. Here are my predictions -

    GOP – Romney, Huckabee, McCain, Thompson

    Dems – Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Biden

    BTW – did you hear that Edwards bus broke down on the way to his first appearance today, making him 45 min. late and with no transportation? A broken bus by the side of the road – quite the metaphor!

  6. SA Kalinich on 02.01.2008 at 18:09 (Reply)

    Nope, not based on polls. Remember, nothing scientific.

    Based more on what I’ve been reading about the process and candidates’ approaches to it.

    And a gut feeling…

  7. SA Kalinich on 02.01.2008 at 18:10 (Reply)

    Hardy75:

    I thought the fact that I write this blog already proved I’ve lost my mind!

  8. Troy La Mana on 02.01.2008 at 20:44 (Reply)

    I think Dr. Paul is going to shock you all. Maybe not a first but a shock nonetheless.

  9. liz on 02.01.2008 at 20:51 (Reply)

    Oh yeah this is credible not

  10. NewYorkStateConservative on 02.01.2008 at 21:45 (Reply)

    Ron Paul is in 5th (for Iowa) in most polls, but I wouldn’t be suprised in the least if he takes 3rd- after all, the Republican Iowa Caucaus is run in the straw-poll format, and Paul supporters tend to show up to straw-polls in droves. When you also consider that Paul is seperated from third place by a percentage just oustside the marginn of error, you begin to realise that a 3rd place finish for Paul is not unrealisitc at all.

  11. kb on 03.01.2008 at 00:40 (Reply)

    i think romney will do better then most of you are predicting in iowa. he is much better funded and organized then huck and huck is fading fast. and i think paul will do better then anyone in the MSM would predict in NH.

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