Republicans

1. Mark Sanford – He’s a conservative darling, and fits the profile well, if McCain cares to appease the grassroots. The question becomes, does Mac Daddy really care about the conservative base?

2. Mitt Romney – Wealthy, polished, wealthy, already has some national name ID, wealthy, tireless, wealthy, and negates questions about McCain’s weakness on economics issues. Oh, and did we mention he’s wealthy?

3. Bobby Jindal – He’s a complete long shot, but we’ve not seen a long shot get this much buzz since Geraldine Ferrarro in ’84.

The GOP Darkhorse

Sarah Palin – Great back story, very charming and likable, and serves smack dab in the middle of a drilling-where-the-greens-don’t-want-to-drill state. That state happens to be Alaska. She’s got a bit of a “hottie” buzz about her, but like we said, she’s from Alaska.

Democrats

1. Evan Bayh – He’s the poster boy for Moderate Democrats, plus he’s vetted and experienced. If Obama wants to add very popular, moderate balance, this IS the best pick. By the way, he’s moderate.

2. Evan Bayh – He’s such a good pick, we think he occupies spots #1 and #2.

3. Sam Nunn – He’s also moderate, and very experienced, and also fits the ‘insider’ model that is common with Veep picks. He’s also been out of politics for 10 years, and does the ‘change’ candidate want an old-school Beltway insider? He may need one, and Nunn is just as good as any of them.

The Dem Darkhorse

Al Gore – He’s never been more respected around the world, his pet issue has never been more important, and it would be the ultimate sacrifice for country and would cement a rare place in history. Here’s one for you – who are the only two men to serve as Vice President under two different Presidents?
]]> http://politicalderby.com/2008/07/01/2008-vp-power-rankings-july-1st/feed/ 15 http://politicalderby.com/2008/06/19/power-rankings-the-vp-rankings-june-19-2008/ http://politicalderby.com/2008/06/19/power-rankings-the-vp-rankings-june-19-2008/#comments Fri, 20 Jun 2008 02:25:15 +0000 PD Administrator http://politicalderby.com/2008/06/19/power-rankings-the-vp-rankings-june-19-2008/

Welcome to the first edition of PoliticalDerby.com’s 2008 VP Power
Rankings, the original tracking service in the current race for the White House. After ranking the horses seeking the top spot since 2005, we now turn our attention to the bottom of the ticket.

Take note that ranking VP Horses is a much more difficult, fluid, and
subjective task than ranking the presidential candidates. Without polls or primary results to gauge track position it comes down to rumors, tips, and flipping coins.

So let the fun begin!

Power Ranking	The Horse	Mug Shot	Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Evan Bayh			Bayh has had his eye on this spot since being the first to withdraw from the big race. He’s popular, he’s smart, and he’s moderate. Most importantly, he’s got the one trait Obama might want to balance his historic ticket: He’s whiter than Donny Osmond.
	Bill Richardson			Richardson has been running for #2 since his days as a professional baseball player. Bill might be viewed as a bold and risky pick, but a bazillion-and-one-times safer than Hillary. Still, wouldn’t Obama win the Hispanic vote without him?
	Joe Biden			Like Richardson, Biden would bring experience and gravitas to the ticket. But he’s also the consummate Senator: A long-winded, full-of-himself politico who needs 500 words to say what real people could say in 50.
	Hillary Clinton			Hillary’s best chance at being named Veep was withdrawing with dignity from the race a long time ago. Also, you can’t dismiss the idea that picking Hillary would mean every parent with a daughter in a DC-based internship would have to file a preemptive restraining order against former President Crotch.
	Jim Webb			Oh come on, who hasn’t used the phrase “Nazification of the Confederacy”? The only reason Webb is even on this list is that he has a military background and hails from VA. The reason he’s falling fast as Obama’s potential Veep is his newly-discovered soft spot for the confederacy.

Others receiving votes: Tim Kaine, Al Gore, Claire McCaskill, Michael Bloomberg

The GOP VP Horse Tip Sheet Rankings last updated: June 19, 2008

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Mark Sanford			South Carolina’s governor has enemies on the right and the left, but that’s only among stick-in-the-mud party leaders, the conservative grassroots troops love him. Would Sanford want to take a shot now or bank on being a top-tier front-runner for the top spot in 2012 or 2016?
	Charlie Crist			Crist is popular in Florida, the state that could once again determine who rents the big U-Hall and moves to 1600 Penn Ave. He has chemistry with McCain, something that’s not easy to do. Would conservatives embrace him? Or does McCain assume they’ll come home to the ticket regardless of who’s on the second line?
	Mitt Romney			Romney seems to have everything going for him, except the little bitty fact that McCain doesn’t like him and by all accounts Mitt isn’t J-Mac’s biggest fan either. But Romney has more econ street cred than any other horse on either side, and McCain seems dreadfully out of touch on economic issues.
	Mike Huckabee			Huckabee has done everything but get on both knees and beg for the #2 spot. Sure he’d make social conservatives giddy, but his tendency to wear his religion on his sleeve could be a negative. Still, only Obama is smoother on the trail or debate stage.
	Bobby Jindal			Jindal is a hot name at the betting window, but his age could be a major factor. He’s only 37-years old. For the mathematically challenged, that makes him 34-years younger than McCain. The campaign trail for president is no place to start a Big Brother outreach program.

Others receiving votes: Tim Pawlenty, Jim DeMint, John Thune, Tom Coburn

The rankings may not be reprinted or quoted in any form without attribution to PoliticalDerby.com.

]]> http://politicalderby.com/2008/06/19/power-rankings-the-vp-rankings-june-19-2008/feed/ 22 http://politicalderby.com/2008/05/15/2008-power-rankings-may-15th/ http://politicalderby.com/2008/05/15/2008-power-rankings-may-15th/#comments Thu, 15 May 2008 19:04:02 +0000 David Kaiser, Editor http://politicalderby.com/2008/05/15/2008-power-rankings-may-15th/ Welcome to the latest edition of PoliticalDerby.com’s 2008 Power Rankings, the original tracking service in the current race for the White House. The rankings are updated as circumstances warrant and are compiled by our Editor and contributors using wire reports, polls, campaign staffer scuttlebutt and confidential tips.

The GOP Horse Tip Sheet Rankings last updated: May 15, 2008

Power Ranking	The Horse	Mug Shot	Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	John McCain			“Hi, I’m John McCain, I’m running for President, remember me?” That is probably the first commercial Mac should run once the Democrats end their Rocky vs. Apollo brawl. He’s embarked on a foreign policy tour, a biographical tour and a green tour. All that’s left is a three hour tour. (Question – would McCain be the Skipper or Mister Howell?) He’s facing some challenges in the immediate future, like who’s gonna be his VP, and some challenges down the line, like Ron Paul telling his supporters that there is a Star Trek Convention in St. Paul in early September. Beam me up, Johnny!

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet Rankings last updated: May 15, 2008

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Barack Obama			It has been a tale of two campaigns for Barry Obama, one of offense and one of defense. His offense is sort of like his basketball game – it’s pretty good and he knows it. When he was on offense, he buried Hillary Clinton in the month of February. And then came his defense. Yah, his defense is a bit more like his bowling game – painful to watch. He’s been on the defensive since March and has lost more primaries than he won. Despite these gutter balls, he’s managed to pick up a spare by catching and passing Hillary in pledged superdelegates in the last week and then garnering John Edwards’ endorsement this week. The math is strongly in his favor, but assuming he wins the nomination, he’d better bring his hoops game in the general against McCain, because he doesn’t look good in those funny bowling shoes.
	Hillary Clinton			She can’t win, but does she know it? Of course she does, that’s why she’s already running for 2012. She believes that Obama is fatally flawed in the general, but has she looked in the mirror lately? The feeling here is she takes her wins in Kentucky and Puerto Rico , and then bows out “on top”. What’s next for Hill? She’s still a Senator, so she’s got that going for her. Does she push for VP? Go for Majority Leader? Quit politics, gains some weight, grow a beard, take up some pet cause, make a documentary and win an Oscar and a Nobel Prize? Oops, we forgot. Al’s got that market cornered.

The rankings may not be reprinted or quoted in any form without attribution to PoliticalDerby.com.

Democrats

1. Obama: Yes Hillary “won” Michigan, but Obama was smart enough to keep his name off the ballot. Leads in SC by 10 points in the averages.

2. Hillary: Which advisor thought it was a good idea to set yourself up like that? 45% put their coats on, found their polling place, and essentially voted for someone else by choosing either Uncommitted (hmmm, wonder who they meant?) Gravel or Captain Crazy Pants.

3. Edwards: Wake us when you fail to embarrass yourself somewhere. Anywhere.

Republicans

1. Romney: After Michigan his advisors are baffled that he’s not referred to as the front runner. As he likes to say, “two golds, two silvers,” plus leads in delegate and raw vote count. Michigan saved his political career–at least for now.

2. McCain: Independents didn’t show for McCain in Michigan as they did in 2000, despite the fact that the GOP race was the only show in town and McCain ran very hard there. Looking strong in SC, leading in averages, will that change as new polls hit between now and Saturday?

3. Huckabee: There was a stunning and troubling result in Michigan for Camp Huck. Evangelicals supported Romney over Huckabee 34%-29%. And don’t buy the name ID argument, Huckabee won Iowa and millions in free advertising. Needs SC more than anyone but Fred.

4. Thompson: Currently fourth in the state (SC) he must win to continue. Or would a strong second buy him time?

5. Giuliani: Florida.

6. Paul: Still waiting for that online fervent firestorm of support to manifest itself in the real world.

What do the leading horses want from Santa?

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet Rankings last updated: December 16, 2007

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet: “What does each candidate want from Santa Clause this year?”
	Barack Obama			That someone actually begins to care that Oprah endorsed him That Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton don’t decide to pull an Oprah and start campaigning for him Wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, because even Bill’s old state trooper buddies couldn’t stop that momentum
	Hillary Clinton			A photo of Obama writing his kindergarten musings from a mosque Power outages at the major pollsters call centers For every woman who’s ever slept with Bill to endorse her, ensuring Hillary wins the nomination unanimously
	John Edwards			A drug company scandal An insurance company scandal A mega-scandal involving Hillary, Ellen, Obama, and Larry Craig
	Bill Richardson			A list of china patterns for Air Force Two Ribbons, lots of ribbons A giant pair of scissors
	Joe Biden			To have been a governor instead of a senator For voters to actually vote based on foreign policy street cred A Festivus miracle

Others receiving votes: Chris Dodd, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich

The GOP Horse Tip Sheet Rankings last updated: December 16, 2007

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet: “What does each candidate want from Santa Clause this year?”
	Mike Huckabee			Short memories for pocket-book conservatives regarding his tax policies as Arkansas governor $25 million and 3,000 volunteers to compete after Iowa Someone to text message him whenever NIE reports on Iran are released
	Mitt Romney			That Donny and Marie Osmond don’t decide to pull an Oprah and start campaigning for him A win in New Hampshire equal to his likely loss in Iowa For Huckabee to give up politics and return to the pulpit
	Rudy Giuliani			Short memories for social conservatives regarding his policies as NYC mayor A family therapist A survival kit that lasts until Super Duper Tuesday
	Ron Paul			A top three finish in Iowa A monster 4th quarter at the bank For all states to suddenly decide to allow primary votes to be cast online
	John McCain			Two words: New Hampshire For his rivals to continue gushing over him in public For 12 million illegals to voluntarily go home so immigration is no longer an issue
	Fred Thompson			To actually give a rat’s rear-end whether he wins or loses A referral to the same doctor that gave John Kerry botox The end of the Hollywood writers’ strike so he can start campaigning again

Others receiving votes: Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Lazlo

The rankings may not be reprinted or quoted in any form without attribution to PoliticalDerby.com.

And now off to the races!

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet Rankings last updated: November 5, 2007

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Hillary Clinton			Hillary is still out in front of the pack. But she didn’t just stumble at the last debate, she fell on her face and swallowed three pounds of dirt. The rumble of Obama and Edwards galloping behind her seems to have put her on edge and democrats must be wondering if she can’t handle the pressure in a democratic debate, how will she fare under much more heat from the GOP during the general election? In a matter of 90 minutes Hillary went thick skin to easy bleeder. (previous ranking: #1)
	Hillary Clinton			In the past, Hillary occupied two or three of the top positions because of her commanding lead. This round she needs two slots because she’s riding two horses. Debate watchers saw her standing astride two thoroughbreds with one foot on each saddle. One horse is racing for the far-left base of the party while the other one heads for the middle. It’s tough to balance like that and still ride fast enough to stay ahead of the competition. (previous ranking: #1)
	Barack Obama			Barack has hit his stride and is discovering that anti-Hillary momentum might carry him past the verbal miscues. He’s said several bone-headed things lately, but thus far a smile and a wave makes everything peachy again. Though Hillary’s universally panned debate loss gave Obama an extra burst of energy, he’s still not a good bet to overtake her. But at least he’s making things interesting again. (previous ranking: #4)
	John Edwards			College for everyone! Health care for everyone! Cotton candy for everyone! Edwards is littering the track with promises and sound bites. Then when he’s not describing a new entitlement, he’s explaining why he’s the real alternative to Hillary. The fact that he can’t even see Hillary from where he is on the track doesn’t seem to matter. Still, every bad day for Hillary is a good day for Edwards. (previous ranking: #5)
	Bill Richardson			Richardson gets a bump because Hillary came back to the pack in recent weeks. But the governor needs to do more than lope around the track selling himself as the alternative to the alternative who is the alternative to Bush. Never in the history of US presidential politics has a candidate so obviously been running for the ribbon-cutting slot on the ticket. (previous ranking: unranked)

Others receiving votes: Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich

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The GOP Horse Tip Sheet Rankings last updated: November 5, 2007

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Rudy Giuliani			Rudy’s remains in the top spot due to his healthy year-long national lead. But the Mayor will test history by trying to win the GOP nomination despite likely losing Iowa, New Hampshire and possibly South Carolina, where he now trails slightly in the state averages to Governor Romney. Rudy’s team loves to crow about their double digit national lead, but they’d trade 10 national points for a win in Iowa or New Hampshire in a New York minute. (previous ranking: #1)
	Mitt Romney			Romney’s campaign is one of the more perplexing in recent cycles. His national numbers are almost exactly what they were 6 months and tens of millions of dollars ago. But his state numbers improve almost poll-to-poll. He sits very comfortably ahead in Iowa, somewhat comfortably ahead in New Hampshire, and for the first time leads in South Carolina, a state presumed unwinnable by a Mormon. Would you rather be the horse with the national lead or the one leading the states that vote first? (previous ranking: #3)
	Fred Thompson			Fred manages to stay in the running, even though he likes to wander off the track every once in a while to graze in the infield. He might be the first candidate to contend for the nomination without actually campaigning. And no, we’re not comparing him to the reluctant George Washington. It’s hard to imagine the GOP base, no matter how much they like him, rewarding his part-time campaign with the GOP nomination. (previous ranking: #2)
	Mike Huckabee (tie)			As Fred fails to impress, Huckabee creeps toward the top-tier. Huck’s numbers have improved in Iowa and a second place showing would make him an instant contender. His greatest hurdles are cash — he has almost none — and the growing chorus of conservative voices accusing him of being a RINO while serving as Arkansas governor. (previous ranking: #5)
	John McCain (tie)			The fact that these two are tied says a lot about both candidates. McCain continues to fail to meet expectations while Paul soars right over them. McCain looks more tired than battle tested and Paul looks energetic and spunky. So yes, we finally have a Year 2000 McCain in the race! But it’s Ron, not John, and that’s why Paul is capturing the grassroots energy that once belonged to McCain. (previous ranking: tied for #4)
	Ron Paul (tie)			See McCain, Tired. (previous ranking: #5)

Others receiving votes: Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo

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The rankings may not be reprinted or quoted in any form without attribution to PoliticalDerby.com.

And now off to the races!

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet Rankings last updated: October 13, 2007

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Hillary Clinton			Hillary out raised everyone in a quarter that saw her give back $850,000 back to a corrupt donor. Campaign scuttlebutt suggests she’ll soon offer that same amount to every American as her bidding war with herself continues. $5,000 per kid quickly became $1,000 per person per year, so she’s on the right trajectory. At this point her cackle and Bill’s super-sexed libido are the only real threats to winning the nomination. (previous ranking: #1)
	Hillary Clinton			She slipped a little, but in a stunning move, was overtaken by herself. Refusing to commit to having all US troops out of Iraq by 2013 displeased the Democrat base. But that fizzled when the other top-tier Democratic candidates, with the exception of Richardson, said the exact same thing. Keep your friends close, and those positioning themselves to be your Vice Presidential nominee, closer. (previous ranking: #1)
	Hillary Clinton			Do you see the trend? Hillary is back to assuming the top three spots. This is her race to lose unless the media starts flexing their muscles and asking tougher questions. How are you going to pay for all of your promises? Why are you aligning yourself with someone who likes to shove classified documents down his pants for kicks? Who’s better for the kids, Britney or K-Fed? (previous ranking: #1)
	Barack Obama			Little things like lapel pins mean so much, especially when the conventional wisdom is you’re just too wet behind the ears. He just can’t seem to shake the Not-Ready-for-Prime-Time image. Perhaps his fortune will change once he starts spending his millions on TV ads, but for now his numbers are stuck. (previous ranking: #2)
	John Edwards			Edwards is having a hard time stepping out of his wife’s shadow, and for good reason, she may be the better story. Can he reclaim his once prized-Iowa lead? Will rumors that Edwards had a tryst with a former staffer stick? And if so, will he have paid more for her than the haircuts? (previous ranking: #3)

Others receiving votes: Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Bill Richardson

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The GOP Horse Tip Sheet Rankings last updated: October 13, 2007

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Rudy Giuliani			Rudy regains the top spot because he out raised his fellow Republicans without dipping into his own pocket to pad his total. His position in New Hampshire is improving by the day and he’s picked up several recent endorsements. It also didn’t hurt that he’s not the one who suggested consulting lawyers before acting on matters of national defense. He owes a Mitt a slice of New York pizza for that tasty debate gaffe. (previous ranking: #2)
	Fred Thompson			Pick your school of thought on Fred Thompson’s first debate performance. One says he did poorly in the debate with his alternating short and rambling answers. The other thinks he cleared the bar just fine, thank you very much. None of that matters, the important thing is he finally showed up. Fred was second in fundraising – if you don’t count Romney’s generous loan – and he has plenty of money to get through the year. (previous ranking: #1)
	Mitt Romney			Mitt, Mitt, Mitt. The Law & Order debate joke was more canned than his Grandma’s peaches and his line about consulting attorneys sent shivers down the spines of conservatives. Is there something in the Massachusetts water? We’ve gone from a “Global Test” to a “Bar Exam” on issues of national defense. He needs to sit down with his largest donor, himself, and find a way to be as polished as he’s been accused of being. (previous ranking: #3)
	John McCain			Still clinging to life, still fighting and perhaps finding traction in the Granite State. He’s proof positive that if you’re going to fall flat on your face, make sure you do it early enough that you have time to pick yourself back up. McCain’s hurdle will be having enough cash to sustain momentum if he wins or finishes second in New Hampshire. Anything less and it’s back to the morgue, err, Senate. (previous ranking: tied for #4)
	Mike Huckabee (tie)			Huckabee’s strength had been the debates, but not this last time. Only when he spoke were viewers aware he was even on the stage, then he was quickly forgotten. Of course according to former Bush advisor Dan Bartlett, Huckabee’s name is just too darn silly sounding to win the White House anyway. With that kind of groundbreaking insight, taxpayers should feel fortunate he’s not on the government payroll any longer. (previous ranking: #5)
	Ron Paul (tie)			Paul and Huckabee may be tied, but they are headed in opposite directions. Raising $5 million in the last quarter is nothing to sniff at when “also-ran” jokes have often had your name as a punch-line. He still defines the term long-shot, but a 3rd place finish in an early state would be something for Team Paul to savor. (previous ranking: #5)

Others receiving votes: Sam Brownback, Newt Gingrich, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo

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The rankings may not be reprinted or quoted in any form without attribution to PoliticalDerby.com.

As a reminder, we’ve trimmed the number of ranked horses from 10 to 5. You’ll find the long-odds horses in the “Others receiving votes” category. A public outcry might encourage us to change our minds, but at this stage of the race it seems obvious the bottom tier horses are running for issue advocacy.

And now off to the races!

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet Rankings last updated: September 17, 2007

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Hillary Clinton			Hillary is running strong and demonstrating her husband’s uncanny knack for brushing off controversy. One of her chief bundlers, Prisoner Hsu, decides to break the law, skip bail, run to Colorado, board a train and hug himself until he’s recognized and busted. But did voters care? Negative. No blood. No foul. Political junkies want a battle: Hillary vs. Obama, Kanye vs. 50 Cent, Gore vs. A Weight Loss Program. But right now they’re getting Hillary running virtually unchallenged. (previous ranking: #1)
	Barack Obama			Oprahbamafest ’07 was a huge financial success and none of the dough–so far–has been returned because it came from fugitives. With Oprah on his side, Obama could have the widest stance in recorded history and still pull a huge percentage of the womens’ vote. And she couldn’t have shown up at a better time, Oprah is like a get-out-of-jail-free card for Obama’s incompetent foreign policy statements. (previous ranking: #2)
	John Edwards			Edwards has bounced a bit in recent polls, but he’s still so far behind the front-runners they don’t even bother looking over their shoulders anymore. With ideas like his panned International Anti-Terrorism Agency, he’s fast approaching Bill Richardson levels of relevancy. The best news for the media is that Edwards shows no signs of dropping out or giving in, and the longer he runs the crazier he could get. Write it down: John Edwards could be the Mike Gravel of 2012. (previous ranking: #4)
	Chris Dodd			The Senator from Connecticut picked up the endorsement from the Fire Fighter’s Union. With that he quickly went from the out-of-focus, white-haired but clean-shaven Santa in the background of debate clips who no one knows, to the out-of-focus white-haired clean-shaven Santa in the background of debate clips who is endorsed by the Fire Fighter’s Union. Still, he displaces Biden in the Top 5, and that must bring the Jolly Senator and his elves great satisfaction. (previous ranking: #6)
	Bill Richardson			If Bill Richardson were any less relevant he’d be Katie Couric. His failure to catch fire, or even a flicker for that matter, is the one of the biggest surprises of Campaign ’08. Then again, when you suggest God wants Iowa to go first on the nomination calendar, maybe you deserve to be mired in the 3% mud. (previous ranking: #3)

Others receiving votes: Joe Biden, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich

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The GOP Horse Tip Sheet Rankings last updated: September 17, 2007

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Fred Thompson			Welcome to the top, Freddy T. He assumes the top spot on the strength of stronger-than-expected poll numbers after his bungled campaign launch. He’s bounced to a 9-point lead over Rudy in daily tracking polls. Clearly his Leno gamble doesn’t seem to have bothered anyone but his green-eyed republican opponents. Still, Fred’s publicly scrutinized performance has been only slightly better than Britney’s fat-dance at the MTV Video Music Awards. Thank goodness Fred wears suits. (previous ranking: #3)
	Rudy Giuliani			Rudy is still the national leader in the overall poll averages, but his numbers have been mostly stagnant since leveling off in May. He now appears to be running as the presumptive nominee, adopting an ignore-everyone-but-Hillary strategy. Will that work now that Fred is official? And when will he endorse McCain? With all the praise he pours on the Arizona senator, it seems almost inevitable whether Rudy drops out or not. (previous ranking: #2)
	Mitt Romney			Ouch. Romney fought his way into first place only to lose it to someone who wasn’t even officially running a month ago. With Mitt’s luck he’ll claw his way back to the top only to have Newt Gingrich enter the race 7 minutes later and knock him right back out again. The “Ames Bump” has disappeared and he’s once again running fourth, behind McCain. But take heart, Heart Throb, you’re still leading Iowa and NH comfortably. (previous ranking: #1)
	John McCain			If there’s one thing McCain knows – besides how to chap the hides of conservatives – it’s how to fight. Who would’ve thought that calling a kid a jerk and teasing him about being drafted would be the spark needed to re-ignite his campaign? It’s too early to gauge whether he can recover fully from Immigrationgate, but the crusty old fighter pilot seemingly still knows how to pull up from a nose-dive. (previous ranking: tied for #5)
	Mike Huckabee			How do you go from an also-ran to a contender? Follow the Huckabee model. How do you go from a contender back to an also-ran? Follow the Huckabee model’s second step: Call for a nation-wide smoking ban. Just because you’ve gotten healthy doesn’t mean the nation, especially Republican primary voters, want to elect Richard Simmons. The party of individual rights is not very likely to elect someone who wants to take the ideas of big city Democratic mayors nationwide. (previous ranking: #4)

Others receiving votes: Sam Brownback, Newt Gingrich, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo

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The rankings may not be reprinted or quoted in any form without attribution to PoliticalDerby.com.

As promised (or threatened) we have trimmed the number of ranked horses from 10 to 5 with Labor Day approaching and the Ames straw poll now behind us. You’ll find the long-odds horses in the “Others receiving votes” category.

Rankings last updated: August 16, 2007

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Hillary Clinton			Hillary miraculously avoided the minefield of YearlyKos with only a few boos from the netroots. Playing the chess game of courting the Left-wing lunatic fringe while not alienating the middle better than anyone else, she’s widening her impressive lead in national polls. But her support amongst the Left seems more, “Yeah, sure, fine, whatever” than “I love Hill!” Will that be enough to walk away with the nomination? There’s just no passion in the relationship with her supporters. (Not that Hillary isn’t familiar with passionless relationships. She’s been in one for 32 years.) (previous ranking: #1)
	Barack Obama			Obama took nuclear weapons off the table, no matter what, then put them back, sort of. Also said he would attack an ally, risking putting Pakistan’s nuclear weapons into the hands of those sworn to destroy us. Obama is the recipient of the most pointless and offensive question thus far in campaign 2008. “Are you black enough?” But lately the more appropriate question is, “Are you competent enough?” (previous ranking: #2)
	Bill Richardson			Richardson is on the rise only if measured against Edwards’ fall. He has managed to avoid most of the pitfalls that trip also-rans and in the process is looking like a savvy VP choice. But to remain on the short list he has to avoid his penchant for pandering. Eyes rolled statewide when Richardson told the media he would rank Iowa in the top 10 of terrorist targets. Even the terrorist cells holed up in Iowa don’t know where Iowa is. (previous ranking: #3)
	John Edwards			Rumors are swirling that Edwards has a lucrative new book deal: From Frontrunner to Also-ran in Three Simple Steps. One, build the largest house in North America. Two, get haircuts that cost more than most people spend on haircuts during their entire lives. Three, demonize Wal-Mart while purchasing a PlayStation 3 from … wait for it … Wal-Mart. Take these steps while talking about two Americas, one rich, one poor, and you’re guaranteed to be hit with charges of insincerity, as was the case with his home state’s largest newspaper. Sounds like a bestseller. (previous ranking: #4)
	Joe Biden			Joe Biden, aka the first person ever to run for Secretary of State in a presidential primary. Not nearly crazy enough to win support of the DailyKos crowd, he was the only Democrat candidate to avoid kissing the ring of the netroots. Biden comes across in the debates as the most level-headed of the Democrats running, which is like being the most sober pop star; you’re still drunk. Is it difficult to relate to average Americans when you’ve been a Senator since the age of 29? (previous ranking: #5)

Others receiving votes: Christopher Dodd, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich

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The GOP Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Mitt Romney			Mitt met expectations, not an easy thing to do in take-no-prisoners politics, and won the Ames Straw Poll big. But everyone knows he was the only major candidate taking it seriously. Polling very well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but still dragging nationally. If he can’t find a way to become known to the nation more for his policies than his religion, he has potential next January to bomb bigger than Daddy Day Camp. Yes, he’s raised a lot of money, but he can’t afford to keep spending more than $400 per vote, especially when those votes don’t matter. (previous ranking: #3)
	Rudy Giuliani			Rudy skipped Iowa, which is probably an indication of his future fate there. But he still leads in the polls almost everywhere else and his no-show in Ames may not damage him as much as a poor showing certainly would have. It’s time for America’s Mayor to become comfortable with what he did do on 9/11 so he’ll stop getting baited into claiming credit for things he didn’t do on 9/11. His biggest asset is starting to reveal albatross potential. (previous ranking: #1)
	Fred Thompson			Freddy T’s flirtation with running served him well for months, but his fans are growing tired of waiting for him to ask their hand in marriage. He’s waited so long that his real wife is getting more media attention than he is and he’s had more campaign leadership shuffles than anyone in history who hasn’t officially joined the campaign. It’s time to put up or shut up, or he runs risk of arriving at the altar alone. (previous ranking: #2)
	Mike Huckabee			The only person not surprised by Huckabee’s showing in the straw poll is Huckabee himself. Finishing second, while only spending $58 per vote, is a terrific showing for someone the media has been considering an also-ran from Day One. Surely Giuliani’s decision not to participate helped, but so have his stellar showings in the debates. If there is an argument to be made for so many debates so early, Huckabee is it. But he would be the only argument for so many debates so early. (And there is no argument, period, for having Chris Matthews or Keith Olbermann hosting debates no matter how early they are.) (previous ranking: #5)
	John McCain			Yes, McCain is still running … this time away from his stance on immigration reform. His switch on a key GOP issue seems too little too late to regain traction or track position. Even the rock thrown in the pond by Mike Gravel didn’t sink to the bottom this fast. And when you lose the straw poll to Duncan Hunter you know that pain in your butt is a fork. (previous ranking: tied for #4)

Others receiving votes: Sam Brownback, Newt Gingrich, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo

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Rankings last updated: July 25, 2007

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Hillary Clinton			Hillary is a force that ostensibly cannot be stopped. She’s the Washington Redskins of the 80′s, the New York Yankees of the 90′s,  or any team that NBA ref Tim Donaghy bet on in the 2000′s. A month ago, when Obama came within the spread, Hillary brought out the big guns — Bill — and it paid off. But will the fact that her hubby is still the party’s #1 rock star remind people of all Hillary could never be? Is Bill more ladylike than Hill? Stay tuned. (previous ranking: #1)
	Barack Obama			Obama had been riding high on his massive Q2 primary fundraising victory… right until the moment he caved to an uber-liberal special interest group and suggested sex-ed begin in kindergarten. Fortunately he succeeded in changing the subject. Now he’s alone in suggesting 18 months before potentially taking office that he’d meet with the presidents of Iran, North Korea, and Bedrock. The ensuing dogfight with Hillary has real potential to turn into something rarely seen off the Michael Vick compound. (previous ranking: #2)
	Bill Richardson			Richardson, the hispanic Governor of NM, is hardly lighting the track on fire, but he’s moved up to 3rd because John Edwards simply can’t get his act together. Being consistent has its benefits, even if few people are paying attention to him. He’s nicely positioned to be a solid choice for VP if either Clinton or Obama win the whole enchilada. (previous ranking: #4)
	John Edwards			Edwards’ mega summer poverty tour was more hyped than Evan Almighty, roughly as inspirational, and disappeared from public awareness almost as quickly. No strategy shift seems capable of keeping Edwards from stopping to eat weeds along the side of track. If Edwards were a horse, and horses were planes, he’d be nose-diving. (previous ranking: #3)
	Joe Biden			In a field bent on appeasing the moveon.org crowd, Biden’s refreshing honesty about his votes on the war have won him admirers. While seemingly entrenched as the leader of the also-rans, he has firmly planted his flag in the ground of being at the top of the list of dems for Secretary of State. (previous ranking: #6)
	Chris Dodd			The good senator from Connecticut has proven to be, well, irrelevant in this race. Not quite ready to drop out, but his trainer is calling the vet. Bring the syringe, Sheryl. (previous ranking: #7)
	Dennis Kucinich			Congressman Kucinich has picked up some hard-earned sympathetic press. Unfortunately for him it was due to the fact he, as a Vegan, got food poisoning. But while he might not the best poster child for vegetarianism, his wife sure is. Hubba hubba. (previous ranking: #8)
	Mike Gravel			Gravel’s hatred of rocks and desire to drown them in small ponds made for the oddest ad thus far in the campaign. It earned him more media attention in a day than he could afford over the life of his “campaign”, a word used very loosely in connection with the quirky senior citizen. (previous ranking: #9)
	Al Gore			If you throw a concert for the earth and no one really cares, did you accomplish anything? Even with an Oscar and the elimination of life as we know it on his side, Live Earth couldn’t draw enough big names to create a trickle of excitement. His 4-out-of-5-dentists-surveyed approach to science appears to be wearing thin with the public. That and the fact that the Johannesburg, South Africa concert’s low attendance was blamed on the cold weather. Brrr. (previous ranking: #3)
	Michael Moore			Even with all the hype and free press for Sicko, Moore’s attempt to insert himself into yet another election has fizzled thus far. His recent attacks on Wolf Blitzer, Dr. Sanjay Gupta and CNN rang as hollow as the results of his stint in a $3800 per week fat farm and the multi-millionaire socialist’s attempts to connect with the “common man” have worked about as well as Lindsey Lohan’s 45-day rehab stay. (previous ranking: #10)

Others receiving votes: Wes Clark, Cindy Sheehan

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The GOP Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Rudy Giuliani			Rudy’s leads in the national polls are down to an average of just 5 points over Fred Thompson. A strong conservative speech on judges in Iowa and an attack from the nation’s largest firefighters union makes the last few weeks a momentum wash. Only time will tell which will have more sway with the public: Principled talk on how the judiciary should function, or the web-based propaganda of a union that is so liberal that they once endorsed Michael Dukakis. (previous ranking: #1)
	Fred Thompson			Freddy T, the hardest working man in the “I’m only sort of running for President” business continues to rise by flirting with the public and creating the type of buzz that tends to go away once you officially announce that you want to be President. The longer he waits to make it official, the longer he’ll escape the spotlight of media scrutiny the other candidates are sweating under. Will his wife’s recent heavy hand in the campaign trip him up? Paging First Lady Sherry Palmer. (previous ranking: #4)
	Mitt Romney			Romney is warm, but he has yet to catch fire. Strong showings in polls in the first two primary states are encouraging signs, but those only carry him so far. Particularly when you’re spending money faster than Congress. For someone accused of being “too polished,” his campaign could use an industrial-sized bottle of Tarex. (previous ranking: tied for #2)
	John McCain			What’s the single greatest difference between the late, great race horse, Barbaro, and the campaign of John McCain? Barbaro knows he’s dead. (previous ranking: tied for #2)
	Mike Huckabee			Huckabee continues to win fans, but not supporters. He has positioned himself better than anyone else to be the Veep choice for any one of the announced non-southerners now leading the pact. It’s time for Huck to concede, at least in the mirror, that he can’t win the nomination spending less than Romney spends on makeup consultants. (previous ranking: #5)
	Ron Paul			Having more cash on hand than McCain could be due to the Libertarian’s unwillingness to spend money on anything, or it could be that there is still a slice of the populous that actually believes in the Constitution. Don’t expect his support to grow, but do expect it to remain solid. The Paullowers are a very dedicated bunch. (previous ranking: #10)
	Sam Brownback			Brownback’s remarkably sudden return to the conservative fold for his immigration vote pleased the base. But his waffling, lack of money, and any serious, new legislative proposals continue to keep him right where he is likely to finish: near the bottom. (previous ranking: #7)
	Newt Gingrich			Many conservatives long for the days when Newt led the Republicans to majorities in the House and Senate, but they also fear Newt is more interested in selling books than anything else. And establishing close ties with liberals in his quest to find solutions to America’s problems have caused many conservatives to question the credentials of their once great leader. (previous ranking: #5)
	Duncan Hunter			Duncan Hines has more name recognition and a better shot of pulling off the nomination than Duncan Hunter. And, let’s face it, the cake would taste a lot better at the election night party. (previous ranking: #8)
	Tom Tancredo			Being a one trick pony on an issue that has played out doesn’t bode well for Tancredo. While immigration is still an issue many voters care about, the fact that there is no longer a bill for people to hate currently before Congress means the media, therefore the public, simply won’t be paying attention to the issue. Unfortunately for Tancredo, the same facts apply to his candidacy. (previous ranking: #9)

Others receiving votes: Patricia Heaton, Tommy “Is he still running?” Thompson

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Rankings last updated: June 22, 2007

(Because there has been little, if any, movement in the second and third-tiers, the latest rankings comprise only the top four horses on each side. Complete rankings due after second quarter fund raising totals are released on or around July 1st.)

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Hillary Clinton			Much like the Bride of Chucky, the Bride of Bill’s momentum just won’t die. While Hillary threatened to have Congress take Big Oil profits, apparently she was taking profits from companies like Exxon and BP, in whom she had invested. Turns out she was also invested in the company the left most loves to hate: Wal-Mart. So far none of this seems to matter as Rasmussen has her running at 37-percent, her high thus far in ’07. (previous ranking: #1)
	Barack Obama			It seems everyone has a crush on Obama, but even his second “unauthorized” YouTube video isn’t enough to vault him past Hillary. He still gets more positive press coverage than the other democrats combined, but his coat looks a little less shiny than just four weeks ago. (previous ranking: #1)
	John Edwards			The former VP nominee has become nearly irrelevant. With the exception of Iowa, where he leads by a few points in the poll averages, Edwards is a non-story. He trails Hillary and her sky high unfavorables. He lags behind Obama and his ultra-thin resume. He’s even finds himself looking up at Al Gore, a horse so stale he’s been on the national stage since Britney was sober and in the mouseketeers. (previous ranking: #3)
	Al Gore			There is endless talk about how the GOP is so disenchanted with their choices that Fred Thompson polls in the top tier. Gore is no different to the democrats, but that oddly doesn’t get the same ink in the mainstream media. Gore’s window of opportunity is closing quickly. Q2 fund raising numbers are due shortly and the flirtatious Gore could find himself 50 million behind the front runners. (previous ranking: #4)

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The GOP Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Rudy Giuliani			Rudy still leads the Power Rankings, but he can finally feel his competitors’ breath on his hindquarters. He’s fallen from the top in the latest Rasmussen poll and for the first time finds himself trailing an unofficially exploring Freddy T. Sure, that stings, but sources say that campaign moral remains very high, especially at the home of his SC campaign chair. (previous ranking: #1)
	Mitt Romney			Mittens, as some bloggers have dubbed him, has made an impressive move to the front in several key state-polls. But his national numbers remain mired in a 10-percent rut. McCainiacs predict Freddy T’s entrance will hurt Mitt the most. Is this wishful thinking or sound analysis? (previous ranking: tied for #2)
	Fred Thompson			The world is divided into two camps on former district attorney Arthur Branch. He’s either nothing more than the sexiest flash-in-the-pan since Shakira, or he’s Reagan II, coming to rescue the GOP from Rudy McRomney. His official announcement is due in mid-July. Will his numbers hold once he’s no longer just a hypothetical on a telephone poll? (previous ranking: #4)
	John McCain			McCain’s campaign eerily resembles this summer’s movie sequels. He had a huge opening but is fading fast. He’s been sliding in the national polls for months and sources say his Q2 numbers could underwhelm. As Monty Python said, “He’s not dead yet,” but his controversial immigration bill has conservatives mapquesting the nearest glue factory. (previous ranking: tied for #2)

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Rankings last updated: June 6, 2007

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
(tie)	Barack Obama			Obama hangs on to a tie at the top, but his mediocre debate performances are unlikely to give him much of a boost. His key objective now is a huge fundraising month in June to show he’s no first-quarter fluke. In the meantime, his assignment before the next debate is to get better with 30-second answers. Obama shines in lengthy speeches, but his sound bites are so long they make Joe Biden look like a verbal economist. (previous ranking: #1)
(tie)	Hillary Clinton			Hillary is right where she wants to be. She has a healthy lead in the national poll averages, but isn’t so far ahead that she’s the only target. After the recent debate it’s obvious she’s seen polling that suggests invoking her husband’s name scores points with likely primary voters. She’s practically become his campaign manager for UN Ambassador and already has packed his bags for that relationship-mending world tour she keeps promising. Let’s just hope she includes clean whitey tighties and some Valtrex. (previous ranking: #1)
(tie)	John Edwards			Edwards has name ID to kill for, a well-oiled campaign machine that’s nearly five years old, the hair of a Just for Men model, and the poll numbers of a second-tier candidate. This, political junkies, is what therapists are for. He’s clinging to a tie for third based on a lead in Iowa and a very strong performance in the last debate, but he can’t be thrilled with trailing Al Gore in the national polls. (previous ranking: #3)
(tie)	Al Gore			Just when you think Gore will ride off on his Ethanol powered space ship, he reminds us that the door on a 2008 campaign isn’t quite closed. Buzz over his new book release has Al and Tipper once again sharing familiar political pillow talk. Every night he turns and lovingly asks, “So, do I have one more in me?” Gore is the only candidate that could afford to sit out this long, but he’s down to 4-6 weeks, tops, to make a move. (previous ranking: #7)
	Bill Richardson			Governor Richardson, who we’ve heard serves as governor of New Mexico, has been teasing analysts for weeks with his potential to join the top-tier horses. So far the governor has failed to deliver much besides constant reminders that he’s the governor of New Mexico. The lousy showing at the last debate by Governor Richardson, governor of New Mexico, ranks as one of the biggest surprises thus far in the 2008 derby. (previous ranking: #4)
	Joe Biden			No one could ever accuse Joe Biden of being just a show horse. Every time he gets on a debate stage he reminds people that if there were an award given for Winner Among Those Without a Snowball’s Chance of Ever Becoming President, Senator Biden would be the guy. No one doubts Biden is passionate and truly cares, but he’s still destined to be a Senate lifer. (previous ranking: #6)
	Chris Dodd			Senators Dodd and Biden have been nearly indistinguishable — until now. Dodd now seems out of place next to everyone above him. He may raise enough money in Q2 to keep trotting around the track, but he’s running in Biden’s second-tier shadow. (previous ranking: #5)
	Dennis Kucinich			Kucinich has proven a surprisingly strong debater, but sometimes he looks like a trick carnival pony when standing on stage next to the other horses. The unhandled, unspun Kucinich believes every word he utters. And that’s precisely why he’ll never sniff the White House. (previous ranking: #8)
	Mike Gravel			It’s hard not to like Mike Gravel. He is fed up with the system and wouldn’t know a political consultant if one danced nude during shuffleboard time. The former Senator reminds each of us of the crazy Uncle who’s only permitted to attend family reunions on the condition he take his meds. Which, as we learned in the last debate, he gets without incident from the VA. (previous ranking: unranked)
	Rosie O’Donnell			With Wes Clark finally out of the rankings, symmetry required a new horse to enter the field. Who better than the now unemployed Rosie O’Donnell? She may not have a good head on her shoulders, but if ever there was a horse’s behind… (previous ranking: unranked)

Others receiving votes: Wes Clark

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The GOP Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
(tie)	Rudy Giuliani			Rudy is no longer alone at the top. His national numbers are still enviable – he averages a double digit lead – but according to the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, the percentage of Republicans who definitely will not vote for Giuliani has jumped from less than a quarter to 33-percent. Now comes the news that Rudy will skip the Iowa straw poll, a major barometer of support and an important stepping stone to winning the caucus. Will Iowans feel left at the alter? Yes, so expect the mayor’s numbers to slip. (previous ranking: #1)
(tie)	Mitt Romney			Romney isn’t lighting up the national surveys, but his state numbers are on the rise. He now leads in Iowa and New Hampshire and he’s expected to post another huge number when Q2 fundraising totals are released the first of July. He still has sizable hurdles, including new numbers suggesting that 30-percent of republicans are remain less likely to support a Mormon, but most insiders including veteran political operative Ben Affleck no longer consider him a dark horse. (previous ranking: tied for #2)
(tie)	John McCain			McCain’s aura of inevitability as the establishment candidate has been officially tossed to the ash heap of history. But his latest debate performance finally gave voters, particularly in New Hampshire, a reminder of what they loved about McCain version 2.000. Either you admire him for standing firm on the immigration issue in spite of overwhelming opposition from within his own party, or you call his legislation further evidence that he’s not a conservative. Either way at least we know he’ll call us “friends” 42 times per debate. (previous ranking: tied for #2)
(tie)	Fred Thompson			Fred is in an enviable position. As an unannounced exploratory candidate this actor doesn’t have to show his Racing Stripes or stand In the Line of Fire. But he obviously wasn’t Born Yesterday and knows that the day he officially enters the race he faces Barbarians at the Gate. Will we soon hear from many DC-area women that asked Fred to Stay the Night during his years in the Senate? (previous ranking: #4)
	Mike Huckabee			Huckabee ought to be lobbying for more debates. Perhaps no one has been more consistently impressive on stage. He’s smooth and sincere and looks the part of a serious GOP presidential contender. His hurdle is that he couldn’t get arrested in IA, NH or SC. His polls numbers are lower than Paris Hilton’s blood alcohol level. (previous ranking: #6)
	Newt Gingrich			It seems Newt has developed a habit of appearing on television minutes after Fred Thompson to remind us that he, too, could jump into the race. The difference is that Fred doesn’t chastise America for being interested in the race this early. Newt thinks anyone either running or following the campaigns this far out is an idiot. He’s still polling well, but his act is growing old. (previous ranking: #5)
	Sam Brownback			Brownback has become the poster child for second-tier candidates. He’s taken more seriously than the bottom-tier horses below him, but no number of eloquent responses on evolution or abortion will move him to the big time. He likely sticks it out until the Iowa straw poll in August, but then it’s back to the Senate. (previous ranking: #7)
	Duncan Hunter			Hunter has quickly become the one candidate you’d most like to have a rootbeer with after a long day at the office. He knows the issues and doesn’t look or sound controlled by high-priced political consultants. He won’t win, but he might have the best shot of the dark horses to last past Labor Day. (previous ranking: #8)
	Tom Tancredo			Tancredo couldn’t have asked for better timing. The issue that has long kept him up at night, immigration, is dominating the debate both on stage and on the trail. Admit it, there have been points during the debates when you expected Tancredo to point at the moderator and yell, “You want me on that wall! You need me on that wall!” (previous ranking: unranked)
	Ron Paul			We’re willing to go out on a limb here, Dr. Paul is never going to be elected president of the United States. But in his quest for the GOP nomination, he’s winning a surprising number of fans for giving voice to hardcore conservatives who feel left out of the process. If debate watchers think Ron Paul is the only republican who would abolish the IRS or wishes we’d never gone to war in Iraq, they are sorely mistaken.

Others receiving votes: Jim Gilmore, the other Thompson

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So welcome to the latest edition of PoliticalDerby.com’s 2008 Power Rankings, the original tracking service in the current race for the White House. The rankings are updated as circumstances warrant and are compiled by our Editor and contributors using wire reports, polls, campaign staffer scuttlebutt and confidential tips.

Rankings last updated: April 20, 2007

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
(tie)	Barack Obama			Welcome to the lead, Obama. For the first time ever, Hillary has company at the top of the rankings. Obama’s Q1 fundraising totals and ever-improving poll numbers indicate he’s got better legs than Haley Scarnato. He’s closed to just 5 points in one poll and across the board is averaging just an 8-point deficit to Senator Clinton. Not bad for a guy who three years ago was wearing political Pull-Ups. (previous ranking: #2)
(tie)	Hillary Clinton			There’s only one question on the mind of ’08 watchers. Does the Senate health plan cover political grief counseling? Hillary has officially lost the title of presumptive nominee. The race she thought would be more coronation than perspiration has developed into a political junkies dream. She can boast all she wants about finishing the first quarter with the most cash-on-hand, but her support wasn’t nearly as deep as her co-leader. (previous ranking: #1)
	John Edwards			Edwards has rebounded in national polls, but the Tip Sheet hears he has an Obama voodoo doll hanging somewhere in his humble NC home. The race to be the “Anybody But Hillary” candidate was Edwards’ to win or lose. That particular race is over for now, and the man with the $400 haircut and populist message is struggling to stay relevant as the lone white male in the top 4. (previous ranking: #3)
	Bill Richardson			As he’s apt to remind you, Richardson is the only actively serving governor on either side. The NM chief executive received positive reviews for his recently concluded state legislative session and got virtually everything he wanted with some crafty maneuvering. Toss in a surprisingly strong $6 million raised in the first quarter and you’ve got the greatest threat to the big three. He doesn’t poll particularly well, but at this early stage in 1991, neither did another chubby governor. (previous ranking: #4)
	Chris Dodd			Despite Dodd’s day job as chairman of the powerful Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, he didn’t raise nearly as much money in the first quarter as some predicted. Nevertheless, a healthy transfer of $5 million from his Senate account gives him enough dough to forge on. And even if his numbers weren’t stellar, he did boast some star power of his own cashing checks from the likes of Chevy Chase. Dodd just hopes his campaign lasts longer than Chevy’s talk show. (previous ranking: #6)
	Joe Biden			Biden’s $2.8 million in the bank keeps him solidly in the second tier. But outside the picnic shelter at the Biden family reunion, is there anyone who believes he can actually be elected president of this country? Now Iraq is another matter. With Biden’s ability to frame the debate and articulately discuss every nuance of the troubled country, perhaps Biden is setting himself up for a change of citizenship? (previous ranking: #7)
	Al Gore			Gore had a window of opportunity leading up to and immediately after the Oscars, but that window is now closing faster than a Quentin Tarantino film. It doesn’t help that no one can hear his global warming message, what with all those hats and ear muffs we’re having to wear this spring. (previous ranking: #5)
	Dennis Kucinich			Kucinich is the only candidate on the left with almost as many MySpace friends as dollars in the bank. He’s pledged to raise $50 million for his campaign and his Q1 totals put him comfortably on pace to challenge for the nomination in 2096. (previous ranking: #8)
	Wes Clark			Say goodnight, Gracie. The draft Clark effort is running on dial-up fumes. (previous ranking: #9)
	Mike Gravel			The bad news is that Gravel’s campaign reports just $498 dollars cash-on-hand. The good news is that leaves plenty for a nice haircut before the first candidate forum. (previous ranking: #10)

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The GOP Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Rudy Giuliani			In any other year Giuliani’s first quarter numbers would have been like an overdose of Viagra to the political world. But he finished fourth overall and has watched his lead shrink in the most recent polls. Plenty of pundits and bloggers are wondering how long Mr. Teflon II can deflect controversy and bridge his deep ideological gap with the GOP base. Will he be known as a Sanjaya or a Melinda? Only time will tell. (previous ranking: #1)
	Mitt Romney			Romney led the GOP field with a whopping $23 million raised in the first quarter. Then he went right out and spent nearly half of it on Caffeine Free Diet Coke and name ID. He’s doing well on the ground in places like South Carolina, winning a surprising number of county straw polls, but he needs to start seeing a return on that Q1 investment quickly in the national polls that make the 6:00 news. (previous ranking: tied for #2)
	John McCain			Sources say Senator McCain is in the market for a Men in Black magic pen-light that when triggered causes everyone to forget the last several months. How else does he get past a rough first quarter that was supposed to send him off on an easy trot to the nomination? He’s still the establishment favorite with a shiny bus, but his momentum is AWOL. (previous ranking: tied for #2)
	Fred Thompson			Yes, Fred’s ranking is lofty for someone not actually running for president, but how can you ignore a guy whose numbers are so sky high? His dog and pony show on the Hill got raves and there are rumored to be dozens of lawmakers ready to endorse his candidacy. And honestly, why would Lymphoma mess with a guy like Fred Thompson? Doesn’t it know Fred’s going to beat the snot out of it and send it to jail? (previous ranking: unranked)
	Newt Gingrich			Newt’s got ideas that resonate, a loyal following, and poll numbers that over half the field must envy. What he doesn’t have are little things like money, a political team, or a calendar. (previous ranking: #5)
	Mike Huckabee			Huckabee has been running full-time since January but has little to show for it. Now a new Gallop poll has him trailing George Pataki. Pataki? Seriously? George Pataki? Huck needs to make a move quickly, or his best shot at airtime in ’08 will be as the new Jared. (previous ranking: #4)
	Sam Brownback			Brownback raised less than $2 million since December, has less than $1 million in the bank, and can’t crack 1% in the polls. Those might be three good reasons to consider throwing in the salt lick. (previous ranking: #6)
	Duncan Hunter			Calling Hunter’s early fundraising numbers anemic would be a disservice to anemia sufferers everywhere. He raised enough to keep the electricity on, but his campaign better hope for a mild summer. (previous ranking: #7)
	Tommy Thompson			With a resume like Thompson’s, one expected a bit more than the $500K raised thus far. Perhaps if he were Jewish he’d do better, because according to Thompson they’re good with money. (previous ranking: #8)
	Jim Gilmore			MISSING: Evidence of the candidacy of former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore. If you have any information on its whereabouts, please email wheresjim@politicalderby.com. (previous ranking: #9)

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Last updated on March 12, 2007

The DEM Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Hillary Clinton			Hillary’s had better months. Her once commanding lead has been sliced in half since her January in-it-to-win-it announcement and her campaign went nuclear in the David Geffen drama when a simple sniper would have done nicely. Fortunately her lead is still double digits, she continues to benefit from an old-school political machine that’s to die for, and she’s still married to the first black President. But look closely, race fans, this horse is sweating like Eddie Murphy in a fatsuit. (previous ranking: #1)
	Barack Obama			Senator Obama couldn’t have prayed for a better story than David Geffengate. The drama opened some democrats’ eyes and prompted Clintonites from coast-to-coast to wonder what the definition of “inevitable” is. While Hillary ‘s margin among white voters has been consistent, take note of Obama’s growing support among blacks. A January poll showed that blacks favored Hillary by a whopping 60-20 margin. But a recent ABC-Washington Post poll has Obama now leading 44-33. Go ahead. read that again, that’s a 51-point swing. (previous ranking: #2)
	John Edwards			So that’s what momentum looks like. Edwards has been stumbling since the second Obama and Hillary announced their campaigns. Who would have guessed Edwards would find his mojo hiding at FoxNews? The skirmish over the now-cancelled Nevada debate, fueled by Edwards’ decision to skip it, has breathed life into his stalled campaign and re-energized his loyalists. Still, the very latest surveys of the party faithful have him doubled up by Obama 24%-12%. Ouch. (previous ranking: #3)
	Bill Richardson			Richardson just wrapped up his first trip to Iowa and reports from the track suggest that despite his tardiness to their fair state, he was very well received. He barely registers in the polls, but the Derby’s ridiculously early start time gives him the one resource the leaders can’t horde: time. If Richardson can raise enough money to keep staff in place and fuel in the plane, he poses the biggest threat to join the three-headed monster: Clintbamards. (previous ranking: #4)
	Al Gore			No one has ever relished the role of potential candidate more than Al Gore. He’s still smiling from his Academy Award win and there are unconfirmed reports that he snuggles with his Oscar statuette at night. Gore is the one horse who can afford to wait before taking the plunge, but the clock is ticking. Enjoy it, Mr. Veep, you haven’t been this popular or relevant since inventing the Internet. (previous ranking: #10)
	Chris Dodd			Senator Dodd will no-doubt raise a few eyebrows when first quarter fundraising reports come in at the end of March. He’s rumored to be raising money at a surprising clip for a second-tier horse. He might have been voted Most Likely to Succeed in high school, but was he voted Most Likely to Break the Senate Curse by Winning the White House? Doubtful. (previous ranking: #7)
	Joe Biden			Clearly Biden is still recovering from his “articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy” brain malfunction. The Tip Sheet hears his stump speech is very impressive, but almost no one is listening. He’s reportedly drawing very meager crowds. Is that because he unintentionally offended some African Americans, or just because he’s Joe Biden? (previous ranking: #5)
	Dennis Kucinich			Congressman Kucinich’s anti-war message makes him more popular with the grassroots than his ranking would indicate. He’s the only democrat running who doesn’t have to apologize for voting neither for the war nor its funding. He can’t win, but that shouldn’t keep America from dreaming of a First Lady Elizabeth Kucinich. Vavavoom! (previous ranking: #8)
	Wes Clark			Clark’s most recent comment on 2008 was, “I haven’t said I’m not running.” The General has impressively raised his profile of late by becoming a vocal and leading opponent of the Bush administration’s approach to Iran. But no one likes an indecisive General. Unless he makes a decision very soon, there will be no one left to raise his money and fetch his bottled water. (previous ranking: #9)
	Mike Gravel			Gravel is so old he makes Jimmy Carter look like a college cheerleader. That’s all we got, sorry Gravel fans. At least he’s ranked and has a green arrow. Baby steps, people, baby steps. (previous ranking: unranked)

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The GOP Horse Tip Sheet

Power Ranking	The Horse		Momentum	The Tip Sheet
	Rudy Giuliani			Rudy is giving “surge” a whole new meaning, and it’s proving to be considerably more popular than Bush’s version. In the past month the former mayor has picked up ten points while McCain has dropped six. Rudy now leads 44-21. So begins the waiting game. Which horse will be the first to beat Rudy’s over the head with his sizable skeletons? (previous ranking: #1)
tie	Mitt Romney			Romney had a surprisingly strong showing in the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll, taking first over Rudy, Brownback and Gingrich. He’s also just come out as the top choice in an LA Times survey of RNC insiders. However, all this mojo is muted by his inability to crack double digits in the major polls. Time is on his side, but he can’t be stuck 40 points behind Rudy forever. At some point those fat checks from donors will disappear faster than a Taylor Hicks album. (previous ranking: #3)
tie	John McCain			Senators McCain and Clinton have more in common than meets the eye. Both are suffering from a nasty case of frontrunneritis. It’s tough to run an entire race from the lead, and he’s slowed enough in recent weeks to let Rudy fly right by. If McCain wants to regain momentum, he might start by firing the staffer who suggested that skipping CPAC was a good idea. Nevertheless, he’s still the establishment favorite with impressive endorsements, talented staff, and the benefit of knowing that he’s been tested on this stage. Rudy and Romney have not. (previous ranking: #2)
	Mike Huckabee			Huckabee impressed at CPAC with a generally well-received speech. While he doesn’t have to apologize or spin his positions on issues like abortion, gay rights, gun rights and free speech, he does have a sizable hurdle of his own. According to conservatives in-the-know, his record as a tax-hiker in Arkansas could doom him. They were burned with Bush 41 and could be reluctant to make the same mistake. (previous ranking: #5)
	Newt Gingrich			Following Newt’s movements at CPAC was easy, just look for the throng of fans trailing him through the hotel lobby. Students love him, conservative old-schoolers still carry mini-versions of his Contract with America in their breast pockets, and even the other horses admire his intellect and sense of vision. Can he win? Not in 2008. But as one conservative icon told the Tip Sheet, we can put Newt at the top of the 2012 rankings right now. (previous ranking: #6)
	Sam Brownback			Brownback could have invaded Maryland with all the supporters his campaign brought to CPAC. For all the talk about Romney’s efforts, Brownback’s team was a close second in both numbers and buzz. He is remarkably popular with the college crowd, and his third place showing in the straw poll is encouraging. The Tip Sheet has suggested that one of these Senator horses put all their manure on the table and leave the Senate to run full-time from outside the beltway. Could Brownback be the one? (previous ranking: #4)
	Duncan Hunter			Hunter must be smiling at his surprising showing in the much-publicized South Carolina straw poll. He came in third, but just 6 votes behind winner John McCain. Could this give him momentum? Can he raise enough money to compete? Can he raise his national name ID above zero? (previous ranking: #7)
	Tommy Thompson			Thompson has had difficulty finding any traction during the early stages of the race. The Tip Sheet predicts Thompson could be the first GOPer to leave the race and hop on another horse. (previous ranking: #8)
	Jim Gilmore			While the other candidates spent much of their time in the greenroom and in various receptions, former Virginia Governor Gilmore worked the lobby, the hallways, and the hotel’s restaurant. Gilmore was everywhere introducing himself and his candidacy. Given this effort, his lackluster performance in the straw poll was one of the weekend’s bigger surprises. (previous ranking: #9)
	Ron Paul			There are good bets, long shots, and Ron Paul. Welcome to the rankings, Congressman. Today he’s just a bli in the national polls–he aspires to be a full blip–but he does boast a very active online fan base. (previous ranking: unranked)

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