John Kerry pulled a major shocker in the Iowa caucus in 2004, surging to victory over the favorites Howard Dean and Dick Gebhardt. Many pundits attribute the negative campaign war between the Dean and Gebhardt campaigns leading up to Iowa as one of the main reasons for Kerry’s stunning victory.

The momentum he scored in Iowa lead Kerry to win the nominations before losing to Dubbya in the general election.

This leads of course to the question, can someone in 2008 repeat John Kerry’s stunning victory in Iowa?

And so I will now look at the possible Kerrys on both sides of the coin and introduce to you all the KerryScale(tm).


Bill Richardson has been the lead horse in the second tier for a long time now, but his impressive resume started becoming less attractive to many when he opened his mouth. I’m still stunned how someone who professes to be a baseball fan could say he likes the Yankees and the Red Sox. It’s like saying you are a Democrat and a Republican.

KerryScale rating: 2

Two Kerrys

Joe Biden has been impressive in the debates and in a couple of recent polls has moved past Richardson into fourth in Iowa. He has been coy in saying that for his campaign to live past Iowa, he’ll need to crack into the top three. I think he has the best shot of any Dem to pull a Kerry.

KerryScale rating: 3

Three Kerrys

Dennis Kucinich is polling 2% in Iowa. That sounds about right.

KerryScale rating: 1/2

Half Kerry


Rudy Giuliani has spent little time and money in Iowa, yet he appears to be holding on to third place behind Huckabee and Romney. If Huck and Mittens start mudslinging at each other, we could see a Kerry-like scenario for Rudy.

KerryScale rating: 2.5

2.5 Kerrys

Fred Thompson needs to wake up and remember he is actually running for President. If he does he could also benefit from a Huckabee/Romney voter fatigue scenario. Someone nudge Fred please, he’s snoring.

KerryScale rating: 1

1 Kerry

Ron Paul has crept up slightly with his polling numbers in Iowa, but Paul seems a better fit to make waves with the more independently-minded voters in New Hampshire. If there was a McCainScale for NH, Paul would be 3 McCains there at least. Not so much in Iowa.

KerryScale: 1/2

Half Kerry

Oh, and if you haven’t voted in my Iowa/NH poll yet, please check it out and post.