Panel of pundits say there’s no predicting primary
Posted on November 28th, 2007 at 11:53 am by David Kaiser, EditorThere is nothing more fun then contradicting yourself. In my previous post, I’ve encouraged all of you out there in political junkie land to make your predictions on who will win the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.
And then I saw this little piece in the Philadelphia Daily News today regarding a panel of political experts who spoke at a forum at the Four Seasons Hotel in Philadelphia last night.
Here’s what they came up with:
All agreed that just a month out, the race is still impossible to call.
Hrm. I guess the timing of my prediction post was a little off, but hey, it happens.
A former Reagan administration official put it best:
“If the Democratic race is fluid, the Republican race is absolute chaos,” said Kenneth Duberstein, a former chief of staff to President Ronald Regan.
But there is a light at the end of the tunnel according to the panel:
All the panelists thought the nominees for each party would likely be determined after Super Tuesday on Feb. 5 - the day when more than 20 presidential primaries are held.
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Nice of them to wait until the award ceremony to decide isn’t it?
You want us to make our predictions, then you tell us they don’t matter. I smell a flip flop, j/k :)…
This is a new election, no one really knows what’s gonna happen. But anyone’s guess is as good as the pundits. Good series of posts (sincere).
I was wondering if someone was going to call me on the carpet for that.
Thanks AndDru1
I think Romney will escape with a close (within 6 points) victory in Iowa over Huckabee. This will inevitably take away some of Romney’s ’steam’ that he is supposed to build there. However, he will also win in NH, but that will be overshadowed by Ron Paul’s surprising 3rd place finish in the high teens to low twenties. Mitt will also win South Carolina, but this will be overshadowed by the narrow margin. However, the combination of these three, in addittion to a strong finish in Michigan will get him a little bit of steam going into Tsunami Tuesday. Here is where it gets interesting: Superbowl Sunday. Just a few short days before Tsunami Tuesday we will have the largest NATIONALLY broadcast sports event in history. Will any of the candidates buy a spot? Romney certainly has a near-unlimited supply of his own cash, and a buy here might just be what he needs to head into Feb. 5th with enough steam to finish top two or even pull off some of the closer ones with Giuliani. After Tuesday, I think it will still be too close to call, and I disagree with the pundits there. I think this one goes down to the wire between Mitt and Rudy, and it may very well head to the National Convention without a clear winner. If it does, I think Romney wins it in the end due to Giuliani’s Liberal Values, although that is not set in stone. In the end, I put Romney and Giuliani each at about 40% to win the nomination, with a slight edge to Romney in the end.
I can’t wait.
I think any candidate that buys a spot for the Superbowl(tm) will be vilified. By then, the people will be sick and tired of politics and want a candidate free Sunday of great football to get away from it all.
Depends if it’s funny or not.
[…] Despite the fact that in my very next post, I told you all that political pundits basically said you can’t predict the races, I’m glad to see 30 or so PD denizens and contributors put their predictions down in cyberspace. […]