Huckabee charging hard in Iowa

By David Kaiser, Editor

Filed Under Race for White House 2008 on Nov 15 

In the wacky, roller-coaster affair that is the 2008 Republican Primary race, long shot candidate Mike Huckabee has suddenly become a serious player in the fast-approaching Iowa caucus.

Huckabee was last heard from when he finished a strong second in Iowa’s Ames Straw Poll in August. Pundits argued if the cash-strapped Huckabee campaign could take advantage of the press that came with its strong finish. And for a while, it really didn’t seem like they could take advantage.

Enter two polls – a CBS News/New York Times that came out November 13, and one from the American Research Group from between November 10 and 14 – has Huckabee charging in Iowa faster than a socialite with a platinum card on Black Friday.

Huckabee has rocketed past Giuliani, McCain and Thompson, all of whom wrote Iowa off to Mitt months ago.

The Huckabee surge raises two very interesting issues.

First, if Huck can win or finish a strong second to Romney in Iowa, it will throw a serious wrench into Mitt’s strategy. If he doesn’t have the momentum from Iowa, Romney faces a tougher fight in New Hampshire, where Giuliani has begun to campaign harder and where McCain has historical strength among the Granite State’s independent-minded voters. In other words – a strong Huckabee finish in Iowa poses a serious threat to Romney.

The second issue is, again assuming Huckabee has a strong finish in Iowa, does Huckabee become the major story and become a part of the conversation? If he does well in Iowa, he just needs to finish respectable in New Hampshire and try to make it to South Carolina, where his southern roots and conservative credentials could catapult him into the mix for the nomination.

Personally, I think the first issue is a lot more likely than the second, but this certainly adds yet another wrinkle to a campaign season that has more of them than a 90-year-old man’s rear-end.

Comments

  • Frank

    I don’t trust a Fox poll. Fox is part of the pro-Rudy Republican Elitist class. Rassmussen is a better indicator.

  • TL

    joe gores,

    You are correct, I think it will be Giuliani/Huckabee.

  • AndDru1

    Good post David, thanks for covering the advances in Huck’s campaign.

  • DhaMan

    Dear Gary:
    Thank you for your well reasoned and patient post. I look forward to your continued posts.

    Let’s say we agree to disagree . This includes on what good and evil ultimately is about and its impact on if evil should die. Since I admit
    this thinking isn’t always mainstream, yes, I conceed the apparent contradiction won’t change a majority of the Huckabee supporters.
    A discussion would take away from Huckabee so this will be my last post on this topic.

    I hope you find the candidate that you are looking for. I hope we get a President that
    heal the terrible internal wounds in this nation.

    Thank you

  • Robin

    Rudy, Rudy, Rudy!!!!!!!

    Rasmussen 11/16

    Rudy Giuliani 29%
    Mike Huckabee 12%
    Mitt Romney 12%
    Fred Thompson 12%
    John McCain 10%
    Ron Paul 5%

  • joe gores

    Huckabee will be Rudy’s VP choice!!! Go Rudy!!!

  • David Kaiser

    It’s always good to know you aren’t the only one to think something:

    http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/11/16/scenarios_for_the_gop/

  • Gary Russell

    DhaMan,

    I’ll admit – I have concerns about Huckabee’s record on taxes when he was governor (though I thought he had some good explanations for most of it on “Hannity & Colmes” last night).

    However, being both pro-death penalty and pro-life has never given any candidate a problem. It is a red herring used by those who already disagree with one or both of those positions.

    Voters already either:

    a) Feel that it is a conflicting position (as you seem to feel); or

    b)Understand the clear moral distinction between murder of innocents versus execution of the most vile murderers in our society.

    Whichever way one feels, their opinion of Huckabee isn’t going to change one iota either way. Total non-issue.

  • DhaMan

    Huckabee is peaking at the right time — to be destroyed. Candidates can pick on at his record on taxes and pro-death penalty versus being pro-life and rip him to shreds. He will not hold up not being Mr. Nice Guy.

    Romney is the master of the stealth tax and yet
    he says he is against tax increases. He also
    has a temper that will blow up at some point in
    a public setting.

    Meantime, Ron Paul steadily creeps up especially in New Hampshire…

  • Michael

    I don’t know how anyone can concentrate on percentages with the image of a “90-year-old man’s rear-end” lingering… Bleh.

  • TL

    With 29+ states moving their primaries up to February 5th or earlier, the national polls do have more significance than in 04.

    We will have a very good idea who will be the GOP nominee on February 6th.

  • David Kaiser

    Lisa,

    I agree. John Kerry was at 7% nationally in 2004 in the weeks leading up to Iowa.

    After he won Iowa and New Hampshire, he was at 54%.

  • Lisa

    At this point I think state polls are more important than national polls.

  • TL

    New Fox News Poll, Rudy is taking off!

    Rudy Giuliani 33%
    John McCain 17%
    Fred Thompson 12%
    Mike Huckabee 8%
    Mitt Romney 8%